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Lecture 1: Background of Transition Engineering. Dimensions. Continuum of Survival . Security Lifetimes – Generations Territorial – Regional Organizations - Populations. Sustainability Continuous Global Civilizations - Species. Safety Daily – Annual Immediate – Local
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Lecture 1: Background of Transition Engineering Dimensions Continuum of Survival Security Lifetimes – Generations Territorial – Regional Organizations - Populations Sustainability Continuous Global Civilizations - Species Safety Daily – Annual Immediate – Local Individuals - Families Time Space Relationships
Lecture 1: Background of Transition Engineering Safety Security Sustainability Safety Engineering Natural Hazards Engineering Reliability Engineering Environmental Engineering Waste Management Engineering Transition Engineering
Lecture 2: Methods for Transition Engineering 3 Future Scenarios and Risk Assessment Forward Operating Environment Energy Supply/Demand 2 6 Present Trigger Events 7 Change Projects Path-Break Concepts 4 5 Back-Casting 1 History Development Timeline
Lecture 3: Risks and Forward Scenarios Extrapolated Demand Mitigation Measures Energy Supply/Demand Historical Production Supply Shortfall Known Supply Change Projects Future Years Past Years
Lecture 3: Risks and Forward Scenarios – Mythologies of technological progress One Liter Volume of On-Board Energy Storage 9,308 kWh 10,000 4,121 kWh 2,778 kWh 2,222 kWh 1000 100 Energy Density (kWh/Liter) 10 kWh 10 3.2 kWh 1.0 0.1 kWh 0.1 Petroleum Methanol Methane @STP Liquid H2 Metal Hydride H2 H2 @STP Battery
Lecture 3: Forward Operating Environment EROI = 25 P = 100 units (b) EROI = 15 P = 75 units Demand Reduction Production & Maintenance Growth, Production Maintenance 24 Energy Production 30 Consumption Consumption 70 75 46 96 100 66 The Economy 3 2 2 2 The Economy Production & Maintenance (c) EROI = 15 P = 75 units Decline 4 Consumption Net Energy 70 75 66 The Economy 3 2
Lecture 3: Dynamics of Economics for Finite Resource Development (b) Peak of low cost resources & development of higher cost resources (a) Discovery & expanding development of low-cost resources Price (c) Production capacity shortage & demand destruction Cumulative Production
Lecture 3: Forward Operating Environment Unconstrained Consumption Inelastic Demand Destruction Reaction to Crises Adaptive Capacity Engineered Transition Reduction of Energy or Resource Consumption [%] Threshold for impact on essential activities and goods Low Moderate High Extreme Pressure for Change
Lecture 4: Complex System Dynamics Resources from Nature Primary Energy, Water Availability, Location Energy Density, Variability • Energy Conversion • Technology, Cost • Performance • Efficiency • Electricity Distribution Market, Location Security, Delivery Price • Electricity Demand • User Behavior • Services, Appliances Impacts Waste Heat Pollution
Lecture 4: Complex System Dynamics Set Points External Inputs/Outputs System Dynamics Activating Signal Reference Signal Control Signal Directive Performance Forward Elements Reference Elements Control Elements Actuators + - Detector Comparator Feedback Elements Feedback Signal
End-user Technology Infrastructure Energy Systems Material Systems Lecture 3: Complex System Dynamics Standards, Innovation, Engineering, Investment, Enterprise, Policy Regulations Individual and Shared Cultural Vision Set Points Directive Reference Actuation Control Performance Physical System Built Environment Safety Security Sustainability Reason, Knowledge, Experience Quality & Utility Decisions Actuators Economics Primary Feedback Observation, Perception Reason, Analysis Human Activity System Measurements, Observation, Science Feedback R W Regional System Boundary Interaction with and Impact on Regional and Global Environment Resources Wastes Disturbances
Lecture 5: Strategic Analysis of Complex Systems – Generating Path Break Concepts Step 1 - Survey, Audit, and Characterize Regional Energy System PAST Energy Supply System Activity and Services • Essentiality, Social/Cultural Values PRESENT Renewable Energy Depletion Risks Environment Risks FUTURE Scenarios &Gap Analysis Adaptive Capacity Target Future Date & Resource Availability Step 2 - Develop the Possibility Space ROWS Specifyenergy supply options available to end-users,and a range of end use technologies and behaviors or choices COLUMNS Specify options for infrastructure, built environment, energy supply system described by level of service Step 3 - Develop the Feasibility Space Develop engineering models of possible option defined by the possibility space, and simulate performance Evaluate technical feasibility of each possible option and eliminate the ones which are not feasible due to technical or resource availability or fail to achieve the future resource targets Step 4 - Develop the Opportunity Space For each feasible system: Assess costs for development and operation • Assess environmental impact risks • Assess energy supply risks • Assess probability of realization in the time-frame • Designate relative opportunity by color and by probability
Infrastructure Concepts Built Environment Concepts Technology Concepts Behavior Concepts Behavior 4 used in Infrastructure D
Built Environment Concepts Infrastructure Concepts Not Feasible Technology Concepts Behavior Concepts
Built Environment Concepts Infrastructure Concepts Technology Concepts Behavior Concepts
Low Cost High EROI Low Risk High Cost Low EROI High Risk
Low Cost High EROI Low Risk Possible Unlikely Unlikely No No No High Cost Low EROI High Risk Possible No Possible Unlikely No Possible Unlikely No No Red Orange Yellow Green
Lecture 8: Transition Change Projects 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 Future Scenarios and Risk Assessment Forward Operating Environment Energy Supply/Demand 2 6 Present Trigger Events 7 Change Projects Path-Break Concepts 4 5 Back-Casting 1 History Transition Timeline
Assessment • System Characterization • Scope Definition • Identify Issues & Risks Essentiality
Analysis • Set Targets & Timelines • Adaptive Capacity • Re-development Concepts
Application • Design • Build & Test • Evaluate & Improve • Implement & Report