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RL 7 CIRCE PROJECT

RL 7 CIRCE PROJECT. Impact of Global Change on Ecosystems and the services they provide. WP7.2 - the livestock sector - March 18, 2009.

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RL 7 CIRCE PROJECT

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  1. RL 7 CIRCE PROJECT Impact of Global Change on Ecosystems and the services they provide WP7.2 - the livestock sector - March 18, 2009

  2. During the second year of the Project a series of activities to evaluate the impact of climate on some health and welfare-related parameters in farm animals has been carried out. ACTIVITIES/DELIVERABLES COMPLETED D7.2.5 (Mo14): Description of the Mediterranean basin in terms of THI. 31 May 2008 D7.2.6 (Mo18): Description of the impact of climate and/or weather on mortality and milk yield in dairy cows. 30 September 2008

  3. D7.2.5 (Mo14): Description of the Mediterranean basin in terms of THI. Weather and climate influence farm animals production, indeed the ability to predict the effects of extreme climate variables on livestock is important in terms of health, welfare and performances. Temperature provides a measure of the sensible heat content, but there are limitations considering air temperature alone as a measure of the thermal environment because, for example, high humidity reduces the potential for evaporative heat loss. The objective of the study was to describe the Mediterranean basin in term of THI (Temperature Humidity Index). This index combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used as indicator of thermal stress in livestock under environmental warmth. An index combining temperature and humidity is THI (Temperature Humidity Index). It has been widely used as indicator of thermal stress in livestock. The THI may be calculated throughout the following formula (Kelly and Bond (1971)): THI = (1.8T + 32) - (0.55 – 0.55 * H/100) * [(1.8T + 32) - 58]

  4. D7.2.5 (Mo14) According to this index four livestock welfare categories may be identified for environmental management decision: - THI ≤ 74 not cause safety problem for healthy animal; - THI 75-78 alert conditions, producer can expect some decrease in the rate of weight gain; - THI 79-83 danger condition, animals show noticeable decreases in weight; - THI ≥ 84 emergency conditions. Without management intervention, animal mortality can occur, especially when such conditions are prolonged. ALERT DANGER EMERGENCY

  5. D7.2.5 (Mo14) North Coast: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain. South Coast: Algeria, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Morocco, Tunisia. East Coast: Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey. The basin of the Mediterranean Area we refer to is thus delimited by the 10° West and 40° East meridians, 28° and 45° North parallels. The basin is located in a transitional geographical zone bounded by the Euro-Asian region and the North African desert, and it is directly under the effect of the Atlantic Ocean. This area is defined then by 2 climates: dry and mild mid-latitudine.

  6. D7.2.5 (Mo14) • Climate data were acquired by NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project at the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division (www.cdc.noaa.gov)and consisted of: • - Surface Variables: Air Temperature and Relative humidity • - Temporal coverage: 1/1/1948 close to present (updated near beginning of month); • - Levels: Surface; • Spatial coverage: 2.5° latitude x 2.5° longitude (the global grid with 144x73 points 90°N-90°S, 0°E-357.5°E). • Software:map of isolines were generated by the geographical software GrADS (Grid Analysis and Display System). • The Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) is an interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data. • - GraDS is freely distributed over the Internet at www.iges.org / grads • - GrADS uses a 4-Dimensional data environment: longitude, latitude, vertical level, and time. • - Operations are executed interactively by entering FORTRAN-like expressions at the command line.

  7. D7.2.5 (Mo14) THI average (climate monthly means data) All climate monthly means data were aggregated on the basis of three periods of reference: 1951-1980, 1961-1990 and 1971-2000. The second reference period (1961-1990) is known as CLINO (Climate Normal). Therefore, anomalies between the three periods of reference were evaluated.

  8. D7.2.5 (Mo14) THI anomaly (climate monthly means data)

  9. D7.2.5 (Mo14) Isolines of the mean annual THI showed the presence of THI values which may cause thermal stress in livestock and a strong north to south gradient across the region that reflects the effect of latitude. Furthermore, a general warming was observed with progress of time. These results indicate that risk of thermal stress for livestock is greater in the countries of the south coast of the basin and that the expected global warming will increase thermal discomfort of livestock in the region.

