U.S. IOOS & the Ocean.US Modeling Initiative

1. U.S. IOOS&the Ocean.US Modeling Initiative • Background & the Mission of Ocean.US • IOOS Conceptual Design • Status of Implementation • Ocean.US Modeling Initiative NOAA Navy NSF EPA NASA USACE USGS USCG MMS DOE

2. GEOSS IEOS Welcome to the Acronym Jungle IOOS GOOS 2

3. 1998 Congress Called forIntegrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)Routinely Provide Data/Info Required for More Rapid Detection & Timely Prediction of State Changes • Improve the safety & efficiency of marine operations • Improve national/homeland security • Improve forecasts of natural hazards and mitigate their effects more effectively • Improve predictions of climate change & their effects • Minimize public health risks • Protect & restore healthy coastal marine & estuarineecosystems more effectively • Sustain living marine resources 1 System, 7 Societal Goals 3

4. 2004 U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy • Implement an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) • Make more effective use of existing resources • Enhance operational capabilities over time to address 7 societal goals • Ecosystem – Based Management • Strengthen Regional Approach • As a means of implementing ecosystem–based management 4

5. www.ocean.us Ocean.US The National Office for Integrated & Sustained Ocean Observations • Established in 2000 by NOPP to • Prepare & maintain IOOS Development Plans based on data requirements of user groups, • Coordinate integration of IOOS elements, including harmonizing regional & national development of the system, & • Function as the focal point for national & international development of ocean observing systems. • Ocean.US Leadership • Current Director: Mary Altalo (1 January, 2006) • Past Directors: David Martin, Eric Lindstrom, Tom Malone 5

6. “Airlie House” WorkshopMarch 2002 • IOOS Design Principles • Priority Products & Services for each of the 7 Societal Goals • IOOS Conceptual Design • Began Process of • Specifying observing system requirements • DMAC the Highest Priority • Estimated New Funding for Implementation • $138 M Yr 1 • $500 M Yr 5 6

7. IOOS Design Principles • Provide data & information needed to address all 7 societal goals by implementing & sustaining an IOOS that is • Responsive to the needs of decision makers, • End – to – End • Multi–scale, Multidisciplinary & Multipurpose • Serve data & information at rates & in forms required by decision makers in each of the 7 societal benefit areas. • Make more effective use of existing assets to • Efficiently link observations & modeling through • Integrated data management & communications • Build on, improve & enhance existing capabilities over time • Enable users from both private & public sectors to contribute to & benefit from IOOS data & information • Adopt & implement national standards & protocols for • Measurements & data telemetry, • Data management & communications, & • Modeling & analysis • Implement performance measures for all of the above 7

8. IOOS is an “End–to–End” System Efficiently Link 3 Subsystems Decision Support Tools Climate Metadata standards Data discovery Data transport Online browse Data archival Currents & Waves Water level Coastal inundation Waterborne pathogens Population Dynamics Ecosystem Dynamics Satellites Natural Hazards Aircraft Marine Services Fixed Platforms Ships Security Drifters & Floats Public Health Ecosystem Health AUVs Resources Observing – Data Telemetry Integrated DMAC Modeling Analysis 8

9. Observing & Data Telemetry SubsystemMulti–Scale System Global Ocean Component Coastal Ocean Component GLs Ak NE NW MAB Regional Observing Systems SE Pac C Cal Go Mex S Cal Caribb National Backbone Low Resolution High 9

10. Coastal Component ofthe IOOS National Backbone • Operated by • NOPP Agencies • RAs • EEZ & Great Lakes • Core variables • Required by regions • Networks • Sentinel stations • Reference stations • Standards/Protocols • QAQC, DMAC • Products Regional COOS’s • Based on data & info • requirements of users • Regional Associations • Design & Manage •  Resolution •  Variables • Estuaries, Great Lakes, • EEZ • Incorporate • Subregional systems • Elements thereof

11. First Development Plan Completed by Ocean.US December 2004 Approved at Cabinet level by the Interagency Committee on Ocean Science & Resource Management (ICOSRMI) January 2006 www.ocean.us 11

12. DMAC Plan • Completed & Approved in 2005 • Provides a Road Map for Implementing Interoperable Mechanisms that Enable • Rapid access to diverse data • From many sources • With the completion of the DMAC plan, Ocean.US is turning its attention to • The Modeling & Analysis Subsystem 12

13. The 1st IOOS Development Plan calls for a modeling effort that will • Improve, develop, test & validate operational models for all seven societal goals; • Produce more accurate & comprehensive estimates of current states of the marine environment, ecosystems & living resources; • Improve, develop & apply data assimilation techniques to initialize & update models for more accurate forecasts of state changes; & • Optimize the observing subsystem to achieve these objectives The broad objective is to tune the delivery of model-derived products to the time-space scales on which decisions need to be made to achieve the societal goals. 13

14. Next steps • Promote synergy • between research & operational modeling activities • Promote improvements • in existing operational models • Enable development of operational modeling capabilities • in goal areas where none now exist • Engage Federal Agencies, RAs & other stakeholders • in the design & implementation of the modeling & analysis subsystem of IOOS • Establish a Modeling & Analysis Steering Team (MAST) to Address these Objecives 14

