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Development of Renewables/Efficiency Scenario

Development of Renewables/Efficiency Scenario. SSG-WI Planning Work Group Meeting July 31, 2002 John Nielsen Land and Water Fund of the Rockies. Presentation Objectives. Provide an overview of Interior West Clean Energy Plan (IWCEP)

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Development of Renewables/Efficiency Scenario

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  1. Development of Renewables/Efficiency Scenario SSG-WI Planning Work Group Meeting July 31, 2002 John Nielsen Land and Water Fund of the Rockies

  2. Presentation Objectives • Provide an overview of Interior West Clean Energy Plan (IWCEP) • Open dialogue on how information from IWCEP can assist SSG-WI efforts to develop renewables/efficiency transmission planning scenarios. • Open dialogue on how information developed through SSG-WI effort can inform and strengthen IWCEP in terms of • understanding historic transmission system congestion • consensus estimates of future load and resource projections under a BAU scenario • understanding expansion of clean energy markets

  3. IWCEP Overview • Objective is to develop a viable long-term clean electric energy plan for the Interior West • Relative to a BAU plan clean energy plan will include significantly increased investments in RE/EE/DG • Study will compare costs, benefits, and environmental and risk implications of clean energy plan relative to BAU

  4. IWCEP Overview (cont.) • Transmission system impacts of Clean Energy Plan will be analyzed • Areas where RE/EE/DG resources can help alleviate transmission system constraints • Areas where transmission system upgrades needed to bring remote renewables to market • PROSYM model used to estimate costs, air emissions and transmission system impacts of BAU and Clean Energy Plans.

  5. Who’s Involved • Funding • $200,000 grant from Hewlett Foundation • $25,000 grant from DOE to focus on transmission issues • Project Team • John Nielsen (LAW Fund) Tim Wolf (Synapse Energy Economics) • David Berry (LAW Fund) Steve Bernow (Tellus) • Ron Lehr (Project Advisor) Jayson Attonoff (GIS consulting) • Advisory Committee • utility industry reps, independent power producers, renewable developers, PUC regulators, state energy office officials, environmental and clean energy advocates, DOE, NREL

  6. Planning Horizon • 18 years – 2002-2020 • Results presented for years: • 2002 • 2008 • 2014 • 2020

  7. Geographic Scope • Seven state Interior West region – AZ, CO, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY • PROSYM modeling will include CA and PNW but we will not develop clean energy plans for those regions. • Instead, for CA & PWN will draw on existing studies/information (e.g. NWEC, CEC)

  8. Geographic Detail • PROSYM will analyze the operation of the electric system within 24 distinct transmission areas (“trans areas”) • Inputs to study will be developed at the trans area level • Results presented at the trans area, state, and regional level

  9. Clean Energy Plan Development • Step 1: Forecast peak load and energy requirements by trans area • Step 2: Identify clean energy resource potential by trans area • Step 3: Specify clean energy resources to be developed within each trans area taking into account resource potential, costs and transmission system

  10. Renewable Resource Assessment • Starting point is Renewable Energy Atlas of the West produced by LAW Fund and NWSEED • Atlas compiles most recent data on wind, solar, geothermal, biomass resources into single GIS database • GIS technology allows identification of resource potential within each PROSYM trans area • Areas with best renewable resource potential • Able to exclude lands where development is inappropriate or problematic • Able to apply transmission screen to identify sites near existing transmission lines and substations likely to be more economically developable

  11. Identifying Renewable Resource Potential by Trans Area • Wind example • Identify land acres by wind class (Class 4,5,6 &7) • Screen out excluded lands • Steep terrain (slope of greater than 20%) • Water bodies, wetlands,urban areas • Federally designated environmentally sensitive areas • All NPS lands • All Fish and Wildlife lands • Specific FS lands – Nat. Grasslands, Nat. Monuments, Nat. Recreation Areas, Nat. Scenic Areas, Wilderness Areas/Study Areas • Specific BLM lands – Nat. Conservation Areas, Nat. Recreation Areas, Forest Reserves, Nat. Monuments, Wilderness Areas/Study Areas.

  12. Wind Example (cont.) • Within seven-state study region, disaggregate state-level data to trans area level. • Work with wind developers to identify locations within trans areas most likely for development based on: • resource quality • transmission access/congestion • any other relevant factors (e.g. siting considerations) • For PROSYM modeling will compile more detailed seasonal and day/night profiles for these specific wind resources – based on Atlas data and other sources (e.g. NREL, developers)

  13. Other Clean Energy Resources • Similar process for other renewable resources -- biomass, geothermal, solar • Energy efficiency • Assessment of Interior West energy efficiency potential based on current SWEEP study • Distributed Generation • Assessment for Interior West being done by Tellus • Focus on CHP

  14. Timeline

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