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Statistics

Statistics. Spring 2007. Introduction. Dr. Robb T. Koether Office: Bagby 114 Office phone: 223-6207 Home phone: 392-8604 (before 11:00 p.m.) Office hours: 2:30-3:20 MTWR Other hours by appointment E-mail: rkoether@hsc.edu Web page: http://people.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk. The Course.

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Statistics

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  1. Statistics Spring 2007

  2. Introduction • Dr. Robb T. Koether • Office: Bagby 114 • Office phone: 223-6207 • Home phone: 392-8604 (before 11:00 p.m.) • Office hours: 2:30-3:20 MTWR • Other hours by appointment • E-mail: rkoether@hsc.edu • Web page: http://people.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk

  3. The Course • The class meets in Bagby 106 at 1:30 - 2:20 MTWF. • The text for the course is Interactive Statistics, 3rd ed., by Martha Aliaga and Brenda Gunderson. • The web page for this course is at http://people.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math121 • Course information is also available through Blackboard.

  4. Introduction • Syllabus • Lectures • Assignments • Page xi – Interactive Exercises • Page xvi – Graphing Calculator

  5. Grading • There will be • Weekly quizzes • Some Excel assignments • Three tests • A final exam

  6. Grading • In the final average, these will have the following weights:

  7. Homework • The homework is the most important part of this course. • Learning mathematics requires gaining knowledge and understanding, but more importantly doing mathematics is a skill. • You should not expect to acquire a skill by listening to a lecturer talk about it. It takes practice. • Do all of the homework every day.

  8. Homework • More importantly, do not put off doing the homework until the night before the quiz. • You will not be able to learn that much material in one night. • Most importantly of all, do not put off doing the homework until the day before a test. • By then it is too late to learn it.

  9. Homework • At the beginning of each class meeting, I will spend up to 10 minutes working one or two homework problems in detail from previous assignments. • You may request a problem that you would like to see worked. • Of course, outside of class, I will help you with as many problems as I can.

  10. Quizzes • Each Tuesday, after going over homework problems, there will be a 10-minute quiz. • The quiz will contain 1 to 3 questions taken from the previous week's homework assignments. • The problems will be copied verbatim from the book.

  11. Excel Assignments • From time to time, as appropriate, I will assign small projects that will be worked using Microsoft Excel. • You will be allowed and encouraged to work in pairs on these assignments. • These will be graded with the same weight as the quizzes.

  12. Tests • The test schedule is as follows:

  13. The Final Exam • The final exam will be cumulative. • It will be given in this classroom at the time stated in the exam schedule. • Everyone must take it. • It will not be rescheduled. • Do not schedule a flight home before the exam! You will lose your ticket.

  14. Attendance • Attendance will be checked at the beginning of each class. • Two late arrivals will be counted as one absence. • The only valid excuses for missing class are • An illness which includes a visit to the Health Center or a doctor • An approved college activity • A true emergency • Any absence excused by the Dean of Students

  15. Attendance • Sending me an e-mail or leaving me a voice message does not excuse you from class.

  16. Attendance • When assigning final grades, attendance will be taken into account.

  17. Calculators • A calculator will be necessary for this course. • I strongly recommend the TI-83 or the TI-84.

  18. The Honor Code • Quizzes, tests, and the final exam are pledged. • On Excel assignments you may work with a partner.

  19. Classroom Etiquette • During a lecture, you are free to ask questions. • It is polite to raise your hand first and wait to be called on. • You should not talk to other students while I am talking. • While working assigned problems in class, you are free to talk to other students provided you are talking about the assigned problems.

  20. Classroom Etiquette • Do not make leave the room during the class. • If necessary, use the bathroom before coming to class. • If you are thirsty, get a drink before class. • Do not sleep in class. • Do not work on assignments from other classes during class. • Do not read the newspaper during class.

  21. The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory. • Collect some data. • Summarize the results. • Make a decision.

  22. The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data. • Summarize the results. • Make a decision.

  23. The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results. • Make a decision.

  24. The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. • Make a decision.

  25. The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. • Make a decision – Chapters 9 – 14.

  26. The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. • Make a decision – Chapters 9 – 14. • Theoretical underpinnings – Chapters 6 – 8.

  27. Formulate a Theory • We are wondering whether a particular die is fair. • If it is fair, then the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 should come up equally often. • In particular, if we rolled the die 600 times, we expect to get each number 100 times.

  28. Formulate a Theory • Or do we?

  29. Formulate a Theory • The theory that the die is fair will be tested by posing it as a question with two competing answers. • Question: Does the distribution of observed rolls match what we would expect to see if the die were fair?

  30. Formulate a Theory • The possible answers (yes and no) are stated more precisely as two competing hypotheses: • “Null hypothesis” The die is fair. • Any deviations from the expected observation are due entirely to chance. • “Research hypothesis” The die is not fair. • Any deviations from the expected observations are due to the bias in the die.

  31. Collect Some Data • So we roll the die 600 times and get the following results.

  32. Two Possible Explanations • There is a discrepancy. • Can it be explained by chance?

  33. Summarize the Results • We use the TI-83 or TI-84, and compute a special quantity: 2 = 4.62.

  34. Summarize the Results • Use the TI-83 or TI-84, and compute a special quantity: 2 = 4.62. • If the die really is fair, then theory says that we expect this calculation to yield the value 5, plus or minus a bit.

  35. Make a Decision • Theory says that if the die is fair, then this value should be less than the critical value of 11.070. • Since 2 is less than the critical value, we conclude that the “null hypothesis” is correct: The die is fair.

  36. An Important Question • Does this procedure prove that the die is fair?

  37. An Important Question • Does this procedure prove that the die is fair? • We may that it “proves” it statistically, but it does not prove it logically.

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