  10. D7.2.6 (Mo18): Description of the impact of climate and/or weather on mortality and milk yield in dairy cows. The general objective of this study was to describe the relationships between THI (Temperature Humidity Index), health and productive parameters in dairy cows. The specific aim was the description of the study area (Italy) in terms of THI, and the analysis of the relationship between THI, mortality and milk yield in dairy cows. An environment is generally considered stressful for cattle when the THI exceeds 72.

  11. D7.2.6(Mo18) Division and weather data of air temperature and humidity obtained from 126 selected meteorological stations located in some Italian regions. Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) database, which provides data of daily mortality of cows older than 24 months. Furthermore, data from meteorological stations permitted to describe the relationships between THI and number of deaths. As described below, this activity requested the realization of a specific database named THI-De (THI-Deaths).

  12. D7.2.6(Mo18) The regional variability of the THI in the Italian regions was analysed using isolines maps of THI for the summer months: June, July, August and September (JJAS). Many studies have reported the influence of heat stress on milk yield during summer months and results of the analysis permit to estimate that within the study area the more dramatic effects should be observed in the southern area and in the months of July and August where the decline of milk yield might range between 1.5 and 2 l/day. The analysis of the anomalies permits to suggest that during the year 2003, decline of milk yield due to heat stress may have been higher of approximately 30%.

  13. D7.2.6(Mo18) The regional variability of the THI in the Italian regions was analysed using isolines maps of THI for the summer months: June, July, August and September (JJAS). Many studies have reported the influence of heat stress on milk yield during summer months and results of the analysis permit to estimate that within the study area the more dramatic effects should be observed in the southern area and in the months of July and August where the decline of milk yield might range between 1.5 and 2 l/day. The analysis of the anomalies permits to suggest that during the year 2003, decline of milk yield due to heat stress may have been higher of approximately 30%.

  14. D7.2.6(Mo18) In the regions of Emilia Romagna and Lombardia (geographic area comprised between 44°- 46°.15’ latitude north and 8°.30’- 12°.30’ longitude east, known as the area of the Po Valley) , when examining data of summer mortality (JJAS) of each single year respect to the expected mortality throughout the 12 months, 2003 was the year in which the anomaly was greater. Conversely, for the year 2005 the anomaly was smaller.

  15. D7.2.6(Mo18) Analysis of distribution of mortality events in the reference period and their relationship with THI permit to point out an increase of mortality in summer months with THI values above 70. Therefore we observed that the relationship between THI values and rate of deaths can be satisfactorily expressed by the polynomial regression of third degree with a R2 value of 0,838.

  16. ACTIVITIES/DELIVERABLES IN PROGRESS D7.2...(Mo24): Description of climate evolution scenarios in terms of THI in the Mediterranean basin. 31 March 2009 D7.2...(Mo30): Description of the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean Area on health and productivity of dairy cows. evolution scenarios in terms of THI in the Mediterranean basin. 30 September 2009

  17. In the next deadline objective of the study will be to describe the climate evolution scenarios in the Mediterranean basin in term of THI in agreement with the IPCC scenarios: B1, A1B and B2 (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic respectively). The three SRES illustrative scenarios and the stabilisation scenarios (parts per million CO2) Dataset of simulation (air temperature and relativity humidity) is available from FUBEMA (Freie Universitaet Berlin) and EGMAM (=ECHO-G with Middle Atmosphere fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model) This dataset represents montly mean value of the selected variable for ENSEMBLES (spatial coverage: 2.5° latitude x 2.5° longitude; temporal coverage: 01/12/1999 – 30/12/2099 with model time 360 days for year). The data are in netCDF format. Data source from the World Data Center for Climate (CERA) at http://cera-www.dkrz.de/CERA/index.html.

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