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Factor 10-symposium, 25 November 2005

Factor 10-symposium, 25 November 2005. Swedish Formens Hus: House of Design. Wouter van Dieren Director, IMSA Amsterdam Member, Factor 10 Group Member, the Club of Rome. In this story. The Limits to Growth and the Tower of Babel or How art can tell a scientific story better.

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Factor 10-symposium, 25 November 2005

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  1. Factor 10-symposium, 25 November 2005 Swedish Formens Hus: House of Design Wouter van Dieren Director, IMSA Amsterdam Member, Factor 10 Group Member, the Club of Rome

  2. In this story The Limits to Growth and the Tower of Babel or How art can tell a scientific story better

  3. World-III model Interactive feed-back loops between population growth, industrial production, pollution, food production and resource depletion In scenarios: hypotheses about growth rate andinnovation catalysts

  4. The Club of Rome reportLimits to Growth, 1972

  5. Limits to Growth, The 30-Year Update, 2004 • Most figures confirmed • Overshoot and collapse 2050 on scheduleor faster Ecological footprintsurpasses carrying capacityof the Earth

  6. Oil and gas Oil production peaks before 2020 Source: Defeyes, 2001: Hubbert’s Peak Gas Source: Meadows et al. 2004: Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update

  7. The story was heard • Since 1972: • Energy saving • Pollution control • Regulation • Treaties (O3) • yet • Climate change • Denial, rejection, business as usual

  8. The Tower of Babel by Pieter Breughel the Elder (ca. 1525-1569) The ultimate metaphor for Limits to Growth • Citizens of Babylon: pride, arrogance • Reach out for God in Heaven • Tower as a symbol and a staircase • To reach the Divine Throne • But the goal was not achieved WHY?

  9. Tower construction • Centuries of building • In the end, no more progress • Instead: fall and decline • And the Great Confusion of Tongues • Hence: no more communication etc.

  10. Long voyage • Construction Romanesque; example was the Colosseum • Diameter now: x kilometer? • Spiral road to the top • People, cargo up: 1, 2 days • People, waste down: 1, 2 days • The longer the spiral, the longer the voyage

  11. Long voyage-2 Beginning: resources from nearby Later: ever longer distances Consequence: Resources for the longer voyages over land and seas, not for the tower

  12. Long voyage-3 Consequence: Part of the delivered materials and goods no longer for construction, but for repair, maintenance, food for workers, housing up there, firewood, …

  13. One day All resources, labour, capital, management go to transport, repair, maintenance, waste handling, pollution control, regulation… And the towerstops growing;it even starts to collapse

  14. Unfortunately, also in Babylon there are economists • They sit in offices next to the Spiral entry • They count the incoming cargo • They count the delivered services and the production • They do not discount the efforts of transport, repair, maintenance, pollution, conflict … • And they call the counting Growth

  15. The Babylonic ambition is to grow till the end of time • Their reality is the opposite • Their magicians tell them to yet continue, as they only see growth • Their society, though, lives in ever greater confusion

  16. Today’s confusion of tongues: the non-understanding of the paradoxes of growth

  17. All architecture is assembled materials All materials contain environment equivalents Or CO2-units These can be calculated and managed Then reduced by a factor 10 or more Still delivering the same result So it can be done! Art, Design, Factor 10

  18. We said: Overshoot and collaps in 2050 30-years update: confirmation Sea-level rise 50 cm (IPCC) 2100 Sea-level rise 1-3 meters Global warming: increase of instability So more heat, cold, drought, water Typhoons: frequency higher + stronger Forecast

  19. Market-fundamentalism Market as target, not as tool The Kartel Texas Oil, Texas Weapons, the American Army, the Pentagon, the White House Christian Fundamentalism Muslim Fundamentalism Return of Autocracies Globalisation, Americanisation The current World Model

  20. What People want & what Power decides Global 8% 44% • For the Common Good • (Brundtland) • Global solidarity • The end of Ideology • (Fukyama) • Global Market • Free trade Solidarity Efficiency • Small is beautiful • (Schumacher) • No Logo (Klein) • Caring Region • Clash of Civilisations • (Huntingdon) • Safe Region 15% Regional 33%

  21. Creativity Challenge The Common Good Sustainability Prevention Rigidity Complacency I, me and myself Growth, expansion Repair, waste, control The future Confusion Poverty, depletion Clarity Equity ?

  22. The Club of Rome told an old story • Art is a powerful instrument • Today’s global economy is the • Tower of Babel

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