Vicealmirante ( r ) Luis Giampietri Rojas

1. “EL NIÑO” PHENOMENON 1997-1998 Vice-Admiral Luis Giampietri Rojas APEC 2008 High-Level Commission Chairman Vicealmirante ( r ) Luis Giampietri Rojas

2. “EL NIÑO” PHENOMENON IS A RECURRING EVENT

3. IN SITU MEASUREMENTS SEA LEVEL LIFE RESOURCES DIRECTION OF CURRENTS SST (°C) ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE WINDS

4. Macro-Scale Evaluation of “El Niño” Phenomenon • Sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific Ocean • South Oscillation Index • Intensity of Surface Winds • Thermal Anomalies of the Pacific Tropical • Deepness of the 20ºC Isotherm • Other Atmospheric and Oceanic Indexes

5. “EL NIÑO” PHENOMENON Macro-Scale Climatic Alteration Planet-Level: 3 Oceans: Pacific, Atlantic and Indian, and 4 Continents: America, Asia, Oceania and Europe

6. MARINE TIDES The Ocean tides are responsible for redistribution of heat on earth, and hence are called “the weather-regulating machine”.

7. TOGA PROJECT 1985 - 1995 TROPICAL OCEAN - GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE • OBJECTIVES: • DETERMINE THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE • CLIMATE ON THE MONTH-TO-YEARS SCALE. • STUDY THE POSSIBILITY OF MODELING THE • OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM TO PREDICT • ITS VARIABILITY • DESIGN AN OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEM ALLOWING • FOR OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS IF THE SYSTEMS • SHOWS BEING PREDICTABLE

8. OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC Prediction Follow-Up Oceanographic buoys Drifting buoy Meteorological stations Opportunity ships

10. SOUTH-EAST PACIFIC CURRENT SYSTEMS SISTEMAS DE CORRIENTES DEL PACIFICO SUDORIENTAL SOUTH-EAST PACIFIC CURRENT SYSTEMS SISTEMAS DE CORRIENTES DEL PACIFICO CONDITION : “EL NIÑO” CONDICION : “EL NIÑO” CONDICION : NORMAL CONDITION : NORMAL A. TROPICAL A. TROPICAL A. EQUATORIAL SUPERFICIAL A. EQUATORIAL SUPERFICIAL SUPERFICIAL SUPERFICIAL A. SUBTROPICAL A. SUBTROPICAL SUPERFICIAL SUPERFICIAL MIXTURE WATER MIXTURE WATER SUB-ANTARTIC WATERS SUB-ANTARTIC WATERS SISTEMAS DE CORRIENTES DEL PACIFICO SOUTH EAST PACIFIC CURRENT SYSTEMS CONDITION : “LA NIÑA” CONDICION : “LA NIÑA” A. TROPICAL A. EQUATORIAL SUPERFICIAL SUPERFICIAL A. SUBTROPICAL SUPERFICIAL MIXTURE WATER SUB-ANTARTIC WATERS

11. “Normal conditions” Strong surface winds Normal conditions South America Strong Peruvian Current

12. Surface Winds West East Indonesia Peru Pacific Ocean NORMAL CONDITIONS Air Bathtub

14. West East Indonesia Peru CURRENT Pacific Ocean Increase of sea level DURING EL NIÑO Bathtub CURRENT

15. 1. LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION 3. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OCEAN CURRENTS 2. OCEAN SURFACE WINDS 5. MIXED LAYER / THERMOCLINE

16. “El Niño” Conditions Weak surface winds South America Invasion of warm waters

17. South America South America “Normal conditions” “El Niño conditions” 22oC 30oC

18. “Normal conditions” “El Niño evolution” “El Niño conditions” 4 months

19. 28 25 20 28 25 20 TRANSGRESSION OF SURFACE EQUATORIAL WATERS March 1997 April 1997

20. TRANSGRESSION OF SURFACE EQUATORIAL WATERS May 1997 June 1997

21. FORECAST of SST Anomaly ANOMALY of SST OBSERVED NOVEMBER 1997 NOVEMBER 1997 DECEMBER 1997 DECEMBER 1997 JANUARY 1998 JANUARY 1998 FEBRUARY 1998 FEBRUARY 1998 MARCH 1998 MARCH 1998

22. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1. Strong rains due to high SST 2. Large withdrawal of sediment into the rivers 3. Accumulation of sediments into the continental platform 4. Outcropping of sediments into the photic zone.

