Planning for Change: Understanding the Murray-Darling Basin ‘Beyond the Count’ ABS conference

1. Planning for Change:Understanding the Murray-Darling Basin‘Beyond the Count’ ABS conference Jim Donaldson 4 March 2011

3. Aim of presentation • To provide a taste of how Census data has been used to make a difference in water resource planning in the Murray-Darling Basin • discuss some of the challenges involved: policy and information

4. The Murray-Darling Basin

5. The Murray-Darling Basin

6. Murray-Darling Basin • 14% of Australia (size of Spain & France) • Directly supports 3 million people • Feeds approximately 20 million people • Significant environmental values • Australia’s three longest rivers • 40% Australia’s farmers • Gross value of agricultural production $15b (40% Australia) – irrigation: $5.5b (15%) • Agricultural exports earn $9b/year • Home to 34 major Indigenous groups

7. Hydrology of the Basin 7

8. Growth in Basin diversions 8

9. Consumptive water use 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 GL 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Other Households Water supply industries industry

10. Current Trend (CSIRO Water Availability – 2008)

11. Ecosystem Health Assessments by Valley, 2004-07

12. The need for water reform • Return extraction of water to a more sustainable level • Support ecological health of the Basin • Build a more certain future for communities • Sustain economic output over long term • Manage water resources for future generations

13. Building on past reform 1901 Constitution 1914 River Murray Commission 1987 Murray-Darling Basin Commission 1990’s Cap on Diversions & Water markets 2010 Guide to the proposed Basin Plan 2008 COAG Agreement 2007 Water Act & Murray-Darling Basin Authority 2004 National Water Initiative & The Living Murray 13

14. What’s the issue? Rebalancing water use in the MDB What’s the right balance? Trade-offs: optimise economic, social and environmental outcomes Measuring the benefits and the costs Water Act sets environmental thresholds

15. The planning process How much additional water does the environment need? What are the potential impacts on the community? What are the sustainable diversion limit proposals? How to manage the transition? 15

16. What we were asked to do Describe social and economic circumstances of Basin communities dependent on Basin water resources Assess the likely economic and social implications of setting SDLs and developing the Basin Plan Inform setting of SDLs: OPTIMISE outcomes Report on implications to government

17. Socio-economic assessments 16 studies undertaken: • Baseline socio-economic circumstances** • Review of structural adjustment pressures • Economic modelling and analysis • Local community profiles and assessments • Indicators of community vulnerability** • Effects of SDLs on Indigenous people • Assessment of benefits • Responses of financial institutions to changes • Cost benefit analysis 17

18. Socio-economic context report Description of Basin communities Baseline Data store Community profiles Monitoring and evaluation

19. Rural population trends

20. Population Projections - Basin

21. Population trends 2001-06

22. Population change by region

23. Indigenous population change

24. Population Age by Sex

25. Employment 2001-06

26. Key trends and messages • Population is growing in the Basin • There is a shift from remote to urban • Employment in the Basin is growing • Young working population declining • However, employment in agriculture is declining • Provides some baseline data …

27. Analysing impacts on community • Impact of different water reductions • Impact of reductions on different farming sectors • Off-farm or flow-on impacts (to business and community) • Impact of reduction at Basin and regional scales 27

28. Reports

29. Community vulnerability • Project on ‘Indicators of community vulnerability and adaptive capacity across the Murray-Darling Basin’ • Undertaken by ABARES

30. What is ‘community vulnerability’? • Vulnerability: the degree to which a community is susceptible to pressures and disturbances, such as climate change or socio-economic processes • The key questions: • Who is more vulnerable? • Why are particular populations vulnerable? • How do the vulnerabilities of regions compare? … to reductions in water availability for consumptive purposes across the Basin

31. Vulnerability and its components Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

32. The project approach • Composite indices - a widely accepted method for developing socio-economic indicators to measure change • Based on a review of the literature related to indicator development using variables from census data sets • These variables were theoretically derived and statistically verified to represent the constructs being measured

33. Criteria for indicator development

34. Sensitivity Sub-index Indicators Components Volume of irrigation water applied on farms % Agricultural businesses irrigating Water dependence Sensitivity Local economy agricultural dependence Farm employment Agricultural processing and downstream employment a measure of how dependent a community is upon the resource that is changing – e.g. irrigation water

35. Adaptive capacity Components Sub-index Indicators Economic diversity index Local economic diversity Education levels Housing Income Employment Age structure Mobility Adaptive Capacity Human capital Volunteering rates Women in non-routine jobs Social capital Ability or potential of a community to adapt or change its characteristics or behaviour to cope better with change

36. Community vulnerability Sub-index Composite index Sensitivity Vulnerability Adaptive capacity The degree to which a community is susceptible to pressures and disturbances, such as climate change or socio-economic processes

38. Community vulnerability

39. Murrumbidgee vulnerability

40. Murrumbidgee sensitivity

41. Murrumbidgee land use

42. Why is Coleambally more sensitive?

43. Murrumbidgee adaptive capacity

44. Why is Coleambally less adaptive?

45. Interpreting the output Interpret at highest level, highlighting ‘communities’ with high degrees of vulnerability to changes in water access Investigate reasons for differences in community vulnerability by examining the underlying variables (e.g. regional comparison example) Aggregate results to other ‘geographies’ depending on scope of analysis Establish a baseline measure for monitoring

46. Economic Modelling • Modelling of economic implications of potential reductions in water availability • Agricultural sector and regional flow-on effects • Changes in value of irrigated agriculture • Regional economy impacts (Gross Regional Product, Employment) • Data from other sources: e.g. Agricultural Census and surveys, Water Account

48. Key messages • Census data is critical to understand the structure, dependencies and changes occurring in communities • But Census data is insufficient for analysis of effects of water reform • This brings challenges in ability to match and analyse data – consistency and compatibility

49. Data issues and challenges • Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future! (Niels Bohr) • Currency of data for use in modelling • 2006 and 2001 data: challenge of looking forward when data is already old • E.g. 2006 a drought year and face of rural Australia has reportedly changed much in the last 5 years • Ability to match data from different sources and aggregate / disgregate • Economic data, water data, land use data, social data • E.g. agricultural census / surveys and Pop’n Census

50. Data issues and challenges • Ability to cut data flexibly for non-standard geographies • Ability to do time series analyses • Data is often not available at a regional scale and / or not frequently enough to meet priority data needs, e.g. • Regular agricultural data • Small area wealth data • Water use data at a regional scale • Water practices and behaviour