Water Related Disasters: Prospects Under Climate Change Seleshi B. Awulachew

1. Water Related Disasters: Prospects Under Climate Change Seleshi B. Awulachew African Climate Policy Centre (UNECA-ACPC) 25 June 2012

2. Outline • Introduction • Water Related Disasters in Africa • Occurrences of Water Disasters – Drought, Flood, Storm • Prospects under Climate Change • Water disaster implications to key sectors • Copping Mechanisms and Measures • ClimDev Africa and ACPC

3. 1. Introduction • Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a society or community • Causes widespread human, material or environmental loss which exceeds the capacity of the affected society to cope without external intervention • A disaster therefore an effect to the society of a hazardous occurrence (UN/ISDR)

4. 1. Introduction: Disaster categories Hydro-meteorological: Droughts/famine, Floods, Wind storms, Avalanches, landslides, extreme temperatures, heat waves, hurricanes, forest fires, insect infestations and storm surges Geophysical disasters: Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunami etc. Water Disaster: Floods, Drought, Storm, Dam Break,… (essentially linked to hydro-meteorology) • Water disasters are aggravated due to climate change

5. 1. Introduction: Disaster Trends Number of people reported affected by natural disaster 1990-2010 (square rooted) 5

6. 1. Introduction: Disaster Damage Caused Average annual damages ($US Billion) caused by reported natural disaster summary 1990-2010. 6

7. 1. Introduction: Water and None Water Disasters The annual total and cumulative number of natural disaster events recorded globally between 1900 and 2006 At a global scale, water disasters are increasing under climate change The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas. 7

8. 1. Introduction: Manifestation of Water Disasters • Climate variability & occurrence of El Nino/La Nina in Africa • Climate change and sea level rise in Africa • Intense rainfall and land slide in Africa • Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure • Increase monsoon precipitation variability • Intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niño events in many different regions • Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought and flood-prone regions • Decreased hydro-power potential in drought-prone regions • The occurrence of water and vector-borne diseases epidemics: cholera, malaria, leptospirosis and typhus.

9. 2. Water Related Disasters in Africa • Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity. • Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and ecosystem degradation. • Water Disaster Risk is projected to severely compromise agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions. • By 2050, between 350 million and 600 million people are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change. Fig. Africa’s climate zones by Raúl Iván Alfaro-Pelico, 2010

10. 2. Water Related Disasters in Africa • African Sahel - past 30 years • A 25% decrease in rainfall • Hydro-meteorological disasters in Africa • 66.5% in 2000-2009 • 82.6% share in 2010 • Drought and flood hit same places in the continent at different times • Strong relation between • Drought and famine • Flood and epidemic

11. 2. Water Related Disasters in AfricaClimate extremes in Africa Trends in drought and flood events in Africa • Hydrometeorlogical disasters in Africa (Shongwe et al., 2011) • East Africa • 1980s – 3 events per yr • 1990s – 7 events per yr • 2000-2006–10 events per yr • Southern Africa • 1980s – 5 events per yr • 2000-2006 – 18 events per yr 11

12. 3. Water Disasters: Drought, Flood, Storm, Drought: • A situation of moisture deficit with adverse effect on vegetation, animals, and man over considerable area • Meteorological drought: • Abnormally dry, prolonged weather period for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area • Agricultural drought: • A climatic condition involving a shortage of precipitation that adversely affect crop or pasture production • Hydrologic drought: • A period of below average water content in streams, reservoirs, Groundwater aquifers, lakes and soils Both agricultural and hydrologic droughts lag behind the meteorological drought

13. 3. Water Disasters: Drought, Flood, Storm, Flood: • Floods are caused by weather phenomena and events that deliver more precipitation to a drainage basin than can be readily absorbed or stored within the basin (USGS) • Major types of flood include: • Coastal Flood • Flash Flood • Urban Flood • River Flood

14. Dry Wet Dry Months Rainfall for Various Return Periods for the Upper Blue Nile Basin

15. Dry Wet Wet Months Rainfall for Various Return Periods for the Upper Blue Nile Basin

16. Rainfall – Runoff magnitude and frequecny Rainfall (red) and discharge (blue) frequency curves

17. Tanzania flooding (December, 2011) The Salender Bridge which was partly damaged by floods  Conveyance capacity of drainage system is too low in most African cities due to improper design and construction • The heaviest rains • since 1961 17