23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Long-term effects on Peruvian Fishery • Sea fertilization • More productivity • Larger fishing stock

24. Present Climatic Conditions and Perspectives for the following months

25. Conditions of the Tropical Central Pacific Ocean

26. SURFACE VIEW OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC The Tropical Central Pacific Ocean is cold, so there are no favorable conditions for “El Niño” phenomenon, which requires a “warm pool” in this area CUTTING VIEW OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

27. SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURE EL NIÑO REGIONS In NIÑO region 3.4, where el Niño is “incubated”, there are near normal conditions In the Peruvian Coast Region, NIÑO 1+2, warm conditions have allowed a formalization with very small positive anomalies, of 0.5 degrees

28. THE PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS EVOLVED TO ITS AVERAGE CONDITIONS, COLD IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND WARM IN THE WEST PACIFIC

29. GLOBAL FORECAST (NOAA) CLIMATIC NEWSLETTER dated 7 August 2008 “EL NIÑO”- SOUTH OSCILATION (ENOS) / “LA NIÑA” CURRENT GLOBAL DIAGNOSTIC: Climatic Newsletter of the CLIMATIC PREDICTIONS CENTER-NOAA -USA dated 7 August 2008 Summary: The heat content of the Pacific Ocean shows a low probability of the development of El Niño by the end of this year. Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, recent trends, and forecasts of the models, ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue until the Fall of 2008 in the Northern Hemisphere (Spring of the South Hemisphere).

30. Conditions in the Tropical Central Pacific Ocean

31. Sea Surface Temperature Conditions in the Tropical Central Pacific Ocean

32. International Center for the Research on El Niño Phenomenon CIIFEN August 2008 Newsletter “Conditions in the East Pacific are near normal” REGIONAL FORECAST – CIIFEN Conditions Observed as of August 1st, 2008 In general, the Equatorial Pacific region keeps a sea temperature of around 1.5°C under the average. This conditions have persisted during the last 5 months, however, based on its evolution, it seems to tend to get normal.

33. Anomalies on the SST ASST July 2008 Conditions in the Peruvian Coast

34. MULTISECTORIAL COMMITTEE IN CHARGE OF THE NATIONAL STUDY OF EL NIÑO PHENOMENON (ENFEN) OFFICIAL COMMUNICATION LOCAL FORECAST - PERU The ocean and atmospheric variables in the East-Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Northern Coast of Peru continue displaying local warm conditions. By the end of the month, ocean warm waters fell back, in front of the Northern Coast of Peru. So, according to the evolution of variables observed at a macro scale and locally, a trend to have a normal condition is expected in the Peruvian Coast for the following two months.

35. GENERAL CONCLUSION Global, Regional and local climatic conditions show that the Tropical Pacific Ocean in under a process of returning to its normal conditions after la Niña that occurred in 2007 and the local warming in Northern Peru during the first semester of the year.

36. Monthly summary of current conditions of El Niño, La Niña and the South Oscillation – ENSO Neutral conditions are observed in the Tropical Pacific. By mid August, the SST is almost near +0.5°C above average in most of the Equatorial Pacific, and it is approximately +1°C above the average near the date line. As a consequence, there seems to be a tendency to a warming of the Equatorial Pacific during the last two months; however, it is still uncertain if those temperatures will produce a warming that may reach the level of an event of El Niño in the following months (coming seasons). Based on the most recent observations and forecasts, there is 60% of likelihood that neutral conditions will continue during the months of July - August - September - October 2006.

