Advanced Issues in International Trade in Goods Statistics - ESTP Course

1. ESTP course on'Advanced issues in International Trade in Goods Statistics' 2-4 April 2014 QUALITY HANDBOOK

2. The ITGS Quality Handbook A document integrated in the ITGS Quality Assurance Framework and playing an important role as regards the data quality monitoring and improvement

3. The ITGS Quality Assurance Framework

4. Quality Handbook – Key features • A component of the ITGS Quality Assurance Framework • A document complementing the ITGS Guidelines • A document targeting the ITGS compilers • Main objectives • Describe the ITGS Quality Assurance Framework • Document the annual quality reporting and assessment procedure • Promote desirable methods and practices

5. Quality Handbook – In four volumes • A document composed of 4 volumes: • Volume I – Quality Assurance Framework • Volume II – Quality items and requirements • Volume III – Desirable methods and practices • Volume IV – Quality Information on ITGS (QUIET) • State of play • Volumes I, II and IV available but updates needed • Volume III under development

6. Quality Handbook – More on Volume III • A large spectrum of possible topics considering that the quality covers the relevance, the accuracy, the timeliness and punctuality, the comparability and the coherence • Relevant topics: any methods, procedures, steps of the statistical process impacting the data quality

7. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIHow to tackle a topic? • Step 1 – Gather existing documentations or collect information through a stocktaking exercise (dedicated questionnaire sent to MSs) • Step 2 – Discuss key features through the angle of possible new recommendations and encouragements • Step 3 – Draft the QH section dedicated to that particular topic • Step 4 – Endorsement by ITGS WG dealing with quality

8. Quality Handbook – Volume IIITopics covered till now • Tools for reconciliation of intra-EU trade statistics STEP 4 • Estimates for missing intra-EU trade: trade below threshold and non/late response STEP 3 • Quality checklist STEP 3 • Confidentiality practices STEP 2 • Revision policies STEP 2 • Compilation of statistical value STEP 1

9. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • A set of requirements • 2 legal requirements • 3 recommendations and 1 encouragement already in force • 7 new recommendations and 2 encouragements to be proposed for endorsement to the ITGS Steering Group • Overview and detailed descriptions of alternative estimation methods

10. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • Legal requirements • Member States shall provide the Commission (Eurostat) with monthly results which cover their total trade in goods by using estimates, where necessary. • Adjustments shall be transmitted to Eurostat with at least a breakdown by partner country and product code at two-digit level of the Combined Nomenclature.

11. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • Recommendations and encouragements in force • When adjustments for trade below threshold [for non and late response] are compiled at CN8 level, it is recommended to estimate and transmit to Eurostat not only the trade value but also the net mass and the supplementary quantity wherever relevant. • When transmitting intra EU adjustments, Eurostat recommends the use of DOC MET 400 threshold indicators 3 (adjustment for trade below the exemption threshold) and 4 (adjustment for late and non-response trade above the exemption threshold) instead of indicator 8 (adjustments for trade below the exemption threshold and late/non-response) • Before deciding to use VIES data, NSAs are encouraged to analyse the differences between data on partner country in Intrastat and VIES at PSI level.

12. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • New recommendations and encouragements • Objective: move towards more accurate estimates • Scope: identification and use of the best data source(s) for the estimation of the missing total trade and the allocation by product and partner • Smooth approach: consideration of the national constraints as regards the availability and quality of data sources, encouragements versus recommendations

13. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • New recommendation 3 How to estimate the total trade below threshold? It is recommended to estimate the total trade below the exemption threshold by using the most reliable data sources – current month’s or historical administrative data (VIES or VAT) – available at the time the estimation process should be launched.

14. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • New recommendation 4 How to estimate the non-respondents' total trade? It is recommended to estimate the total trade of PSIs late in submitting their Intrastat declarations by using the most reliable data sources – current month’s or historical administrative data (VAT or VIES), current month’s or historical Intrastat data – available at the time the estimation process should be launched.

15. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • New recommendation 5 How to allocate the below threshold trade by product & partner? It is recommended to allocate the estimated total trade below the exemption threshold by product and partner Member State by using data collected from the most similar traders above the exemption threshold. ‘Most similar traders’ should be understood as traders with a most similar activity or/and of most similar size. ‘Traders with a most similar activity’ means ‘traders with the same NACE activity code or with a NACE activity code as similar as possible’. ‘Traders of most similar size’ means ‘just-above-threshold traders’. As regards the allocation by partner Member State, an alternative to the use of most similar traders’ data would consist in applying the pattern captured from VIES data.

16. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • New recommendation 6 How to allocate the non-respondents' total trade by product & partner? As regards the PSIs late in submitting their Intrastat declarations, it is recommended to allocate the estimated total trade by product and partner Member State by using their historical Intrastat data or, if not available or if too obsolete, by using Intrastat data collected from the most similar traders. ‘Most similar traders’ should be understood as traders with a most similar activity or/and of most similar size. ‘Traders with a most similar activity’ means ‘traders with the same NACE activity code or with a NACE activity code as similar as possible’. ‘Traders of most similar size’ means ‘traders with trade value or turnover as similar as possible’. As regards the allocation by partner Member State, an alternative to the use of historical Intrastat data or of similar traders’ data would consist in applying the pattern captured from VIES data.

17. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • New encouragement 1 NSAs are encouraged to regularly assess the quality of the administrative data – VAT and VIES data – in terms of accuracy, timeliness and also comparability with Intrastat data where possible – in the view of: (1) identifying the most appropriate estimation methods for trade below threshold and non/late response; (2) measuring how far VIES data can be used to allocate the estimates for missing intra-EU trade by partner Member State; (3) measuring how far the administrative data can be used to control the quality of Intrastat data.

18. Quality Handbook – Volume IIIEstimates for missing intra-EU trade • Overview and detailed descriptions of alternative estimation methods – Example of the non/late/partial response estimation

21. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !Anne BERTHOMIEUEurostat – Unit G5Anne.Berthomieu-Cristallo@ec.europa.eu+352-4301-33616