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Demographics Of Minnesota’s Economic Outlook

Demographics Of Minnesota’s Economic Outlook. Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration February 2008. Minnesota’s Economic Demography In The Short Run. In the short run, economics dominates demographics

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Demographics Of Minnesota’s Economic Outlook

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  1. Demographics Of Minnesota’s Economic Outlook Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration February 2008

  2. Minnesota’s Economic Demography In The Short Run • In the short run, economics dominates demographics • Slow job growth this decade has slowed migration, and therefore population growth

  3. 1990-97 Minnesota Added 312,0002000-07 Minnesota Added 278,000 Census Bureau estimate. Minnesota averaged 1.18% annual growth in the 90s, compared with 0.79% To date In the 00s . The US is growing at 1% per year

  4. Minnesota’s Economic Demography In The Mid-Term—2008-2013 • Short run economics begins to merge with long run demographics • High school graduates will peak in a year • Retirements may increase sharply this year

  5. Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007

  6. Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008 2005 ACS

  7. Minnesota’s Economic Demography In The Long Run • Minnesota will grow, but some areas will continue to decline • Housing market may see changes • Retirements will increase, even if initially delayed • Workforce growth will depend increasingly on migration and immigration • Whether the slower growth affects economic growth depends on productivity

  8. Childless Couples And 1-person Households Projected To Grow Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

  9. Migration Will Be An Increasingly Important Component To The Slowing Labor Force Growth State Demographer projection revised 2007

  10. Thoughts On Economic Theory • Economic growth depends on • Growth in the workforce • Growth in productivity per worker • Productivity per worker depends on • Technology and machines • Public infrastructure • Knowledge, skills, training and education

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