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What Can Wind Do for Energy Security?

What Can Wind Do for Energy Security?. Hisashi Hoshi The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Quantum Leap in Wind :Overcoming Challenges and Building Momentum in Asia Manila, 20-21 June 2011. Energy In security of Japan (Contingent Risks Experienced). On and after March 11 Blackout

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What Can Wind Do for Energy Security?

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  1. What Can Wind Do for Energy Security? Hisashi Hoshi The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Quantum Leap in Wind :Overcoming Challenges and Building Momentum in Asia Manila, 20-21 June 2011

  2. Energy Insecurity of Japan(Contingent Risks Experienced) • On and after March 11 • Blackout • Cutoffs of water and gas supply • No Oil : Gasoline, Diesel, Heating Kerosene • Summer 2011 • All-out effort to avoid power shortage in the midst of nuclear disaster

  3. TEPCO on Alert (Source :TEPCO Homepage)

  4. Energy Insecurity of Japan (Structural Risks, Additional) • Unpredictable Nuclear Power Outlook • 14 Planned units by 2030 in Question • Local authorities’ resistance to restart of idle reactors.

  5. Mtoe 8,000 6,000 7% 18% 4,000 China India Japan Japan Korea Taiwan Indonesia India Malaysia Philippines 13% Thailand Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong 12% 2,000 Other Asia 51% China 51% 0 1971 1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2030 2035 Growing China and India Primary Energy Demand (Asia) (Source:IEEJ)

  6. Vulnerable Asia Supply and Demand of Oil in Asia Mtoe . 2,500 Demand Production Net import 1,901 2,000 1,720 1,548 1,500 1,380 1,353 1,067 990 1,000 695 612 479 500 390 372 367 353 304 308 250 229 0 1980 1990 2008 2020 2030 2035 (Source:IEEJ)

  7. More Renewables! • Japan (1974) CSP (Sunshine Program) • Brazil (1981) Bioethanol • China (2006) Renewable Energy Law • Japan (2011) “Rooftop PV on 10 mil. houses”

  8. Does Wind work for Energy Security? • Risks to address • Physical Shortage • Concentration of supply source • Transportation (chokepoint) • Geopolitical instability • Energy mix portfolio • Price volatility

  9. Does Wind work for Energy Security? • Some drawbacks of wind power • Variability • Distance from Demand Centre • Social Acceptance

  10. Social Acceptance Ugly Beautiful

  11. Conclusion • While Energy Security must be achieved through multiple measures, RE including wind power will best serve the end. • Wind Power has its drawbacks. But they are surmountable, and tolerable if benefits are considered.

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