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Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003. Influence of model resolution.

Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003. Influence of model resolution. Andres Luhamaa University of Tartu 2005. Overview of the event. Precipitation amount: in one day 1.5 times more than monthly mean.

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Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003. Influence of model resolution.

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  1. Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003. Influence of model resolution. Andres Luhamaa University of Tartu 2005

  2. Overview of the event • Precipitation amount: in one day 1.5 times more than monthly mean. • High precipitation rates measured only in one (Estonian station)

  3. Radar observations, aug 05, 17.00 – aug06, 06.00

  4. Forecasts • EMHI – general storm warning for Gulf of Finland, nothing more. • FMI 22km forecast estimates high precipitation at the northern coast of Estonia.

  5. Modelling experiment • Influence of model resolution • 22km, 11km, 5km, 3km • HH and NHH • Reference HIRLAM and non-hydrostatic • Different versions of STRACO cloud scheme • HIRLAM 6.1.0 - STR1 • 6.1.2 (last major updates) - STR2 • Research version for high resolutions (<5km) called straco031 - STR3

  6. 11km STR-1 simulation FMI 22km forecast

  7. STR-2 NHH 11km simulation HH 11km simulation

  8. STR-1 NHH 5km simulation HH 5km simulation

  9. NHH STR-3 5km simulation HH STR-2 5km simulation NHH STR-2 5km simulation

  10. 3-km simulations NHH STR-3 NHH STR-1 NHH STR-2

  11. Conclusions: • Nothing better than 22km HH forecast could be achieved ;( • Significant difference between NHH and HH precipitation amounts already at 11km resolution! • Parameterization tuning for HH->NHH modeling? • As difference is only in amounts, is NHH necessary at coarser resolutions?

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