Jean Louis RALLU INED, Paris

1. Population and Development in the MDG Context : The Impact of Population Trends and Structures on MDG Progress Jean Louis RALLU INED, Paris Second Edition of theInterdisciplinary Course on the UN Millennium Development Goals Rome,October 2, 2009

2. Content Population and Development, the Demographic Window • Population and Development and international organizations (the old and new paradigms) • The demographic window of opportunity The Millennium development Goals (MDG) The relationship between population and MDGs • Population and development, and MDGs • Relationship between MDG indicators • Population trends/structures and MDG indicators • Migration and MDGs

3. I. - Population and Development, the Demographic Window

4. Population and Development and international organizations

5. The old and the new paradigms • The link between population trends and development. The former population growth vs development debate : ‘which is the cause and which is the consequence’ – UN International Conference on Population, and Population and Development, before Cairo 1994. • The new paradigm : interelated economic, social and human rights issues in an integrated approach to population and development, ICPD Cairo 1994 ; - ICPD PoA (Programme of Action) 1994 - MDGs 2000, adopted by the UN and 200 countries

6. P&D and the Demographic Window of Opportunity • The demographic window theory is based on analysis of emergent countries in East and South-East Asia showing that population structure is more important than population growth for development. Several names: • demographic window of opportunity (preferable) • demographic window • demographic dividend

7. The Demographic window of opportunity

8. The demographic window of opportunity • With declining fertility, population growth declines. • However, growth remains positive due to ‘population momentum’. • BUT, birth cohorts size stabilizes and starts to decline (while population is still growing). • A youth bulge appears. • Thus, dependency ratios fall progressively, reaching below 50 (2 adults for one dependent (children < 15 and elderly > 65).

9. Thailand 1960-2005

10. Thailand demographic window

11. We see clearly: - the stabilizing and shrinking basis of the age-pyramid from 1980 - The youth bulge appearing in 1990 - The youth bulge moving upwards - The beginning of aging THEN…, - Aging

12. Thailand 2030-2050

13. The two phases of the demographic window • Recent works (Mason 2006, 2007) shows there are two phases in the demographic window • The youth bulge : increased ratio of workers to population, increased qualification/productivity of work force (young people are usually more educated) • When the youth bulge reaches late adult ages, children of ‘youth bulgers’ have left the family, resulting in increased savings that are favorable to investments.

14. The demographic window of opportunity • The demographic window can last 2 or 3 decades. • There is no fixed threshold in dependency rates to define the demographix window • However, it’s impact is stronger when dependency ratio is below 55 or 50. • Currently China, Thailand have dependency ratios around 42 (Singapore : 37).

15. Demographic window in four S-E Asian countries, 1970-2050

16. Dependency ratios in Africa and Asia

17. The demographic window in Africa and Asia • Some countries in East Asia and SE Asia are right in the middle of the demographic window with dependency ratios in the 40 to 45 range • Other countries in SE Asia are heading towards the low point in dependency ratio (around 2020), followed by South and Central Asia (from 2035) • Northern Africa is close to South Central Asia – minimum dependency ratio is projected to remain higher (around 45) than in East Asia • Western and Eastern Africa would not show dependency ratios below 50 before 2050 in medium scenario - Southern Africa has lower fertility and dependency ratios, but the latter is also influenced by the impact of AIDS

18. Dependency ratios in a few African countries

19. Fertility in Africa and Asia(TFR observed and projected - medium scenario)

20. Dependency ratios (medium and low fertiltiy scenarios)

21. The link between fertility and dependency/demographic window • The ranking of regions and sub-regions is very close for fertility and dependency ratios – as expected, because the basis of the age-pyramid is a direct result of fertility levels and children under 15 are the major contributor to dependency before aging takes place • Earlier and stronger fertility declines in low scenario are associated with earlier demographic window and lower dependency ratios: below 50 from 2045 in Western and Eastern Africa. - Reducing aging after the demographic window can be done by stabilizing fertity at the replacement level (if TFR does not decline under 2.1)

22. Economic aspects

23. Macro economic effects of the Demographic Window • States have to spend less for services in child/maternal health and education, due to stable and then declinning children cohorts. • They can invest to improve quality of services, train nurses/teachers, shift spendings from 1ary to 2ary and 3ary education,… - They can develop infrastructures that will attract foreign as well as domestic private investors

24. Micro economic effects of the Demographic Window - Households spend less on primary needs (food+clothing for a large number of children). • They can spend in durable goods, services, health, higher education of smaller number of children… • Mothers can work outside. - This help develop new sectors of economy. - Later, at higher adult ages, they can save more.

25. Demographic window of opportunity • This works, ON CONDITION young adults of the youth bulge can be employed, • which is dependent on legal and economic environment: investment policies, freedom of trade, quality of infrastructures, qualification of work force, social and political stability, governance, human rights, gender equality.

