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PACABA 0.5 WHERE ARE WE HEADED ?

PACABA 0.5 WHERE ARE WE HEADED ?. 2 QUESTIONS. Will BN win ? Are we headed for bankruptcy ? You don’t have to believe a word that’s said !. Economics. Social. Politics. We make it simple by talking about 3 circles only!. THE RAT RACE SYSTEM. 1. POLITICS Electoral Outlook:.

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PACABA 0.5 WHERE ARE WE HEADED ?

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  1. PACABA 0.5WHERE ARE WE HEADED ?

  2. 2 QUESTIONS • Will BNwin ? • Are we headed for bankruptcy ? • You don’t have to believe a word that’s said !

  3. Economics Social Politics We make it simple by talking about 3 circles only! THE RAT RACE SYSTEM

  4. 1. POLITICSElectoral Outlook: BN IS LIKELY TO WIN, Although BN WANTSthe people to believethey can lose! Ong Kian Ming: Pakatan will only win Putrajaya in 14th GE

  5. WHY BN IS LIKELY TO WIN ? 6Factors: Gerrymandering, Malapportionment, Keep rural voters poor & isolated, Abuse of GOVT Machinery! 3-corner fights Power of incumbency.

  6. A. Gerrymandering: Put under N41 instead of N40!

  7. B. MALAPPORTIONMENT 112,224 voters 17 x Putrajaya Average seat: 49,199 voters 6,608 1.85 M votes is enough to win simple majority of Parliamentary Seats! 17% of total voter population ! Most large seats are PR red Most small seats are BN blue Credit to: Ng CN

  8. C. GEOGRAPHY: KEEP SMALL SEATS POOR & ISOLATED! Easy to threaten & bribe Mini break: Environmental Disaster! Kapit , Rejang River 2011 In politics, nothing happens by accident!

  9. D. ABUSE OF GOVT MACHINERY Use of Government machinery and control of social, business and information networks to suppress the people

  10. CONTROL UNIT – UMNO WAR MACHINE • ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE • ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR) • IMMIGRATION DEPT & NRD • INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB) • JAKIM/MUIS/JAIS • JUDICIARY • MACC • MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS (UTK) • POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH • RELA • ROS • JASA

  11. D. ABUSE OF GOVT MACHINERY

  12. E. 3-CORNER FIGHTS: BN WINS 96%! Their only objective is to divide-and-rule through 3-corner fights.

  13. F. POWER OF INCUMBENCY ! This is a natural phenomenon which occurs in all countries. Message: Why take risk? Choose the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t know. More experienced! Apathy of the electorate. Psychological warfare – greed & fear. Others….

  14. Point No. 1: BN is likely to win within the existing framework. Politics • Having said all that, things can change because of a tsunami ! • Then we have to make sure we : • Have enough Polling Agents, • Support BERSIH 3.0 on electoral reform ! If not,,,,,

  15. BREAK 1Play RumahNyawin(6min 20s) Not a clear-cut case. Govt’s argument is that these are squatters on State land. But the Govt should give due consideration for natives who are landless.

  16. Economics Social Politics THE RAT RACE SYSTEM

  17. 2. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PEOPLE ARE FRUSTRATED AND FED-UP? They start looking for alternatives!

  18. CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry and angry, they believe they have nothing left to lose ! Social ARAB SPRING TUNISIA Do we want this????

  19. EGYPT Social Or this????

  20. Social Or this????

  21. Greeceeconomy reaches crisis point Social This????

  22. Social UK shaken by riots & civil disorder Or this????

  23. Economics Social Politics THE RAT RACE SYSTEM A More Certain Solution !

  24. 3. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK WILL WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013 ??

  25. TOTAL DEBT INCLUDING GLC’s:DATA SOURCES BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon GLC’s: Annual Accounts DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to uncertainty of some figures in the Treasury Report. GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak

  26. NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s USD Million GLC: Govt-linked cos USD 19.5 Billion

  27. DOMESTIC DEBT: USD 136 B 31st Dec Jun 2011: USD 136 Billion. Debt/GDP 57%. Domestic debt already EXCEED National Debt Limit of 55% to GDP !

  28. Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon 24 Feb 2012 Govt-linked Bonds USD 191.5 B Click - Why are Govt-linked bonds important? Note: Foreigners own 34.2% of MGS according to Phillip Capital Management. If there is a sell-down, the RM and stock market can be hurt.

