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New York’s Energy Opportunities 2010

New York’s Energy Opportunities 2010. Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Congressman Scott Murphy’s Economic Action Summit March 15, 2010. Good News and Bad News . Historic low energy prices…today. Capital Region still pays more than it should Cap and Trade upside for NY.

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New York’s Energy Opportunities 2010

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  1. New York’s Energy Opportunities 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Congressman Scott Murphy’s Economic Action Summit March 15, 2010

  2. Good News and Bad News • Historic low energy prices…today. • Capital Region still pays more than it should • Cap and Trade upside for NY. • Energy renewables agenda. • Energy infrastructure agenda. • Consumers have the responsibility to choose. Energy Opportunities 2010

  3. Why are prices low? • Demand destruction: The Great Recession (Bad news) • Speculators out of market (Good news) • Natural gas supplies are up. Unconventional, shale gas. (Good news) Energy Opportunities 2010

  4. Wholesale Power Prices at Historic Low in 2009 (NYISO) Load Av.Electric Av.NatGas GWh $/MWh $/MMBtu 2000 428 $58.26 $5.52 2001 430 $51.22 $4.54 2002 435 $49.90 $3.85 2003 433 $62.58 $6.48 2004 438 $62.80 $6.80 2005 458 $93.83 $10.01 2006 444 $76.45 $7.36 2007 458 $80.29 $8.50 2008 452 $95.31 $10.13 2009 435 $48.63 $4.87 Energy Opportunities 2010

  5. Wholesale Electricity Price Trend 2000-2009 (Average, NYS) Energy Opportunities 2010

  6. Wholesale Natural Gas Price Trends 2000-2009 (Average, NYS) Energy Opportunities 2010

  7. Total Electric DemandNYS 2000-2009 Energy Opportunities 2010

  8. NYMEX Natural Gas Prices

  9. Natural gas storage trend, last 24 months (USEIA) Energy Opportunities 2010

  10. January 3, 2010, 1 p.m. Energy Opportunities 2010

  11. January 6, 2010, 9 a.m. Energy Opportunities 2010

  12. Capital Region Pricing Factors • Transmission congestion • Insufficient local generation • Stable, growing demand (Global Foundries) • Cost to region +/- $200,000,000 per year. Energy Opportunities 2010

  13. Grid upgrade plans (NYISO 2010) Firm: Spier Falls to Rotterdam Non-firm: Spier to Luther Forest Rotterdam to Luther Forest Mohican to Luther Forest North Troy to Luther Forest Irish Road to Luther Forest Just announced: Champlain-Hudson Express Energy Opportunities 2010

  14. Cap and Trade: Good News for New York ratepayers • Carbon tax will raise price of coal-fired generation. • Other states are more dependent on coal than New York. • Electric prices will normalize. Energy Opportunities 2010

  15. New York vs U.S. • New York State 15.27 cents/kwh • U.S. average 8.90 cents/kwh Energy Opportunities 2010

  16. Pennsylvania Electric generation fuel mix, Nov. 2009 Energy Opportunities 2010

  17. Ohio Electric generation fuel mix Nov. 2009 Energy Opportunities 2010

  18. NY State Electric generation by fuel source Nov. 2009 Energy Opportunities 2010

  19. Renewables by 2015 (NYS Energy Plan) Wind (1,280MW as of 2009): • On shore 7,993 MW • Off shore 534 MW Solar PV: 100 MW (14.6MW as of 2006) Total NYS peak electric demand 2008: +/- 38,720 MW (USEIA) Energy Opportunities 2010

  20. New York wind resources Energy Opportunities 2010

  21. Private Investment in renewables Energy price hedge • On-site, behind the meter, PPAs • Bi-lateral deals with developers Green marketing • Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) Energy Opportunities 2010

  22. …What’s next? NYS Energy Plan encourages • New capacity, both Generation and Transmission. • Fuel diversity, especially renewables. • Clear signals to consumers from energy markets to induce efficiency. Energy Opportunities 2010

  23. Other policy initiatives under way • Smart metering – Installations began 2008. • Net metering – Customer sited generation banking. • Article 10 - One-stop permitting expired 2002. Is renewed effort in store? • Federal ARRA funding, block grants Energy Opportunities 2010

  24. Consumer Choices and Responsibilities • Shop for energy supplies, price, rate, tax savings. Pay less. • Energy efficiency, SCR, NYSERDA programs. Use less. • Federal incentives, tax credits for efficiency and renewables Energy Opportunities 2010

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