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Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007

The Deteriorating Labor Market and Economic Well Being of the Nation’s Teens, Young Adults (20-29 Years Old) and Young Families: A Renewed Call for National Action. Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007 .

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Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007

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  1. The Deteriorating Labor Market and Economic Well Being of the Nation’s Teens, Young Adults (20-29 Years Old) and Young Families: A Renewed Call for National Action Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007

  2. The steep decline in national teen employment prospects since 2000; new historical low, year-round employment rates for teens, especially males, in 2007; the strong path dependence of teen employment • The demise of the teen summer job market; who worked in the summer of 2007; record low summer employment rates in the summer 2007; the case for a revitalized summer jobs programs

  3. Trends in the real weekly earnings of full-time young workers; the declining relative earnings position of young adults • Long-term trends in the real annual earnings of young adult (20-29 year old) men and women by educational attainment; widening gaps in real earnings across young adult • Trends in the lifetime earnings of men and women by educational attainment

  4. Why We Should Care About Declining Real Annual Earnings Among Young Adult Men Without Four Year Degrees, Changes in the Marriage rates of young adult men • Changes in the living arrangements of young male adults • Incarceration rates among young adults by educational attainment • Changes in out-of-wedlock births among young adult women in the U.S. and the state of New York

  5. The changing economic circumstances of young families in the U.S. and consequences for the future economic well-being of their children • Trends in the median real incomes of young families in the U.S. and New York, the very low incomes of families with children • The poverty/near poverty status of young families with own children present in the home • The distribution of income among young families with children in the U.S. and New York

  6. Trends in the Employment to Population Ratios of Teens (16-19) in the U.S., Selected Years 1979 to 2007 (Annual Averages in %)

  7. Trends in the Employment to Population Ratios of Male Teens (16-19) in the U.S., Selected Years 1979 to 2007 (Annual Averages in %)

  8. E/P Ratios by Age Group in the U.S., 2000 and 2006(Annual Averages, in %) “The Great Age Twist in Employment Rates in the U.S.”

  9. Percentage Point Changes in E/P Ratios by Age Group, U.S., 2000-2006 (Annual Averages)

  10. The Share of Growth in Employment Attributed to Teens (16-19 Years Old) in the U.S., Selected Time Periods 1992-2000

  11. Teen Share of National Employment Growth from the Pre-Recession Peak in 2001-I to May-July 2007 and the Job Recovery Period from May-July 2002 to May-July 2007 (Seasonally Adjusted)

  12. Teen Employment Rates in New York: 2006 Averages (ACS) • Teens in New York have been working at rates well below the U.S. average and far below those for the top performing states in the country. • In New York, only 28 percent of teens were employed in a typical month in 2006. The state ranked last on this measure (20-24 percentage points below the top five performers.

  13. Only 1 of 5 high school students in New York were working in 2006, the state ranked 3rd lowest among the 50 states; less than half the employment rate of top five states. • Only 53 of every 100 teenaged high school graduates had any type of job in New York; 5th lowest among the 50 states; 24 to 32 percentage points below the top five.

  14. Only 36 of every 100 teenaged college students worked in New York during 2006; lowest employment rate in the country; 20 to 26 percentage points below the top four state performers.

  15. Employment Rates of All Teens and High School Students in the Top Five and Bottom Five States in the U.S., 2006 (in %)

  16. Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old Non-Enrolled High School Graduates and College Students in the Top Five and Bottom Five States in the U.S., 2006 (in %)

  17. 2006 Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old High School Students in the U.S. by Race/Ethnic Group (in %)

  18. 2006 Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old High School Students in the U.S. by Family Income Relative to Poverty Line (in %)

  19. Rankings of Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Olds in the 20 Largest Cities in the U.S., Total and Enrolled in School, ACS 2006

  20. Rankings of Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old H.S. Graduates and H.S. Dropouts in the 20 Largest U.S. Cities, Total and Enrolled in School, ACS 2006

  21. The Counties of New York With the Six Highest and Six Lowest Teen Employment Rates During 2006

  22. The Projected Change in the Total and the 16-24 Year Old Population of New York State Between 2005 and 2015

  23. Why We Should Care About Improving Teen Employment Prospects, Especially Among High School Students? • In-school employment, especially work based employment, provides teens an opportunity to see the relevance of school based learning for labor market performance – they can see the links between school and work • Improves high school graduation rates among economically disadvantaged youth; dropout rates are highest among disadvantaged youth who do not work in high school

