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Journalism 614: Public Opinion and Policy Making

Journalism 614: Public Opinion and Policy Making. Changes in Global Warming Opinion. Same-Sex Marriage Opinion by Party ID. Gun Ownership and Geography. Opinion and Policy. What influence do these indicators of public opinion have on public policy?

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Journalism 614: Public Opinion and Policy Making

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  1. Journalism 614:Public Opinion and Policy Making

  2. Changes in Global Warming Opinion

  3. Same-Sex Marriage Opinion by Party ID

  4. Gun Ownership and Geography

  5. Opinion and Policy • What influence do these indicators of public opinion have on public policy? • Are our elites responsive to public opinion? • Do special interests have a greater influence over policy making than public opinion? • Under what conditions do governments act in accordance with mass opinion?

  6. Policy Responsiveness • “Open interplay of opinion and policy is the distinguishing mark of popular rule” - H. Lasswell • A normative view of democracy • Concerns the way things should be • Conversely, “Democratic government only amounts to a hoax, a ritual whose performance serves only to delude the people and thereby to convert them into willing subjects of the powers that be -- V.O. Key

  7. Various Possibilities • Public opinion constrains public policy • Public opinion exerts strong influence to direct or redirect government policy • Public opinion ignored in policy making • Public opinion is molded by elites into alignment with preferred policies

  8. Opinion as Policy Influence • Foreign policy • Iran-Contra Affair - Growing Awareness • Vietnam War - Public Call for Withdrawal • China in UN - Public Opposition Eroded • Domestic Policy • Roe v. Wade - Growing support for abortion • Civil Rights Act - Calls for desegregation • Capital Punishment - Legalized, again but…

  9. Opinion Ignored, Sometimes • Reduce Foreign Aid • Cut Back on Space Program • Support School Prayer • Support More Stringent Gun Control • Often the influence of strong lobbying groups • Often in response to international threats

  10. Responsiveness Heightened When… • Elected officials more responsive near elections - often through party influence • Elected officials who view themselves as “delegates” — not “politicos” — respond • Elected officials respond to interest groups that reflect the views of public groups • Aggregate and articulate: Democratic pluralism • Elected officials respond to dominant elites

  11. Evidence of Responsiveness • Monroe - studied 222 cases of consistency or inconsistency between government policy and majority public opinion • 64% of the cases were consistent • 28% of the cases, public wanted change, government stayed with the status quo • 8% of the cases, public wanted status quo, government adopted a change of policy

  12. Examining Response to Change • Page and Shapiro - Do changes in opinion produce changes in policy? • Policy congruent with opinion 66% of time • The larger the shift in the opinion the more responsive government was to opinion

  13. Localized Responsiveness • Vietnam and Troop Withdrawals • Defense Spending • Respond to aggregated national opinion • Roll Call Voting - Community Focused • Miller and Stokes find that elected officials are responsive to the opinions of constituents • Greater for highly salient issues - e.g., Race

  14. Ideological Responsiveness • Respond to ideological climate — public mood — not specific policy preferences • The notion of “public sentiment” • Sense of support for an ideology • Used as basis for range of policies • Long-term responsiveness of ideological mood to public policy change • Stimson, MacKuen, & Erikson

  15. Portrait of Responsiveness? • Do we have democratic decision-making through the influence of mass opinion? • If policies don’t reflect view of majority or growing minority, who do they support? • Is the government responsive or do they move opinion in advance of policy change? • How is opinion manufactured to support certain perspectives?

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