Basic Track IV

1. Basic Track IV Case Study Handouts/Overheads 2002 CLRS September 2002 Arlington, Virginia

10. Basic Track IV Case Study Set II Handouts/Overheads 2002 CLRS September 2002 Arlington, Virginia

16. Questions or Discussion Based on the Variant Case • In this example, the Reported Loss Development and the Reported Counts and Averages method produce higher ultimate loss estimates than the Paid Loss Development Method. What would you do in this situation: • pick the average of the three as a compromise • pick the highest answer to be more conservative • pick the lower answer to appear more profitable • investigate potential reasons for the difference in estimates • change the assumptions so that the three methods produce equal results • Do the historical reported loss and paid loss development patterns look consistent in this instance, or have the patterns changed? • What changes did you notice? What are some possible explanations for them? • How would you go about investigating the changes? Who would you talk to, and what additional data would you look at? • How could changes in the following disciplines impact the data: • Underwriting • Claims • Marketing • Accounting • Data Processing

17. Basic Track IV Case Study Set III Handouts/Overheads 2002 CLRS September 2002 Arlington, Virginia

25. Questions or Discussion based on the Diagnostics • What does the additional diagnostic data tell you about the changes in the loss development patterns? • After examining this additional data, how would you change the original methods and assumptions shown?

26. Basic Track IV Case Study Appendix Handouts/Overheads 2002 CLRS September 2002 Arlington, Virginia

31. Basic Track IV Case Study Answer Key Handouts/Overheads 2002 CLRS September 2002 Arlington, Virginia

32. Answer Key