Update: S ocioeconomic narrative discovery for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report

1. Update: Socioeconomic narrative discovery for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Vanessa Schweizer, ASP Postdoctoral Fellow ASP Research Review, NCAR November 10, 2011

2. Overview of the new scenario framework

3. Representative concentration pathways What types of worlds could these be? Is adaptation effective? Is global wealth distributed more equitably? How is land used? Scenario uncertainty dominates Inman, 2011

4. Concept map for AR5 parallel process Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Socioeconomic challenges to mitigation Socioeconomic challenges to adaptation O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011

5. Qualitative characterization of narrative space Scenarioelements affecting challenges to mitigation might affect challenges to adaptation and vice versa Core Writing Team, 2011

6. A systematic approach to SSP definition

7. A systematic proposal I. Operationalize concepts in axes for each SSP; II. Transparently evaluate internally consistent combos of SSP elements Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis Determinants for SSP axes Element pathways Inconsistency scores SSP elements Population Low/Med/High Baseline emissions Quant ranges Income Mitigation capacity C intensity Adaptive capacity Consistent combinations of states in SSP space Extreme poverty Sensitivity Mapping of pathways to SSP axes Population(H), Income(M), C intensity(H), Equity(L)? Population(M), Income(M), C intensity(M), Equity(M)? Population(L), Income(H), C intensity(L), Equity(M)?

8. How we approached the steps I. Operationalize concepts in axes for each SSP; II. Transparently evaluate internally consistent combos of SSP elements Expert elicitations on pathway interrelationships (n = 13) Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis Inconsistency scores Determinants for SSP axes Element pathways SSP elements Expert Internet survey on challenges to mitigation, adaptation (n = 27) Mathematical software package Projections, scenario review Low/Med/High Consistent combinations of states in SSP space Indexing of pathways to SSP axes (n=1000) Ordinal scaling of L/M/H pathways for each element Identification of unique qualities of SSP domains

9. I. Operationalizing concepts in axes for each SSP

10. Elements: Challenges to mitigation, adaptation • Internet survey sent to participants of Berlin IPCCworkshop on new socioeconomic scenarios, Koreascenario matrix architecturemeeting, select WGIIlead authors for the AR5 (early responders, n = 27) • Top elements for challenges to mitigation • Top elements for challenges to adaptation

11. Element pathways: Low, Medium, High

12. II. Transparent evaluation of internally consistent combinations of SSP elements

13. What does it mean for combinations of SSP elements to be internally consistent? With CIB analysis, internally consistent combinations “evoke a self-consistent network of influences”; can be considered self-reinforcing (Weimer-Jehle 2006, p. 342) Inconsistent combinations instead evoke corrections Education High Low X High Income per capita X Population Low

14. Pairwise judgments underpin consistency Income Evaluation according to 7-point Likert scale -3 3 Strongly Strongly discourage encourage pathway pathway

15. Flavor of cross-impact balances

16. Frequency distribution for inconsistency scores Number of different combinations Cumulative # combinations > 1.5 million Inconsistency score (Best) (Worst)

17. SSP element pathways, axes Y-axis: Challenges to mitigation • Population (Pop) • Energy intensity (EI) • Carbon intensity (CI) • Agricultural productivity (AgP) • Energy-related technological change (Tech) HIGH challenges Pop(H), EI(H), CI(H), AgP(L), Tech(L) Challenges to mitigation MEDIUM challenges All pathways Medium LOW challenges Pop(L), EI(L), CI(L), AgP(H), Tech(H)

18. SSP element pathways, axes X-axis: Challenges to adaptation • Extreme poverty (XPov) • Water scarcity (-H2O) • Average income (GDP) • Education (Ed) • Governance (Gov) • Innovation capacity (Innov) • Agricultural productivity (AgP) LOW challenges MEDIUM challenges HIGH challenges XPov(L) -H2O(L) GDP(H) Ed(H) Gov(H) Innov(H) AgP(H) All pathways Medium XPov(H) -H2O(H) GDP(L) Ed(L) Gov(L) Innov(L) AgP(L) Challenges to adaptation

19. Mapping 1000 consistent members Equal weighting SSP 1: 483 SSP 2: 187 SSP 3: 193 SSP 4: 084 SSP 5: 053 Challenges to mitigation 3-tiered weighting SSP 1: 358 SSP 2: 162 SSP 3: 241 SSP 4: 030 SSP 5: 209 Challenges to adaptation

20. Interpreting domain characteristics

21. Summary of domain characteristics SSP2: Most variety in outcomes for challenges to adaptation -- Opposing outcomes “cancel” in SSP mapping; heterogeneity averages to medium challenges -- At localized scales, challenges could actually be high or low SSP4: Divergence in mitigation and adaptation challenges -- 80% have low pathways for aggregate quality of governance; keeps adaptation challenges high -- Difficult to characterize “mixed world” further without separate regions in basic SSPs SSP5: Most members resemble SSP2, but clearly have lower challenges to adaptation -- 100% of members have high pathways for aggregate quality of governance

22. Conclusions for SSP domains • Preliminary results suggest an essential element for challenges to adaptation is quality of governance • Future work • Similar analysis of narrative elements specifically for lower income economies • More judgments for element interactions to be obtained via Internet survey • Further investigation of internally consistent combinations that differ from SSP archetypes Your comments are appreciated! vanessa@ucar.edu

23. References Core Writing Team  (2011)  A  framework  for  a  new  generation  of  socioeconomic   scenarios  for  climate  change impact,  adaptation,  vulnerability  and  mitigation   research, August.  Available  at  http://www.isp.ucar.edu/socio‐economic-pathways. Inman, M. (2011) Opening the Future. Nature Climate Change, 1, 7-9. O’Neill, B.C. and Schweizer, V. (2011) Mapping the Road Ahead. Nature Climate Change, 1, 352-353. UCAR (2011) Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research. http://www.isp.ucar.edu/socio-economic-pathways. Weimer-Jehle, W. (2006) Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73, 334-361.

24. BACKUP

25. Detailed concept map for AR5 parallel process Emissions Policies affecting mitigation RCPs SSPs Concen-trations Forcing Non-climatic drivers Mitigative capacity Climate change Climate variability Non-climatic factors Policies affecting adaptation Exposure to climatic stimuli Sensitivity to climatic stimuli Adaptive capacity Integrated Assessment Modeling Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability Climate Modeling Residual impacts of climate change Füssel & Klein, 2006 adapted by O’Neill & Schweizer

26. Scenario matrix architecture enables new research questions LEFT: Costs, benefits of mitigation for certain set of socioeconomic conditions RIGHT: Anticipation of mitigation, adaptation, unavoidable climate impacts for different socioeconomic futures at some level of climate forcing

27. Issues with narratives SSP X doesn’t seem likely – can we skip that one? I don’t like any of these SSPs – can we go back to the drawing board? I like SSP Y – let’s focus on THAT one!

29. Combinations of element pathways Ideally there would be a way to determine if any particular combination of narrative element pathways is internally consistent. • Method suited for this purpose: Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis (Weimer-Jehle 2006) • CIB analysis requires judgments of how pathways for elements directly influence each other • Questionnaires developed, workshops held to elicit these judgments (n = 13)