1 / 21

Building a Climate-Adaptive Portfolio for the Alaska/Yukon Arctic Coast Ecoregion

Building a Climate-Adaptive Portfolio for the Alaska/Yukon Arctic Coast Ecoregion. TNC Global Climate Change Initiative March 4, 2005. Building a Climate-Adaptive Portfolio for the Alaska/Yukon Arctic Coast Ecoregion. Outline conservation targets current environmental gradients

varian
Download Presentation

Building a Climate-Adaptive Portfolio for the Alaska/Yukon Arctic Coast Ecoregion

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Building a Climate-Adaptive Portfolio for the Alaska/Yukon Arctic Coast Ecoregion TNC Global Climate Change Initiative March 4, 2005

  2. Building a Climate-Adaptive Portfolio for the Alaska/Yukon Arctic Coast Ecoregion Outline • conservation targets • current environmental gradients • portfolio based on current costs and conditions • portfolio based on current and future conditions • portfolio based on current conditions and potential refugia • comparison among portfolios

  3. Conservation Targets: EcologicalLand Units [Heiner & Jorgensen]

  4. Capturing Current Environmental Gradients: 9 Ecoregion Sections [TNC-AK] 9 Ecoregion Sections [TNC-AK] (schematic)

  5. Current Cost of LandGiven CompetingTenure & Use [TNC-AK] Capturing Current Cost of LandGiven CompetingTenure & Use [TNC-AK] greatest cost greatest cost least cost least cost

  6. Best Portfolio Using Current Costs &Gradients [SPOT software] Out In

  7. Hex CellIrreplaceability Using Current Costs &Gradients [SPOT software] 1 20 25 Frequency of Occurrence in 25 Solutions

  8. 1 20 25 In Out Frequency of Occurrence in 25 Solutions Best Portfolio Best Portfolio & Hex CellIrreplaceability Using Current Costs &Gradients [SPOT software]

  9. Capturing Future Change Gradient Under Climate ChangeScenario A2 and HadCM3 Model (7 Classes) [Saxon, et. al, 2005] greatest change least change

  10. Best Portfolio Using Current Costs & Gradients and Future Change Gradient [SPOT software] Out In

  11. Hex CellIrreplaceability Using Current Costs & Gradients and Future Change Gradient [SPOT software] 1 20 25 Frequency of Occurrence in 25 Solutions

  12. 1 20 25 In Out Frequency of Occurrence in 25 Solutions Best Portfolio Best Portfolio & Hex CellIrreplaceability Using Current Costs & Gradients and Future Change Gradient [SPOT software]

  13. Current Cost of LandGiven CompetingTenure & Use [TNC-AK] Capturing Current Cost of LandGiven CompetingTenure & Use [TNC-AK] greatest cost greatest cost least cost least cost

  14. Current Cost of LandGiven CompetingTenure & Use [TNC-AK] Capturing EnvironmentalChange Under Climate ChangeScenario A2 and HadCM3 Model [Saxon, et. al, 2005] least change greatest change

  15. Current Cost of LandGiven CompetingTenure & Use [TNC-AK] Aggregate of Current Cost and EnvironmentalChange Under Climate ChangeScenario A2 and HadCM3 Model [Saxon, et. al, 2005] least cost greatest cost

  16. Best Portfolio Using Current Costs & Gradients and Areas with Least Change(Potential Refugia) [SPOT software] Out In

  17. Hex CellIrreplaceability Using Current Costs & Gradients and Areas with Least Change (Potential Refugia) [SPOT software] 1 20 25 Frequency of Occurrence in 25 Solutions

  18. 1 20 25 In Out Frequency of Occurrence in 25 Solutions Best Portfolio Best Portfolio & Hex CellIrreplaceability Using Current Costs & Gradients and Areas with Least Change (Potential Refugia) [SPOT software]

  19. Best Portfolio Using Current Costs & Gradients Best Portfolio Using Current Costs & Gradients and Future Change Gradient Best Portfolio Using Current Costs & Gradients and Areas with Least Change(Potential Refugia)

  20. Overlap AmongBest PortfoliosRepresenting Current ConditionsFuture Conditionsand PotentialRefugia represents current conditions and potential refugia represents current and future conditions represents current conditions only

  21. Conclusions: 1. The best portfolio for current conditions will not represent current biodiversity across future environmental conditions 2. Planners must choose between a portfolio that represents the range of future conditions or one favoring potential refugia 3. There are some, but not many, “no regrets” sites [black].

More Related