Chap1: Winning is Every Thing

1. Chap1: Winning is Every Thing • 新產品戰爭 • 新產品：企業成功的關鍵 • 高失敗率 • 【新】產品的【新】 • 創新與績效 • 本書結構

2. 新產品戰爭 • 戰爭的隱喻 • G5國家每日花在創新的費用>整個Gulf war費用 • 全球化使戰爭更加慘烈 • 不創新就是輸家

3. 新產品戰爭 • 速度與變動 • 變動的時代中，速度為核心的競爭武器 • 速度產生高報酬 • 速度意謂著較少的驚訝 • 追求速度，不能以有效專案管理為代價

4. 新產品戰爭 • 策略與戰術 • 策略（chapter 12) • 創新的方向、創新的戰場選擇 • 多專案的資源配置、科技策略 • 戰術(chapter 2~11) • 單一專案中有效、有效率的專案管理

5. 新產品：企業成功的關鍵 • 平均而言，新產品營收佔整體營收之33%。（五年內謂之新產品） • 公司別比較（22% Best vs Rest) • 新產品佔營收％：49.2% vs 25.2% • 新產品佔利潤%：49.2% vs 22% • 由ideas變成一成功商品：3.5 vs 8.4 • 產品別比較（ 203產品中的2/3商品化，1/3失敗) • ROI：平均值96.9%, 中數值 33% • 回收年數：平均值2.49, 中數值 2 • 市場佔有率：平均值47.3%, 中數值 35%

6. 新產品：企業成功的關鍵 • R&D Spending by Industry(Table 1.1 ,1998, US) • R& D Spending: 127.9 billion • R&D/Sale: 4.4% (0.6%~12.3%) • R&D/Profit: 50.7% (6.7%~415.4%; 3產業>100%) • R&D spending not = innovation • 新產品績效決定因子之一 • R&D $ < 40% 產品創新費用 • 其為最強的預測指標，但只能解釋16% (R square的概念)

7. 新產品：企業成功的關鍵 • 資本市場的引導 • Fortune Survey: value as a long-term investment • 最強的預測指標：degree of innovativeness of the company • Secret: new ideas and new products are the key

8. 新產品：企業成功的關鍵 • 創新的（環境）驅動力 • 技術進步 • 變動的消費者需求 • 產品生命週期縮短(figure 1.2, 50年縮短成1/4) • 全球化競爭加劇 • 這四個驅動力在未來10~20年不會消失。

9. 工作表 • What is your historical level of R&D spending as a % of sales? Has it been going up or down? How does it compare to your competitor’s or industry level(table 1.1)? Why is it highter or lower? • What % of your current sales comes from new products introduced by you in the past 5 years? What is the projection or objective for the future? What will your portfolio of products look like in five years? • Where will your sales growth come from? What % is from new products? From new markets? From growth in existing markets? Or from increased market share? • Are the answers to three questions about consistent with each other? Are you investing enough in R&D and new products to yield the results that you want?

10. 高失敗率 • 新產品開發失敗率：25% ~ 45%。 • Product Development and management Association(PDMA)：成功率59%，自1990年僅增加1%。 • 90%, 35%, 作者：33% • Figure 1.3 磨耗曲線 • 7 ideas, 4 development, 1.5 launched, 1 succeeds. • 11, 3, 1.3, 1 • 46%資源，products canceled or fail to yield financial return. • 但卻有公司達到80%成功率。

11. 高失敗率 • 以賽馬、梭哈為隱喻 • 這是一場大籌碼、少數獲勝的博奕 • 博奕高手平均的成功率，超出常人 • Keep score • 加碼與退出的decision rules

12. 工作表 • How well is your company faring in the new product game? Do you even know? (most companies connot provide statistics on success, fail and kill rates, or on resources spent on winners versus losers) • Keep score in the new product game, key statistics: • Success vs failure rates at launch • Attrition rates & curve: % of projects continune at each stage of the process? • % of resources devoted to winners vs losers vs killed projects

13. 【新】產品的【新】 High Newness to Company Low Low Newness to market High

14. 工作表 • Review the new products that your business has introduced in the past 5 year. Make a complete list. Then categorize them according to the six type in figure 1.4. Then questions: • What is the splite of projects by type (% pie, F 1.5)? Does it differ mush from the all-industry averages ahown in Figure 1.5? Why? • Pie by total resources spent? • Pie by sales and profits? • Is the pie the desirable one? What shoud be? (F 1.5 as benchmark)

15. 創新與績效 • U shape of low-moderate-highly Innovation, • F1.6 • ROI, Success Rate, Market Share • Success rates and new product performance do depend on the product type or newness of the product. • 迷思：highly innovative products are too risky for your company and that they have a negative performance.