18. Manycountries face multi-hazards • Mozambique • Droughts • Floods • Salt intrusion to groundwater • Cyclones • 3‐4 per year get to landfalls • Kenya • 2011-2012 – drought • Recently – deadly flooding in some parts • We need to look at approaches that can help us to address risks from multi-hazards 18

19. 3. Water Disasters: Aggravating factors Source: UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre, World Atlas of Desertification, 1997 • Flood plain settlement • Population often being concentrated in risky areas such as flood plains • E.g Gulf of guinea, costal areas of south east Africa, Nile delta and Wabishebelle river basin in East Africa. Climate change Environmental degradation • Increases the intensity of natural hazards and is often the factor that transforms the hazard into a disaster • River and lake floods are aggravated or even caused by deforestation which in turn causes erosion & river clogging.

20. 4. Prospects under climate change: Scientific Consensus • The climate system is driven by solar radiation from the Sun • Phenomena that affect the energy balance of the climate system would ultimately alter the climate

21. 4. Prospects under climate change: Scientific Consensus Global warming is caused by the emission of GHG & their increasing concentration in the atmosphere due to human activities Concentration of the major GHG has increased since 1750 Carbon dioxide (CO2) increased by 32% Methane (CH4) increased by 150% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) increased by 17% The increase in atmospheric CO2:- fossil-fuel burning and land use change including deforestation The increase in CH4 & N2O : - emissions from energy use, livestock, rice agriculture, and landfill.

22. 4. Prospects under climate change: Scientific Consensus • Earth’s climate results from interactions of many processes in the components of the climate system: Anthropogenic system (human activities) disturb the balance • The climate system and hydrological balance change as a result • - temperature increase in Africa • - warm atmosphere which absorb more water vapor and an increase in humidity, • -more water moving through the hydrological cycle, more extreme event

23. Climate ChangeMitigation and adaptation through better water management Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is mainly about water.

24. Impact of climate change – snow melt- Climate change is already heating Africa • The icecap on Kilimanjaro disappearing • Reduction of the icecap by ~82% since 1912 • It may disappear within 15 years • Drying out of several rivers 24

25. Shrinking of Lake Chad Driven by climate change or land use change? Lake Chad in a 2001 satellite image, with the actual lake in blue, and vegetation on top of the old lake bed in green. Above that, the changes from 1973 to 1997 are shown.

26. 4. Prospects under climate change – sea level rise • > 25 % of Africa’s population lives within 100 km of the coast • 30 percent of Africa’s coastal countries is at risk of inundation • The most flood risk occurs in • North, West and Southern Africa • Small Islands • Impacts of sea level rise: • Reduced productivity of coastal fisheries; • Migration and health issues; • negative impacts on tourism; . • In Alexandria, • US$563.28 billion worth of assets could be damaged or lost due to coastal flooding alone by 2070 26

27. 5. Water disaster impacts to key sectors • Agricultural Sector (water infrastructures, irrigation development, production, productivity, seeds genotype, the sector development) • Energy sector (hydropower) • Health(human, animal) • Environment(biodiversity, ecosystem equilibrium & sustainability) • Economy(growth and sustainable development) • Human settlement and migration (life, houses, livelihood) 27

28. Impacts– agriculture and economy Climate is already changing and Africa already impacted Ethiopia: Extreme variability affecting GDP as agriculture is affected Burkina Faso: Variability linked to cereal productivity Kenya:30-50% around the mean- drought & flood Loss in production, infrastructure, and increased poverty

29. Impacts: production, livelihood, settlement • Impacts on Production System • Flood Impacts on Shelter with displacement & migration from one area to another • Drought influence infectious diseases such meningitis, • Deplete food & cash savings 29

30. Impacts: production, livelihood, settlement The weak Infrastructures in Africa National Security Impact on the drinkable water and water sanitation River Basin 30

