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Planning and policy or Planning by surprise

Planning and policy or Planning by surprise. Wim Timmermans Wageningen UR, VHL. Technical planning. Outcome of planning process depends on rational aspects as technical skills, equipment, budget. We build our own living area. Technical planning Communicative planning.

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Planning and policy or Planning by surprise

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  1. Planning and policyorPlanning by surprise Wim Timmermans Wageningen UR, VHL

  2. Technical planning Outcome of planning process depends on rational aspects as technical skills, equipment, budget.

  3. We build our own living area • Technical planning • Communicative planning Outcome also depends on communication, power, group dynamics

  4. Tom Wild: ‘Green adds value to the build environment’

  5. We had some doubts. We had the idea that policy decisions are often ‘fact free decisions’

  6. Interviews with some high level key players in investment projects In VALUE Is it crucial for your project that we prove that green adds Value?

  7. Approach: Open interviews • Data gathering by • In depthinterviews (open, informal) • Focus on soft and unofficial information

  8. Soft information • ‘Then suddenly..’ • ‘However I had the opinion..’ • ‘We put them under pressure..’ • ‘Then I felt that..’ • ‘After the meeting drinking a glass of wine, it came up that he was not at all convinced of ..’ • ‘The new governor however..’

  9. Narrative: Development company,Manchester • We invest in sustainable energy • We consider well designed and maintained green infrastructure not as a value increase but as preventing value decrease • We believe in sustainable innovations; we want to be front runner.

  10. Narrative: Esslingen • We made a development strategy for the future. ‘Esslingen 2027’ with a lot of possible projects • For our investment we talked about local economy, fish in the river instead of a green biking route • On the realization of projects we wait for the right moment

  11. Narrative Amersfoort • Arno made strong calculations to combine green development with housing • Suddenly (after elections) a new vice major decided that Randenbroek would just be a green development. “I was convinced that we would find money somewhere”. • Again one year later, suddenly she was gone

  12. Outcome of interviews: Decisions are not always based on rational calculations. Decisions can be taken by chance, intuition, pragmatism or ideology; sometimes without data.

  13. Moment of transition or tipping point Level of complexity 2 routine 7 Planning process 6 2 crisis 5 routine 1 4 3 2 Time

  14. Two types of governance • Efficiency driven • Calculate • Linear • Make a structure plan • Plan • Adaptive, design • Intuition • Non linear • Ideas • Ideology • Believe • Sudden change of government

  15. Two types of governance • Efficiency driven • Calculate • Linear • Make a structure plan • Plan • Adaptive, design • Intuition • Non linear • Ideas • Ideology • Believe • Sudden change of government ??

  16. Technical planning • Communicative planning • Planning by surprise Outcome depends on intuition, belief and pragmatism and can be highly unpredictable

  17. Results for the project • Is it crucial for your project that VALUE proves that green adds Value? • Efficiency driven: • Project level: yes, calculations show that green infrastructure works • Adaptive, by design: • Level of ideas: yes, calculations support ideology and belief, that economy needs green infrastructure

  18. Thank you for your attention

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