A Strategic Approach to Environmental Prediction: Evolving Perspectives from Canada

1. A Strategic Approach to Environmental Prediction: Evolving Perspectives from Canada Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop Stuttgart, Germany March 12-13, 2007 Mark Cantwell Federal Department of the Environment Canada Environment Canada Environement Canada

2. Presentation Objectives & Outline Workshop Objective To explore and close the “disconnect” between numerical modelling and policy development Presentation Premise • “Disconnect” is a moving target that consists of varying scales and levels: today’s gap is not tomorrow’s gap • That policy makers are not interested in “models” per se, they are interested in (and sometimes afraid of) predictive decision-support tools that help minimise societal risk and maximise opportunities • Thus critical to establish a mechanism for continuously evaluating & responding to the changing disconnect: meeting policy needs requires a strategic approach Presentation Objective To covey the lessons learned by Environment Canada during development of such a mechanism

3. Context for Presentation “Environmental Prediction is the future of this Department” Deputy Minister, Environment Canada, May 2005 • Summer 2005: Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) began to investigate & promote the benefits of/demands for EP and to formulate a strategic approach that would lead to: • Widespread appreciation of EP and its potential • Enhanced strategic Departmental investments for policy development & program delivery • A draft EP Framework has since been developed and endorsed by senior managers responsible for Environment Canada’s MSC Branch, Science & Technology Branch, and Operations & Infrastructure Branch, as well as various other senior regional managers. • Next phase: initiating discussions concerning implementation of the EP Strategic Framework and potential implications for national policy development in Canada

4. Foresight Outlooks Weeks Applications to: What is EP and why is it needed? From: NOAA Leadership Seminar Simple Definition “Using knowledge of the natural and socioeconomic sciences to project likely or conditional states of the natural world over any time frame” Risk = (probability of Hazard) x (Vulnerability) [i.e., significance of impact] …It’s about assessing risks/opportunities for sustainable development Opportunity = (probability of Reward) x (significance of Reward)

5. Know your audience: why do policy-makers need EP? Generally: EP is a fundamental requirement for sustainable development • EP helps government to fulfil legal and leadership responsibilities not only for the environment, but for human health and safety and prosperity • EP help industry must maximize Return on Investment Specifically: EP is a requirement for environmental policy development • Identifies emerging policy issues • Diagnoses/contextualises policy issues • Generates policy options • More than a tool: a policy instrument • Evidence based policy making: accountability • Integrates pillars of sustainability EP that is integrative/contextual and receptor-based is more likely to better inform adaptation and mitigation policies

6. Organising Principles that link knowledge to action First task, first lesson: • Evaluating user needs is complex, requires significant effort • Social sciences advocate “co-production” between users & developers: leads to innovation, effectiveness, relevancy • Requires “communities of action” and integration Recommended readings: David Cash, Clark, Alcock, et al (2002). Salience, Credibility, Legitimacy and Boundaries: Linking Research, Assessment and Decision Making. John F. Kennedy School of Government. Harvard University Faculty Research Working Paper Series. RWP02-046. David W. Cash, Borck, Patt (2006) Countering the “Loading Dock” Approach to Linking Science and Decision-Making: Comparative Analysis of El Nino Southern Oscillation Forecasting Systems. Journal of Science, Technology & Human Values, Vol. 31, No. 4, 465-494 National Center for Atmospheric Research Vision :“…to help optimize the use of natural resources, NCAR must create the knowledge and the tools needed to reach a full predictive understanding of the Earth as a system, including its human dimensions….

7. User Needs (incl. policy) Evaluation & Adaptation A+ EP Priorities (EC’s + partners) Dissemination & Promotion Research Infrastructure/Operations Monitoring/Data Collection EP-Based Decision Making Environmental Prediction Creation Cycle Process Convene Translate Collaborate Mediate Legitimacy Credibility Relevancy Feedback loops implicit Knowledge/Tool Development

8. EXAMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION VISION Canada creates a safe, prosperous and sustainable future for themselves and the global commons by wisely applying environmental prediction knowledge and tools to their decision-making processes. EXAMPLE MISSION Environment Canada champions development and implementation of an EP Strategy by leading, catalyzing, and/or facilitating actions that create environmental prediction knowledge and tools needed by citizens and their governments to best manage risks and create opportunities in the areas of human health and safety, competitiveness and natural capital. Policy Making Principles of Co-Production Integration + communities of action Innovation, efficiency, relevancy

9. Community Building Community Building Community Building Community Building Matrix Management Integrated Strategy Integrated Strategy Integrated Strategy • Efficient • Innovative • Relevant • Innovative EP Framework Function Management Objectives Environmental Outcomes ? ? ? ?

10. Characteristics of Framework Virtues of Framework • Explicit process: “how” is evident, expectations/responsibilities are clear • Needs based: not a solution in search of a problem • Community based: partners coordinated & integrated, synergies captured • Real strategy: EP components self-manage via operating principles • Adaptive: fully responsive to policy priorities Challenges of Framework • Takes time to grow a community & learn via integration • Community-based implies power sharing • Development of new EP knowledge and tools may mean re-allocation or seeking of additional resources

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