The Scientific Method

1. The Scientific Method 2/18/1996 …lots and lots and lots of math.

2. Goal • What is the scientific method? • What does the scientific method assume? • Does the scientific method work? • What is not a scientific argument. • Does astrology follow the scientific method?

3. model test The Scientific Method • Problem: The problem is stated as a question, and is based on your observations. • Develop a hypothesis (an educated guess) which makes a prediction. • A hypothesis must include both the independent and the dependant variable. • Test the prediction. • Experimental design • Control group: change nothing… let everything act as it normally would. • Experimental group: The variable that you can change or manipulate. The variable which may affect the outcome. • Procedures • Detailed step-by-step that makes no assumptions about the reader knowing procedures Diagrams of lab set-up can be very helpful. • Observe the Data. • Your data table should be: • Organized so that it is easily understood. • Correctly labeled with titles and units. • Include multiple trials. • Graphing checklist: • Line graph – shows a change over time. • Bar graph – compares groups to each other. • Dependant variable is on the vertical axis. • Independent variable is on the horizontal axis. • Axis are labeled with units. • Title clearly explains the graph (IV vs. DV) • Analysis: The analysis section should be in paragraph form and should include the following: • Detailed interpretation of your results • Why you think you got these results. Apply scientific concepts. • How you would do your experiment differently if you were to do it again. • What further experiments would build upon this one. • Conclusion: The conclusion states whether or not your hypothesis was correct or incorrect and give a supporting statement.

4. Medical Science

5. Everyday Science

6. Everyday Science

7. Food Science • Throwing something together  Hypothesis • Your grandmother’s time-tested recipe  Scientific Theory.

8. Repeatability • A successful theory is repeatable. • By you. • By anyone. • Examples: • Cold Fusion (1989) • Ecstasy (Science, 2003)

9. Requirements • Objective reality • We all see the same world. • Constant Laws of Nature • What happens here, happens there. • What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow. • The Cosmos is knowable.

10. Does it work? • Scientific Method is a tool. • Does this tool work? • Life expectancy • Mortality rates • Are there better tools?

11. Theories • So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. • All hypotheses make predictions. • All theories make predictions. • All theories can be tested. • Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

12. Non-scientific Theories • Make no predictions • Un-testable • Can’t be falsified

13. Non-scientific Theories • Car won’t work?  Aliens drained the battery. • Spaghetti is bland?  You were meant to eat bland food. • Car won’t work?  Gods must be angry. • Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

14. Viking Orbiter (1976) Mars Global Surveyor (1998) Non-scientific Theories • The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design). • Face on Mars.

15. Falsification • A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it.

16. Astrology Tests • What test would falsify astrology?