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Agence France Trésor . Sébastien BOITREAUD, Deputy Chief Executive, AgenceFrance Trésor Europlace Stockholm – 29 March 2007. AFT Funding Strategy Focus on Inflation-linked Bonds. 2007 Funding Requirement and Sources. AFT Mandate and Strategy.
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Agence France Trésor Sébastien BOITREAUD, Deputy Chief Executive, AgenceFrance Trésor Europlace Stockholm – 29 March 2007
AFT Funding Strategy • Focus on Inflation-linked Bonds
AFT Mandate and Strategy • Agence France Trésor manages central government debt and cash under the most secure conditions in the best interest of the taxpayer. • In order to minimise debt costs over time, AFT sets priority to stability and predictability. AFT does not aim at beating the market through opportunistic transactions. • AFT seeks the highest liquidity standard, is committed to transparency, and aims at relevance and innovation in the management of the French Republic debt.
Sustained Interest from Non-French Investors Round 24.2% of non euro holdings, end of 2004, CPIS IMF Source: Banque de France
AFT Funding Strategy • Focus on Inflation-linked Bonds
A Structural Demand Index-linked bonds provide: • Ability to invest on a real-yield basis • Diversificationfor portfolio managers • Improved efficient frontier • Good performance record • Better asset and liability matching • Evolution of regulatory and accounting framework will increase demand • Market expectations of future inflation, through inflation break-evens • Valuable indicators for central banks
Optimizing the State’s Balance Sheet Asset-liability management: Revenues are correlated with inflation, directly or indirectly Budget smoothing: Inflation is negatively correlated with fiscal deficits Diversification of the State’s liability portfolio Meeting Strong Demand And diversifying the investor base Providing a Public Good Expanding the hedging opportunities of private agents Providing policymakers with a market measure of expected inflation Is it Cost-Efficient? In an efficient market, inflation is fairly priced and nominal and real bonds are equivalent Additionally, the inflation-risk premium is eliminated Why Issue Inflation-Linked Bonds? Theoretical studies to support these assertions (see next page)
A Risk Management Framework for Government Debt Strategies: Results • with cost measure = average debt cost : classic cost-risk curve, i.e. issuance of ILBs decreases cost but increases volatility of debt interest cost • with cost measure = average fiscal balance : U-shaped cost-risk curve, i.e. there exists an optimum in inflation share of the debt portfolio. Depending on parameters, optimum varies between 10% and 20%.
Building the Real Curve • 1998: 10yr French Linker OATi 2009First ever euro-denominated linker • 1999: 30yr French Linker OATi 2029 • 2001: 10yr Euro Linker OAT€i 2012First euro-zone linker • 2002: 30yr Euro Linker OAT€i 2032 • 2003: 10yr French Linker OATi 2013 • 2004: 15yr Euro Linker OAT€i 2020 7yr French Linker OATi 201110yr Euro Linker OAT€i 2015 • 2005: 10yr French Linker OATi 2017 • 2006: 5yr Euro Linker BTAN€i 2010 • 2007: 30yr Euro Linker OAT€i 2040 • N.B. 2003: 22yr Greek linker, 5yr Italian linker 2004: 10yr, 30yr Italian linkers 2006: 10yr German linker
Key Figures for French Index-Linked Bonds Face value as of 23 March 2007: • French Inflation (OATi): €56.4bn • OATi 3% 2009: €13.8bn • OATi 1.6% 2011: €11.0bn • OATi 2.5% 2013: €13.9bn • OATi 1% 2017: €11.2bn • OATi 3.4% 2029: €6.4bn • Euro Area Inflation (OAT€i): €54.0bn • BTAN€i 1.25% 2010: €5.8bn • OAT€i 3% 2012: €14.5bn • OAT€i 1.6% 2015: €10.0bn • OAT€i 2.25% 2020: €11.0bn • OAT€i 3.15% 2032: €8.7bn • OAT€I 1.80% 2040: €4.0bn Total (inflated) as of 28 February 2007: €114bn • 12.6% of Total Marketable Debt • 13.6% of Medium- and Long-Term Debt (OATs and BTANs)
AFT Commitments Regarding ILBs • Regularity: Monthly issuance since 2004 (excluding August and December) • Predictability: ILB auction on 3rd Thursday of the month, 11:50 am, Paris time • Relevance: AFT is committed to issuing at least 10% of its financing program in linkers and significantly more if justified by demand (17.5% in 2006) • Ensuring liquidity through primary issuance and through primary dealers’ market making • Building two real curves: French & European inflation, and ensuring their liquidity
A Sustained Demand … Volumes Bid and Served at OATi/€i Auctions €bn
… for bothOATis andOAT€is Volumes issued €m
Foreign Holdings of OATi and OAT€i Source: Banque de France
Turnover on ILBs: OATi & OAT€i Source AFT, based on monthly reporting by primary dealers Total Turnover (buy+sell) 2004 – 2005 2004 2005 Net buyer over 2004 - 2005 Net seller over 2004 – 2005
Strong Liquidity in Index-linked Government Bonds Market Turnover in French Government Inflation-Linked Bonds (in € bn per month) OATei-15 OATi-17 BTANei-10 OATi-11 OATei-20 OATi-13 OATei-32 OATei-12 OATi-29 Source: AFT
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Total 6% 4% 2% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 Comparable Turnover in TIPS and French ILBs Trading Turnover of French Government Inflation-Linked Bonds Weekly Trading Volume Relative to Outstanding Debt Source: NY Fed Source: AFT 2005: Monthly average trading volume relative to outstanding debt: Total debt: 37,3% Inflation-linked bonds: 49,03%
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Stockholm, Thursday, March 29, 2007 Paris, Gateway to Euro Capital Markets