Game Changers: Why Tomorrow Won’t Be the Same

1. Game Changers:Why Tomorrow Won’t Be the Same MIM 544 Cliff Allen, Ph.D. Lee Buddress, Ph.D., C.P.M.

2. Agenda • Intro to the Course • Syllabus Overview • ISM Data Review • PPT and Discussion • Form Teams • Leola Milling Case • Review and Next Class

3. Economic Reports • ISM – National • JP Morgan – Global • U of O - Oregon

4. ISM Report on Business • Change Indices • Derivation • ISM Report on Business • Accuracy • Timeliness • Leading Indicator

5. Economic Concerns • Globally, Families Lost Large % Assets • Families Reluctant to Spend Until Assets Recovered • Industry Consolidation • Privatization

6. Economic Concerns • Labor Availability • Retirements • Stability in Numbers of Women Entering Workforce • Shortages • Ex: In U.S., Long Haul Truckers • Ex: China – Skill Levels and Retention • What Caused the Great Recession?

7. Game Changer # 1 • Fundamental Economic Changes • Smaller • Cars • Houses • Consumer Spending • Capital Investment • Debt Financing • Personal • Business • Labor Availability

8. Global Population Forecast

9. Global Sustainability Changes • Population • 7 Billion (October, 2011) • Over 5.5 Billion in Less Developed Countries • Africa: Growth So High Population Will Triple • 1 Bil Now, 3.6 Bil Forecast by 2100 • Yemen:25 to 100 Million • Nigeria 162 to 730 Million • U.S. Faster Than Most Developed Countries • Immigration and High Hispanic Birthrate (311M – 478M) • All of This Assumes Food & Water Available Source: UN Forecasts

10. The Global Example • UN Forecast • World Population 2011: 7.0 Billion • World Population 2050: 9.3 Billion • Today: Half of Population in Urban Areas • 2050: 70% in Urban Areas • 2050: 27 Mega-Cities of Over 10 Million • 2050: 97% of Growth from LDCs • How Will Infrastructure Support Growing Population?

11. Game Changer #2 • Global Population Changes Will Drive Shortages in Basics of Life • Water • Food • Shelter • Poverty • Unrest Results

12. Population and Congestion • Population 400 Million by 2043 • Population Increase in Next 15 Years • Washington +23% • Oregon +25% • Port of Portland Forecast • Cost of Congestion Study • Chronic Underfunding of Infrastructure • U.S. • India

13. Aviation D Bridges C Dams D Drinking Water D- Energy D+ Haz Waste D Inland W ways D- Levees D- Parks And Rec C - Rail C- Roads D- Schools D Security I Solid Waste C+ Transit D Wastewater D- OVERALL D Need $2.2 Trillion American Society of Civil Engineers 2009 Infrastructure Report Card

14. U of Texas Infrastructure Study: Portland • Time Congested: 65 % • Excess Fuel Consumption: 34 Mil Gal • Total Delay (Person Hours): 40 Mil • Truck Congestion Cost: $265 Mil • Cost Per Peak Auto Commuter: $ 830 2009 Data (latest available)

15. The Net Results Infrastructure Deteriorating Faster than Repair Congestion at All Levels Difficulty Locating Logistical Capacity Increased Lead Times Increased Inventories Increased Costs Increased Supply Chain Uncertainty and Risk Global Competitiveness and Infrastructure

16. Game Changer #3 • Infrastructure Deficiencies Decrease Competitiveness • China and Other Developing Nations Invest Massively in Infrastructure • We Have Political Gridlock

17. Rethinking Popular Supply Chain Strategies • Outsourcing • Single Sourcing • Lean Philosophies • Sustainability is Sourcing Criterion • ISO 14000 • Supplier Sustainability Practices • Supply Chain Risk Analysis is Key

18. Game Changer #4 • Recent Supply Chain Strategies Shifting

19. Where Are We Going • New Technologies are Key Focus • Sustainability • Risk Management • Inflation • Speculation • Privatization • Education

20. Risk and Sustainability Supply Chain Risk Sustainability Environmental Non-Renewable Resource Energy Consumption Emissions Hazardous Materials Social Responsibility Ethics Gender Equity Living Wage Labor and Relationships Organizational Profitability, LT Viability Customer Perceptions Customer Relationships • External • Governmental • Infrastructure • Supplier • Logistical • Terrorism • Natural Disasters • Accidents • Internal • Policies • Administrative • Operational • Organizational • Ethics

21. A Look Forward: More Game Changers • BRIC and Other Emerging Nation Growth • Particle Deposition Technology • Quick Charge Batteries • $140/bbl Oil • Natural Disasters and SC Interruptions • Sustainability • Infrastructure

22. Supply and Logistics Education • Increasingly Complex Processes • Increasing Dependence on Systems and Information Technology • Mega-Facilities and Equipment • Funding of Infrastructure • Increasing Globalization • Pace of Change Increasing • Increase in Emphasis on Education

23. Thoughts on Case Analysis • Think like business people, not just SLM people • Read the cases carefully. As with many other things, it’s all in the details • DO NOT read into the case more than there is • If there are issues beyond the control of the case decision makers, set them aside.

24. Thoughts on Case Analysis • The case is all there is. Do not go to the internet, or other sources. Take the problem as it is presented. • Always ask ‘why’. Get to the root cause of the problem, not the symptom • Be sure your solutions are workable in the case setting • Consider the cost of what you propose • Analyze both short and long term activities

25. General Supply Chain Strategies Supply Base Reduction Supply Base Addition Supplier Development Inventory Strategies VMI Consignments Lean Operations Simplification Standardization Automation Risk Management Identification Mitigation Cost Reduction Administrative Commodities Services Leveraging Technology Lead Time Management Sustainability

26. Questions, Comments, Observations, Conclusions, Arguments?