  29. Malaysia Gross Debt/GDP: 158% Greece 134 EU Limit: 75% Are we in trouble ? Ireland 96%

  30. Debt/GDP: 158% 10/03/12: Add US 2 B for civil service pay hikes National Debt Limit: USD 131B (55%) (1) (1) National limit :1983 Government Funding Act and the 1959 Loan (Local) Act

  31. Debt/GDP: 158% When Govtdebt to GDP reaches 100%, it will squeeze out private-sector activity – Sovereign Man. Money running way. More than RM 1 Trillion left the country? Global Financial Integrity

  32. TOTAL DEBT – USD 378 B WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?

  33. CAN IT GET WORSE? Debt/GDP: 158%, annual deficit: 4 – 5% Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income. How can the Govt afford to give out RM 500 per head? What’s it coming from?

  34. WHAT IS NAJIB DOING ?

  35. HE ONLY KNOWS HOW TO SPEND OUR MONEY ! RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 M students: RM 260 M, One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 M students: RM 530 M. RM 500 for 3.4 M households: RM 1.8 B, Civil servants increment 7% - 13%, RM 1.69B to FELDA settlers instead of reducing the EPF’s loan of RM 6.5B to FELDA ! After GE 13, BN will get it back through GST ! Anil Netto: Atimes

  36. FAILURE OF EDUCATION SYSTEM Source: Anil Netto: 90% of unemployed are Malays! Where are they? Hiding in government or GLC’s Given student loans which they cannot afford to pay. It’s like a sword over their heads. Watch Video: College Conspiracy

  37. 100,000 UNEMPLOYABLE GRADS. HIDING THEM IN GOVT/GLC’s! 1.4 M Civil Servants, 3 x Regional Average! Are they growing by 100k/yr? Is this sustainable? Problems: Low productivity, Poor work attitude, Corrupt, Entitlement-mentality. PM’s dept: 43,554 staff, budget RM 4 billion! Will a change of govt solve these problems? Malaysia: 5% of population Average 1.7% population

  38. BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT ! • We have oil palm! • We have oil & gas! • We have electronics & electricals! • We have high savings rate – EPF! Are we different?

  39. In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to sell off his sugar monopoly to some “businessmen”. What happened after that? • Robert Kuok invested in the world’s largest sugar mill in Australia. • Our international sugar price went up.

  40. SUGAR PRICE Why ? World price dropped but domestic price went up by 40%! International sugar price goes down

  41. Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm import from Malaysia but no deal. • Why? • Robert Kuok’s Arowana Cooking Oil controls 40% of China domestic oil palm refining • Then Robert Kuok decided to invest • USD 10B in Indonesia oil palm. • That’s our lowest-cost competitor! • Will it hurt us? Blowback from grab of Robert Kuok’s sugar business in Malaysia (click to see link)

  42. BUT WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS. • We become net importer by 2014, 2015! • Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas. • Petronas tried to stop the outflow. • So previous CEO forced out & replaced with Najib nominee. • Ex-CEO now working for Singapore.

  43. WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS? • This depends on foreign countries. • Europe is in serious trouble. So’s the US.

  44. Even China is having a housing bubble and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe), she will import less from Malaysia. • Outlook does not look good.

  45. NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA ! Property crashing - Chinese ghost town: http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-Empty-Feeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities Click link for more

  46. OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US ! • Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece. • So they tap into EPF for cheap funding. • By now 60% is gone! • That’s our retirement savings! Don’t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they get into trouble. http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in-Trouble2.pdf

  47. MORE BYES BYES! They are taking RM 1.5 billion from EPF to lend to unqualified borrowers! That’s a Govt responsibility, not EPF’s!

  48. IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT • Greece outlook: Look at Greece’s situation • Expulsion from EU, • New currency with massive devaluation, • Job loss, • Drop in wages, • Sale of state assets, • Cost-cutting – pensions, subsidies, civil service, welfare aid, govt services,

  49. LOCAL IMPLICATIONS • Petronas, banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds, • Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest, http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/civil-servants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/ Restructuring and down-sizing Govt, slash pensions, subsidies, govt services.

  50. DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW? Global Financial Integrity (GFI) reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1.08 trillion) from year 2000 – 2009. 5th largest in the world! RM 39,000/person! Highest in the world per capita ! http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/4149-Finance-Malaysia-rises-in-illegal-money-chart-RM150b-lost-in-2009?p=11519#post11519

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