26. II. - The Millenium Development Goals

27. The MDGs • End Poverty and Hunger • Universal Education • Gender Equality • Child Health • Maternal Health • Combat HIV/AIDS • Environmental Sustainability • Global Partnership

28. The MDG galaxy • 8 goals: 20 targets and 60+ indicators • They are designed to address basic human needs and rights as regards nutrition, access to paid work, education, health, environment, partnership for development,... • They are based on human rights • Although there is no goal on governance, governance is addressed consistently by various UN agencies in the 5th UN Programme 2008-2011

29. Types of indicators A useful approach is to separate indicators by types • services availability indicators • Net enrolment ratio in primary education, • Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel, • Antenatal care coverage (at least 1 visit and 4 visits), • Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source … • Outcomes indicators • Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day … • Employment-to-population ratio, • Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men, • Maternal mortality ratio, - Under-five mortality rate,… NB Some indicators are not so clearly service or outcome indicators (contraceptive prevalence rate), or are not directly population related (Proportion of species threatened with extinction, debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services)…

30. Poverty is a corner stone of MDGs • Analysis of disaggregated MDG indicators has shown that the lowest quintile has the poorest records in access to services and outcomes (lowest skill attended deliveries, highest infant and maternal mortality, lowest enrolment, completed primary education and literacy…) • Reducing poverty would result in improving most of MDG indicators, and… • thus, countries would progress toward MDG attainment • But it’s not only about economy: economic growth does not always reduce poverty. • There is a need of pro-poor policies

31. Relationship between poverty and Reproductive Health MDGs indicators (1)

32. Relationship between poverty and Reproductive Health MDGs indicators (2)

33. Population is also at the basis of most MDGs • Population is present nearly everywhere in the MDG process through poverty/hunger, health, education, gender, environment… indicators, and rights based approach, • And so, many indicators are social and human development indicators and MDGs are a extensive approach to social, economic and human development (well beyond HDI – Human Development Index that consists of only 3 indicators) • And technically – population is the basis for MDG costing and budgeting (UNDP)

34. III. - The relationship between Population Trends/structures and MDGs

35. The positive effect of the demographic window on service indicators • Services in reproductive health, education are linked with the number of births • As the demographic window reduces the number of births, it is easier to increase service coverage • Countries with high growth of birth cohorts face three challenges: - Increase services to cope with increasing cohort size • Increase services to increase coverage • Improve quality of services

36. The link between services and outcome indicators

37. Correlations coefficients between MDGs indicators (IMR and MMR) and various services indicators (Pacific Island countries)

38. Relations between MDGs indicators • IMR and MMR are closely correlated, when IMR is high, MMR is also high. • Both are strongly negatively correlated with access to services: skilled birth attendants and immunization, as well as improved water and sanitation: when services are low, IMR and MMR are high. • When progress in services is slow, IMR and MMR are high. • They are also strongly correlated with literacy/employment: when women education or participation in formal sector are low, IMR and MMR are high.

39. The link between population and MDG indicators

40. Relation between MDG attainment and population and development(Pacific Island countries) ** significant at p<0.05; * significant at p<0.10 (a) Proportion of population below national poverty line

41. Correlation coefficients of selected socio-economic indicators with U5MR, MMR, and progress to goals of reducing themcountries in the ESCAP region

42. The link between DW and MDG attainment • In SE Asia, dependency ratio is correlated with (among others) : • Infant mortality rate (R2=0,575) • Maternal mortality ratio (R2=0,751), • Births attended by skilled health personal (R2=0,871), • Proportion of children immunized against measles (R2=0,691) • Net enrolment rate in primary education (R2=0,919) • Contraceptive prevalence rate (R2=0,833)

43. Infant mortality and dependency ratio (Northern and Western Africa)

44. Net enrolment in 1ary education and dependency ratio (Northern and Western Africa)

45. Migration and development, and MDG attainment

46. Impact of migration on the demographic window • Migration takes away young adults and reduces the number of births - positive effect, • Migration increases dependency ratio - negative effect, • Brain drain takes away the most qualified (teachers, nurses, doctors…) - negative effect.

47. Migration, Development and MDGs • Migration increases dependency and reduces working ages, but workers are abroad sending remittances. • The demographic window (‘demographic bonus’) seems not to be an issue for mass migration countries. • But do remittances reach such level and stability to make a sustainable economic system? Is the MIRAB (MIgration, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy)sustainable? • Still, the question is whether economic growth can be based on low qualified migration. Asian (Philippines, Pakistan…) and Polynesian emigration countries have low economic growth

48. Health and education indicators • Quality is essential to achieve low levels of infant (IMR) and maternal (MMR) mortality, and transitions from class 1 to 6 and 1ary to 2ary education. • Brain drain affects sustainability and quality of services – staff shortages, low qualified staff. • This results in stagnating IMR and MMR - with IMR levels between 12 per 1,000 and 20 per 1,000 in Polynesia, Palau and Fiji, while MDG target for these countries is 10 per 1,000 or below. • In education, 1ary completion is low and children end 1ary after several repetitions and are 2 or more years late when entering 2ary; many drop out after class 6 or form 3.

49. The use of remittances and MDGs • Remittances can help reduce poverty • They are mostly used for basic needs (food, clothing, housing,…) • But they are also used for education, health, • They can be used for investment in smaller or larger businesses, creating jobs • However, at the macro level, they may also increase inflation, cost of living and raise poverty lines

50. The various uses of remittances and MDGs • The many uses of remittances can improve various MDG indicators of migration countries. - personal consumption of durable goods or in-kinds remittances, like telephones, cell phones, computers and internet connection, - Pacific countries with the largest expatriate communities are also those with the highest use of internet. - payment of education/health of children left behind or of relatives - payment of health expenditures for parents - use of remittances for collective purposes: infrastructures (wells, improved toilets, sewage, generator/solar panels), school books, medicine, disaster relief after hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes,… • Support to social life: church/cultural/sports/youth associations…, can have social impact and effects on gender issues. - Remittances used for investment or savings contribute to employment generation and economic growth.