31. 6. Water Disaster Management (W-DM) • Impacts depend on • Climate extremes • Exposure • Vulnerability Non-extreme event can produce extreme impact • Extremes, exposure, vulnerability • Affected by anthropogenic CC and variability and development DRR and DRM need to address decreasing exposure and vulnerability 31

32. 6. W-DM : Flood Protection Measures Example: Structural Measures • Understanding flood magnitude and frequency • Protection measures; • Flood plain, bank expansion, dykes, … • Flood control reservoirs • Diversion of flood • Management solutions: evacuation of people

33. 6.W-DM : Water Storage Continuum for Adaptation Maximize benefit through multi-purpose development

34. 6. W-DM Coping Mechanisms • Examples of Existing coping mechanisms of Water disaster Across African: • Malawi: Mainstreaming disaster reduction for sustainable poverty reduction • Cameroon: Flood recovery and resiliency program • Ethiopia: Facilitating provision of baseline vulnerability information on flood exposed communities; Crop insurance programme • Ghana: Sustainable development, disaster prevention, and water resources management • Burkina Faso: Integrated weather risk management for sustained growth Farmers need access to weather and market information to make decisions, especially as climate change alters historical patterns. 34

35. 6. W-DM Recommendations Enhance knowledge management and policy towards DRM Systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causes of disasters Foster awareness of the importance of disaster risk reduction Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning (weather, nutritional surveillance in chronic drought period) Improve emergency response, awareness and preparedness; assist in post-disaster situations Ensure that DRR & DRM are national and local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation Adopt integrated water resources & environment management Enhance social protection, timely intervention & cash savings Invest in dams and water reservoir infrastructures 35

36. 7 The ClimDev Africa Programme • ClimDev-Africa: Climate for development in Africa • Initiative of UNECA, AUC and AfDB • Mandate: Meeting of heads of state as well as by Africa’s Ministers of Finance, Planning and Environment • The program addresses use of climate information for development activities

37. 7. The ClimDev Africa Programme Construct solid foundation in Africa for the response to climate change based on: • Building solid science and observational infrastructure; • Enabling strong working partnerships between government institutions, private sector, civil society and vulnerable communities; and, • Creation and strengthening of knowledge frameworks to support and integrate the actions required. To achieve this, the three result areas of the Programme are: • Widely available climate information, packaging and dissemination; • Quality analysis for decision support and management practice; and, • Informed decision-making, awareness and advocacy.

38. 7. The ClimDev Africa Programme The input areas for delivering the Programme are: UNECA: • Establishes African Climate Policy Centre • Secretariat for ClimDev Africa program • Coordinate and strengthen the policy response of climate change, building the capacities of sub-regional and national organizations AUC: • Provides the political leadership and coordinate continental policy response and global negotiations • Establish CCDU unit at its head quarter AfDB • Establishes and manages the Trust Fund (CDSF)

39. 7 Governance Structure Meetings of the Chief Executives of the AUC, UNECA and AfDB ClimDevProgramme Steering Committee (CDSC) (AUC, UNECA, AfDB and others) Technical Advisory Panel ClimDev-Africa Special Fund (AfDB - CDSF) African Climate Policy Centre (UNECA - ACPC) Climate Change and Desertification Unit (AUC - CCDU) Stakeholder forums e.g. Climate Change and Dev. Conf. & other forums/platforms Regional / sub-regional level RECs/SROs, Regional/Sub-Regional Climate Institutions, RBOs, Research Institutions National level NMHSs, Sectoral Actors (public sector, private sector, civil society)

40. The ACPC Climate and Dev’t Climate and Development Policy Community Practice Community Research Community • Knowledge generation and sharing • Advocacy and consensus building • Technical coop’n and capacity dev. • Frameworks, strategies, plans • Case studies and examples • Research and partnerships ACPC Climate finance and economics Climate resilient development Low carbon development Climate science, data and information

41. Development 1st Climate Resilient Development Low Carbon Development Energy Access Climate Finance Infrastructure Networks Water Agriculture Land Use Forests Disaster Risk Red’n Early Warning Climate Change Meets Policy Thank you sbekele@uneca.org