37. EL NIÑO RISK-MANAGEMENT PROGRAM

38. Impacts The two previous episodes of El Niño that took place in 1982-83 and 1997-98 have brought considerable economic loss and a huge social impact to the country.Peru has losses for more than 3.500 million dollars, which represent more than 4,5% of the GDP of 1997. The loss of national wealth represents more than 21% of the gross capital accumulation of one year and the total damages represent 1.7 times the direct foreign investment that the country received in 1997.

39. Facts Although its damaging effects and its periodic appearance, we have observed that: • There are no permanent policies to reduce the vulnerability towards natural disasters such as El Niño. • Risk prevention has not been incorporated as part of the development management. • Institutions that study and monitor these risks need to improve their technological capacity, their coordination levels and establishing a adequate link to development institutions and civil defense.

40. Facts • There is awareness about the existence of El Niño as a dangerous event for the country and that given the existing vulnerability, new losses could happen in the future, affecting the GDP and representing a large investment by the government in attending the disasters produced and rebuilding the affected areas. • The government understands that El Niño may become an economic shock, risking development lines, withdrawing investments, and so reducing competitiveness of the country.

41. PROGRAM MONITORING TECHNICAL STUDIES El Niño Risk Management Program • Sustainable cities • Risk studies • Hydrological modeling • Creation of micro-zones • El Niño exploitation • Monitoring and SAT • Support to ENFEN • Information to the Public • Planning • -Inventory and planning of works • Implementation • -Technical support to sectors and regions • -Supervision

42. Contact with Banks and Cooperating Institutions Objective Define the role of these institutions with the new El Niño Risk Management Program: • World Bank (Visit of Mission 14 - 18 August 2006). • Inter American Development Bank – IDB (local representative and video-conference with experts). • Andean Promotion Corporation – CAF (Visit of Mission, 1st week of September and immediate assignment of expert to discuss Technical Cooperation for the last quarter of 2006). • GTZ (Meeting with Risks expert resident in Peru).

43. Proposed Preparation ScheduleWorld Bank Example 8/06 9/06 10/06 2/07 9/07 1/08 Formalization of PROGRAM Inventory of Preparation of Signature and follow-up Signature of loan and (Supreme Decree) likely interventions Scope of Work of studies with Japanese Funds (PHRD) of PHRD studies Launching workshop Budget contribution and Process reviews of Preparation of Signature of inter-administrative Peru Creation of a base team - Safeguard Operations Manual agreements Launch of - Fiduciarios Official request to MEF • Inter-institutional • agreements Selection of works to be PHRD bidding Financed and bids Official request to the Bank Preparation of document Inclusion of the program into Review of Scope of Work Project evaluation Presentation to the Bank’s Japanese Grant (PHRD) the Country’s Assistance of studies with Japanese Funds (PHRD) . Component Board of Directors Strategy . Fiduciary processes BANK . Safeguard Preparation of Legal Agreement Emergency Project in the Event of El Niño

44. Immediate steps • Budget contribution and creation of a base team. • Official request to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). • Official request to Banks and Cooperating Institutions. • Preparation of documents requesting Technical Cooperation and Non-Refundable Loans (Example: CAF, World Bank – PHRD Japanese Grant, IDB, etc.).

45. In 2006, the Peruvian Government formalized, by means of Supreme Decree, the creation of the Vulnerabilities Reduction Program facing the Recurring Event of “El Niño”.

46. Frame-Law for the Modernization of the State ManagementLAW No. 27658 “Article 1.- Declare the State in a modernization process 1.1. Declare the Peruvian State in a process of modernization at its different levels, dependent offices, entities, organizations and procedures, in order to improve the public management and build a democratic State which is decentralized and ready to serve the citizens. (…) Article 5.- Main actions The State modernization process is based above all in the following actions: (…) d. Increased efficiency in the use of State resources, and hence, duplicity or over-lapping of competences, tasks, attributions is eliminated among officials and public servers.

47. FINAL CONCLUSION The is a need to have a strategy for the Asia-Pacific Region, which would help us act in a joint and articulated manner in the case of threats such as “El Niño” Phenomenon.

48. END OF PRESENTATION