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Workplace Choice Model: Insights into Spatial Patterns of Commuting in 3 Metropolitan Regions

Workplace Choice Model: Insights into Spatial Patterns of Commuting in 3 Metropolitan Regions. Peter Vovsha, Surabhi Gupta, Joel Freedman, Heather Fujioka (PB) Wu Sun (SANDAG) Vladimir Livshits (MAG) . Importance of Workplace Choice. Cornerstone of demand model:

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Workplace Choice Model: Insights into Spatial Patterns of Commuting in 3 Metropolitan Regions

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  1. Workplace Choice Model:Insights into Spatial Patterns of Commuting in 3 Metropolitan Regions Peter Vovsha, Surabhi Gupta, Joel Freedman, Heather Fujioka (PB) Wu Sun (SANDAG) Vladimir Livshits (MAG) Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, May 2011

  2. Importance of Workplace Choice • Cornerstone of demand model: • Usual workplace choice in ABM • HBW trip distribution in 4-Step • New observed phenomena and tendencies: • Growing share of work from home & telecommuting • More specialized occupations • Advantages of ABM framework: • Directly comparable to Census/ACS • Unlimited segmentation (occupation, income, gender) • Disaggregate estimation & application of utility functions Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  3. General Model Framework • Worker characteristics: • Person (age, occupation, gender, education, etc) • HH (income, composition, age of children) • Residential location (accessibility to relevant jobs) Work at home permanently Usual workplace out of home Individual accessibility TAZ 1: Jobs TAZ 2: Jobs TAZ N: Jobs … Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  4. Workplace Type Choice Utility Accessibility to jobs Work out of home: Occupation Person type Workplace zone Workplace zone choice utility Residential zone Work at home: Person & HH attributes Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  5. Workplace Location Choice Utility Occupation Person type /Zone size term (relevant jobs) Residential zone Mode /Mode choice logsum Workplace zone /Distance decay function Elemental functions /Agglomeration & competition effects Competing locations Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  6. Distance Decay Function • Linear combination of elemental distance (D) functions: • LN(D) • D0.5 • D • D2 • D3 • Great degree of flexibility in describing various non-linear effects Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  7. Research Focus • Factors affecting work from home • Factors affecting choice of out-of-home location: • Level of segmentation of workers & jobs in the size variable (income group, occupation) • Individual perception of accessibility to job (willingness to spend time on commuting) Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  8. Transferability • Workplace location choice model with a rich set of socio-economic and travel/accessibility variables transferable from region to region? • If not, what are the specific regional conditions that create uniqueness and are not incorporated in the model? • Same model structure estimated and validated for 3 different regions Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  9. 3 Metropolitan Regions Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  10. Workplace Type Choice – Work from Home (MAG/PAG) Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  11. Predicting Future for Working from Home & Telecommuting • Rapidly growing %: • Work from home • Full or partial telecommuting • Compressed & flexible work schedules • Result of: • Communication technology • Structural shifts in occupation and industries • One of the biggest unknowns: • Saturation or trends will hold? • Significant impacts on congestion levels (reduction) and VMT (mixed): • Effective policy variable • Sensitivity tests possible with model that has this component as policy lever Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  12. Observed Commuting TLD Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  13. Segmentation of Workers and Jobs by Occupation (MAG/PAG) • Workers in NHTS 2008 are classified by 5 occupation categories: • Sales, marketing • Clerical, administrative, retail, • Production, construction, farming, transport • Professional, managerial, technical • Personal care or services • Jobs in each TAZ are classified by 2-digit NAICS codes (26 categories) • 26 to 5 correspondence used to segment the size variables by 5 categories Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  14. Segmentation of Distance Decay Functions • 2 worker status categories: • Full-time (30+hours per week) • Part-time (<30 hours per week) • 3 gender / household composition categories: • Male • Female w/child U6 • Female w/o child U6 • 3 household income groups: • Low (<$50K) • Medium ($50K-$100K) • High ($100K+) • Results in 2×3×3=18 segments Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  15. Estimation of Distance Decay Functions • Baseline worker case: • Male • Full-time • Medium HH income ($50K-$100K) • Main impacts on top of the baseline found in all 3 regions: • Female gender: • With preschool child U6 • W/o preschool child U6 • Part-time • Low income (<$50K) • High income (>=$100K) • Mode choice logsum coefficient kept 0.5 across all three regions that is close to the original estimated values Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  16. Baseline Distance Decay SANDAG jobs are closer to population compared to MAG while PAG is a smaller compact region Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  17. Impact of Part-Time Work Part-time workers look for local jobs; the tendency is most prominent in small regions like PAG for short commuting under 10 miles (majority of cases) Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  18. Impact of Low Income Low-income workers look for local jobs and are less specialized in occupation; the tendency is less prominent in small regions like PAG Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  19. Impact of High Income High-income workers do not look for local jobs; for MAG high-income workers could not be distinguished from medium-income workers (baseline) Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  20. Impact of Female Gender There is still a gender bias; females, especially with small children tend to avoid long-distance commuting; w/o children the bias is less prominent, especially in a small region like PAG Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  21. Composition of All Impacts (MAG) Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  22. Validation, SANDAG, 8×8 Major Statistical Areas No K-factors needed! Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  23. Conclusions / Main Factors • Segmentation by occupation to connect right workers by place of residence to the right jobs • Commuting distance has a complex non-linear effect on workplace choice differentiated by person type: • Constrained time budgets result in cut-off thresholds (40-60 min) • Minimal commuting time is acceptable and usable resulting in a low-sensitivity region (0-30 min) • Incorporation of these non-linear effects in mode choice logsum instead of distance-based terms: • Theoretically appealing • Practically difficult to achieve: mode choice and destination choice are subject to different considerations, time scales, and constraints Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  24. Conclusions / Transferability • Main factors and effects generic across regions • Function forms and coefficients specific to each region (more rigorous stat tests needed) • Region size, transportation accessibility, and spatial structure of population & jobs affect the results Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  25. Conclusions / Differences • Aggregate constraints shape spatial structure: • SANDAG and MAG regions are bigger than PAG; most PAG specifics stem from the smaller size; however: • SANDAG region has less separation between population and employment; SANDAG TLD is closer to PAG; SANDAG baslinedistance decay function is the strongest • Individual behavior adjusted to regional “norms”: • In MAG region both medium and high income workers equally tolerant to longer commuting • In small region like PAG gender differences not prominent w/o small children Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  26. Conclusions / Application • In principle, results applicable to all types of models (ABM and 4-Step): • Segmentation of size variables (constraints) by occupation (5+ categories) • Segmentation of impedance function by income, gender, and worker status (18 categories) • In practice: • Difficult to apply with 4-Step because of the limited segmentation (60+ segments needed) • Easy to incorporate in microsimulation ABM • Segmentation of workers and jobs by occupation require LU model Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

  27. Thanks for Your Attention! • Q? Planning Applications Conference, Reno, NV, 9-12 May 2011

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