  24. Strongly facilitates the transition from high school to the labor market upon graduation for both those graduating youth who do not immediately enroll in college as well as those who do • Reduces pregnancy rates among teenaged girls; those teenaged girls who live in areas with high employment rates are less likely to become pregnant

  25. Reduces male teen involvement in delinquent behavior, especially property type crimes

  26. Summer Employment Rates of the Nation’s Teens from 2000 to 2007 (in %, Seasonally Adjusted)

  27. Comparisons of Teen Summer Employment Rates in 2000 and 2007 for Gender and Race-Ethnic Groups(Seasonally Adjusted in %) Note: Summer employment rates for Hispanic teens are not seasonally adjusted.

  28. 2007 Summer Employment Rates of theNation’s Teens 16-19 for Gender and Race-Ethnic Groups(in %, Seasonally Adjusted)

  29. Comparisons of the Employment Rates of 16-22 Year Olds in the U.S. by Single Age Group, June – July 2000 and June – July 2007 (in Percent, not Seasonally Adjusted)

  30. Employment/Population Ratios of 16-21 Year Olds by Single Age Group in the June – July Period of 2007(in %, not Seasonally Adjusted)

  31. Employment/Population Ratios of Teens in the U.S. by Household Income, Summer 2007 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

  32. Summer 2007 Employment Rates of Teens byHousehold Income and Selected Race-Ethnic Group (in %, Not Seasonally Adjusted)

  33. Comparisons of Teen Summer Employment Rates in Previous Peak Years and 2007 (Not Seasonally Adjusted, in %)

  34. Estimating the Number of Additional Teens That Would Have Been Employed in the Summer of 2007 if Previous Peak Year Employment Rates Had Been Achieved (in Millions)

  35. The Goals, Planning, Funding, and Design of A New Summer Jobs Program • The primary goal would be for local WIB organizations together with private employers, high schools, colleges, and state/local government to provide both employment and learning opportunities for the nation’s teens, including youth from families with incomes below the low income level (200% of poverty line) • The first year goals would be to provide subsidized and unsubsidized jobs for at least one million teens in the summer of 2008; funds could be used to create subsidized jobs in the public and nonprofit sectors, provide wage subsidizes for private sector employers, and expand unsubsidized job opportunities for teens via strengthened connections with employers

  36. The Goals, Planning, Funding, and Design of A New Summer Jobs Program (Continued) • The funding for the program must be provided immediately by the U.S. Congress to give local and state organizations sufficient time to plan and design the program • Low income teens are the prime target group, but youth from higher income families can be served by the program with subsidized wages for private employers and unsubsidized jobs • A first year funding level of $2 billion will be set by the Congress and allocated to states based on their share of national jobless youth and youth in low income families

  37. The Goals, Planning, Funding, and Design of A New Summer Jobs Program (Continued) • All participants will be expected to participate in learning based activities during the summer. These activities will take place at the worksite in small educational settings in community colleges.

  38. Trends in the Median Real Weekly Earnings of Young Men and Women Employed in Full-Time Wage and Salary Jobs, 1973-2005 (Constant 2005 Dollars)

  39. Median Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed 16-24 Year Olds Relative to Adults 25 Years of Age and Older

  40. Trends in Median Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in the U.S. By Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

  41. Trends in Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in New York By Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

  42. Percent Change in Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in New York by Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

  43. Trends in the Relative Median Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Men in the U.S., by Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

  44. Trends in the Relative Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Men in New York, by Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

  45. Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Males in the U.S. by Level of Educational Attainment, 1979-2005 (in 2005 CPI-U Dollars)

  46. Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Females in the U.S. by Level of Educational Attainment, 1979-2005 (in 2005 CPI-U Dollars)

  47. Percent Change in the Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Adult Males in the U.S. by Their Level of Educational Attainment, 1979-2005

  48. Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Males in the New York by Level of Educational Attainment, 1979-2006 (in 2006 CPI-U Dollars)

  49. Percent Change in the Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Adult Males in New York by Their Level of Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

  50. Marriage Rates of 22-30 Year Old Men By Level of Annual Earnings, U.S., 2006

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