15. Climate & Marine Meteorology Michele Reinecker (NASA) Steve Payne (Navy) Fred Toepfer (NOAA) Coastal Circulation, Inundation & Waves Frank Bub (Navy) Dale Crockett (TX WDB) Eoin Howlett (ASA) Richard Luettich (UNC) John Harding (Navy) Watershed Hydrology Richard Alexander (USGS) Biogeochemistry Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton) Ecosystem Dynamics Fisheries & Water Quality Carl Cerco (USACE) John Wilkin (Rutgers) Eileen Hofmann (ODU) Anne Hollowed (NOAA) MAST MembersChairman: Chris MooersCo – Chairs: C.J. Beegle – Krause & Frank Aikman 15

16. Mission of MAST Prepare a 5 – Year Strategic Plan with a Prioritized Action Plan & Budget to Achieve The Following Objectives: • Enhance collaboration between operational & research modeling groups • Establish & maintain an inventory of operational & research modeling capabilities relevant to addressing the 7 societal benefits • Assess performance & skill of existing & emerging operational capabilities in terms of user needs & recommend improvement • Develop community consensus for a research agenda that will help improve operational modeling capabilities • Facilitate transitions of models & model improvements from research to operational use • Assess & recommend improvements to the observing & DMAC subsystems through the use of test beds & OSSEs/OSEs • Explore the use & efficacy of Community Modeling Networks as a mechanism for achieving these objectives • Work with the NOPP, Federal Agencies & other groups as appropriate to attract the required funding 16

17. IOOS Community Modeling Workshop28 – 29 November 2006 • Objectives • Review present status of operational global & coastal models • Identify R&D needed to advance operational modeling for all 7 societal goals • Provide guidance for preparing the MAST Strategic Plan • Provide guidance for the MAST CY 07 Action Plan • Deliverables • Annotated outline of the MAST Strategic Plan • Recommend short– & long–term priorities for MAST activities • Workshop Proceedings 17

18. RCOOS/ORION Science and Technology Workshop 2007 • Organizing Committee • Physical Oceanography, Chris Mooers/RSMAS (SEACOOS/MAST) • Marine Biogeochemistry, Rick Jahnke/SKIO (SEACOOS/ORION) • Marine Ecology, Mark Moline/CalPoly (CENCOOS & SCCOOS/ALPS) • Issues • Developing the network of sustained observations needed to meet data requirements of models for all 7 societal goals • Building scientifically sound operational IOOS capabilities • Participants • 3 experts from each RA • Coastal physical oceanographer or meteorologist, biogeochemist, & marine ecologis • Representatives from DMAC, MAST & ORION • Tentative Objectives: Consensus on • The scientific questions that need to be answered to enable credible & periodic estimates of the State of the Coastal Ocean regionally? • The critical missing observational & modeling capabilities & priorities for filling them? • How RAs/RCOOSs & ORION/OOI can best collaborate to enable synergy between IOOS & major ocean research programs 18

19. THANK YOU

20. Societal Goals & Example Products Used to Determine Observing System Requirements • Climate Prediction • Annual estimates of regional–global sea level changes w/ error bars • Annual quantitative assessments of the impact of global warming on the frequency & magnitude of tropical & extra–tropical stomrs • Maritime Operations & National/Homeland Security • Hourly mesoscale nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of water levels & 3–D current, temperature & salinity fields • Hourly mesoscale nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of sea surface vector wind & wave fields & surf conditions • Natural Hazards • Hourly 72 hr forecasts of the time–space extent of coastal flooding caused by tsunamis, tropical storms & extratropical storms • Annual assessments of changes in resilience of coastal populations & infrastructure to coastal flooding • Public Health • Hourly nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of plumes from large permitted dischargers • Hourly 72 hr forecasts of impacts of HABs on coastal habitats, living marine resources & human health • Ecosystem Health • Annual quantitative assessments of the condition of coastal ecosystems in terms of (i) habitat & species diversity; (ii) water quality; & (iii) near shore bathymetry–topography • Annual assessments of the effects of global warming on the condition of coastal ecosystems as quantified above • Living Marine Resources • Annual estimates of recruitment rates for exploitable fish stocks w/ error bars • Annual assessments of the efficacy of Marine Protected Areas in terms of the extent & condition of habitats & the abundance & distribution of living resources 20

21. Existing Operational Capabilities Operational Status High Operational Capabilities Marine Weather Marine Ops Hurricanes Public Health Water Quality Ecosystem – Based Management Investments in R & D Operational Status Low 21

22. IOOS Data & Information Analysis & Modeling Informed Decisions DMAC Coordinated Development of an Integrated System Observations & Data Telemetry 7 IOOS Societal Goals Design of an End– to– End System Enable Science Improve Operational Capabilities Research & Development Research Priorities Users Requirements Ocean.US & RAa Plan & Coordinate Federal Agencies & RAs Implement 22

23. President’s Ocean Action Plan Committee on Ocean Policy Chair CEQ (Cabinet Level) Interagency Committee on Ocean Science & Resource Management Integration (ICOSRMI) Co-Chairs: OSTP & CEQ ORRAP NSC PCC Global Environment JSOST SIMOR IWGOO NFRA Ocean.US 23

24. Observing Requirements: Remote Sensing • Sustain & Improve Satellite Time-Series • Surface winds, temperature, waves, currents • Sea surface height • Ocean color

25. ~ 50 % Implemented Global Coastal