Future Waves : Trends Impacting Student Populations for Next 10 Years

1. ADAPE Australasia National Conference Charting New Waters 3 October 2004 Workshop 2  A/B. 4  Future Waves :Trends Impacting Student Populations for Next 10 Years Speaker Annimac www.annimac.com.au

4. Reminder from this morning Rate of Change • every 15 seconds = new web site • every 15 minutes = new technology • every 15 days = new product / service Amount of change in one day, Grandmother had in one year. Younger we are - faster our world moves.

5. Australia’s Age Distribution,1866-2042 65+ 60-64 55-59 45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Ruthven,Ibis 2003

6. Slightly Increasing Time for Education 120 ? years 74 years 46% Leisure Time 44% 50 years 43% 32% 38 years 29% Education 27% 23% Sleep Unpaid Work Travel to Work Paid Work Year born Ruthven,Ibis 2003

7. Australia’s Population 1866 - 2051 Source: ABS

8. Population Distribution 2001 – 2021 Australia Source: ABS

10. Population Projections to 2051 AustraliaCapital Cities Total 1999 12.11 million 17.20 million 2051 19.0 25.41ABS 2002

11. Student Age Numbers Australia 2001 – 2021

13. Changing Nature of Change 20th Century : trackable demographics • statistics useful predictors of demographic trends • quantitative info useful for future planning • linear projections reliable • stats accurately gathered 21st Century: fast shifting demographics • statistics useful historical information • linear projections often misleading • useful predictors increasingly qualitative • intuitive reasoning necessary

15. Shifting Student Trends

18. Young Understand Technology Drives Change They know that in 2020 70% of job types do not exist now because 80% of technology is not invented yet. Does your educational institution ?

19. Generations Baby Boomers b 1945 – 60 age 45 - 60 fewer females than males Generation X 1960 – 75 30 - 45 largest number in population DotComs 1975 – 90 15 – 30 first wired gen Ferals 1990 – 05 0 - 15 smallest number - ½ of GenX

21. Married or divorced Empty nesters Retired or p-t work Identity from job Material status Downsizing their lives Set relationships Sense of community Travellers, homebodies Medium term planners Seek new IF safe experiences Security conscious Health conscious Defer to authority Love & hate change Trends BABY BOOMERS 45 - 60

22. Single Childless I.d. ephemeral, changing Global i.d., no commitment Short term planners Risk takers, fast decisions Mobile, nfa, renters Varied lifestyles, wired Multi careers, SOHO Net Dating Materialism assumed Environmental values Personal journey Defer to heroes Expect, accept change Trends GEN X ERS 30 - 45

24. Parental home Global I.d. No careers, own path I.d. from activity Group socialising Temporary pairing Wired Net relationships Immediacy Multi channeled, multi actions Non consumers Planetary group mission Temporary deference Need & welcome change Trends DOTCOMS 15 - 30

26. Parental home No patterns Unlimited channels Future jobs unimportant Global limitless relationships Momentary relationships Global i.d. & commitment Very immediate & long term view I.d. from self values Non consumers, global values Wired into global village Planetary mission, self & group No deference, respect per need Live change, ignore all barriers Trends FERALS 0 - 15

28. SUMMARYFuture Waves of Students • Increasing rate of change • Technology drives all change • Younger exponentially faster • Huge generational differences • As global world shrinks : • gain more knowledge • more options • greater passion • responsibility with dignity.

30. Thank you www.annimac.com.au