Using Non-Customs Data in Compiling U.S. Trade Data.

1. Using Non-Customs Data in Compiling U.S. Trade Data.

2. UN Recommendations on Uses of Non-Customs Data Sources: • Current Recommendation: · Use if Customs records do not provide data or data is inadequate. •Future Recommendations: · Specific use of non-Customs sources and compilation strategies. ·  Address explicitly issues of valuation and time of recording.

3. The U.S. Experience with Using Non-Customs Data Sources: • • The US/Canada Data Exchange (A Unique Solution). • • Non-customs data uses related to the Data Exchange: • · Electricity flows. • · Natural Gas imports. • · Railcars imports (an interim solution). • • Estimation for low-valued transactions. • • Estimation of small parcel trade (a proposed future solution) • • Measurement of foreign military sales.

4. The US/Canada Data Exchange: • • Problems: • · In mid 1980’s negotiations on NAFTA plagued by data discrepancies. • · Reconciliation studies reveal significant undercount of each country’s export data.

5. The US/Canada Data Exchange: • • Solutions: • · 1987 Memorandum of Understanding on the Exchange of Import Data. • · US data measure southbound trade – Canadian data northbound. • · Exchange of data begins January 1990.

6. The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued): • • Alignment: • · Import data expanded to satisfy partner exports needs. • · Commodity classifications aligned. • · Data release dates/times aligned.

7. The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued) : • • Benefits: • · Disputes concerning data disappear. • · Exporters relieved of data submission burden. • · Customs and statistical agencies able to reallocate resources.

8. The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued): • • Current Status: • · Over 20 million records exchanged in 2007. • · Represents over $560 billion in two way trade. • · Savings in processing costs enormous.

9. Electricity Flows: • • Issues: • · US/Canada Data Exchange requires alignment. • · Electricity historically included in US national accounts as a service. • · Canada included electricity in merchandise trade data.

10. Electricity Flows (Continued): • • Changes: • · The US agrees to include electricity in merchandise trade data. • · The US begins using data supplied by Canada. • · In 2007 electricity transactions to and from Canada totaled $3.7 billion. • · Note: Electricity flows to and from Mexico continue to be included as services.

11. Natural Gas Imports: • • Issues: • · US Customs reports of natural gas imports from Canada incomplete. • · US import figures significantly understated when compared with independent Canadian exports.

12. Natural Gas Imports (Continued): • • Changes: • · In the early 1990’s Census begins using Canadian export data. • · In 2007 natural gas imports from Canada totaled $22.4 billion.

13. Canadian Railcars (An Interim Solution):  • • Issues: • · Change in legislation allows entry of railcars without documentation. • · Reported imports of railcars from Canada (chief US supplier) drop sharply. • · Canada establishes survey of manufactures to address under coverage in its export figures.

14. Canadian Railcars (An Interim Proposal): • • Interim Proposal: • · As an interim solution to the under coverage US proposes to use Canadian survey data. • · In the meantime, the US will work to restore import coverage. • · Imports of railcars from Canada estimated at over $500 million in 2007. • · Note: A similar problem may exist with Mexico but imports are minimal.

15. Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions:  • • Issues: • · US importers/exporters exempt from filing requirements for low-valued transactions. • · Source data disappears for low-valued transactions.

16. Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions (Continued): • • Solutions: • · Census develops estimating methodology. • · Estimating factors (ratios) applied by country. • · Factors updated as exemption levels increase and re-bench marked periodically.

17. Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal): • • Issues: • · Research shows estimated low-value trade understated. • · Last new data on low-valued transactions 20 years old. • · Census researchers look at various ways to address underestimate.

18. Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued): • • Courier Data: • · Research identifies small parcel shipments as significant part of low-value universe. • · Courier companies supply data that confirms research. • · Estimating methodology using courier data proposed.

19. Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued): • • Proposed Methodology: • · Divide universe of reported records into courier/non-courier segments. • · Continue to apply current factors to non-courier segment. • · Apply estimating factors derived from courier data to courier segment.

20. Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued): • • Expected Results: • · The export low-valued estimates would increase by about $ 4 billion a year. • · The import estimate (with some other methods changes) would increase by about $ 3 billion annually.

21. Foreign Military Sales: • • Issues: • · Goods are consigned to military services. • · Goods move through military facilities. • · Movements are outside customs jurisdiction.

22. Foreign Military Sales (Continued): • • Solutions: • · Monthly reports collected from military services. • · Data compiled from reports.

23. Conclusion: • • US successfully using Non-Customs Data Sources. • · US/Canada Data Exchange a prime example. • • US Policy on using Non-Customs Sources. • · As a policy US Census prefers to first work with Customs to address coverage issues.

24. Conclusion: • • US response to UN Questions. • · In response to UN questions we stated; “For the US, Customs data continue to be the preferred means of collecting quality and timely merchandise trade data”. • · We recommended that efforts first be made to improve the quality and coverage of Customs data before alternative methods are used.

25. Questions: • · Do you use non-customs source data in compiling your trade statistics programs? • · What have your experiences been in using these non-customs sources? • · What are your thoughts on the UN proposal concerning non-customs sources?