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The Federal Budget & Accountability

The Federal Budget & Accountability. Susan J. Irving AGA-DC Annual Conference May 8, 2007. Budget Measures. Budget Authority Outlays Surplus/Deficit On-budget, Off-budget, Unified. Roles. Statement of priorities Control Fiscal Policy Commitments for the future

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The Federal Budget & Accountability

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  1. The Federal Budget & Accountability Susan J. Irving AGA-DC Annual Conference May 8, 2007

  2. Budget Measures • Budget Authority • Outlays • Surplus/Deficit • On-budget, Off-budget, Unified

  3. Roles • Statement of priorities • Control • Fiscal Policy • Commitments for the future Remember budgeting and accounting are—and should be-- different

  4. Basis of Budgeting • Cash? Obligations? Accrual • Control or match between budget recognition & resource consumption? • Is it all or nothing?

  5. Surplus or Deficit as a Share of GDP Fiscal Years 1962-2006 Percent of GDP Source:Office of Management and Budget, Department of the Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office.

  6. Fiscal Year 2005 and 2006 Deficits and Net Operating Costs *Includes $173 billion in Social Security surpluses for fiscal year 2005 and $185 billion for fiscal year 2006; $2 billion in Postal Service surpluses for fiscal year 2005 and $1 billion for fiscal year 2006. Sources: The Office of Management and Budget and the Department of the Treasury.

  7. 10-year Budget Outlook Under Alternative Assumptions January 2007 Baseline Extend expiring tax provisions (excluding AMT fix) and discretionary spending grows with GDP Source: GAO analysis of data from CBO The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008-2017 (January 2007).

  8. Unified Surpluses and Deficits as a Share of GDP Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Simulations Baseline Extended Discretionary spending grows with the economy and all expiring tax provisions extended Note: Assume currently scheduled Social Security benefits are paid in full throughout the simulation period. Source: GAO’s January 2007 analysis.

  9. Potential Fiscal Outcomes Under Baseline Extended Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP Revenue Source: GAO’s January 2007 analysis. Notes: In addition to the expiration of tax cuts, revenue as a share of GDP increases through 2017 mainly due to (1) real bracket creep, (2) more taxpayers becoming subject to the AMT, and (3) increased revenue from tax-deferred retirement accounts. After 2017, revenue as a share of GDP is held constant—implicitly assuming that action is taken to offset increased revenue from real bracket creep, the AMT, and tax-deferred retirement accounts.

  10. Potential Fiscal Outcomes Under Alternative SimulationReal per Capita Discretionary Spending Remains Constant from 2007; Tax Provisions Extended Through 2017, and Revenue Returns to Historical Average of 18.3% of GDP Thereafter Revenue Source: GAO’s January 2007 analysis.

  11. Accountability For disclosure of full commitment over what time horizon? For results Stewardship

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