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Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2006 Year In Review

Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2006 Year In Review. Edward Fukada Technical Adviser, JTWC. OVERVIEW. Mission / JTWC Origin Area of Responsibility Satellite Recon 2006 vs Climatology Storm Tracks Statistics Coming in 2007 Challenges Questions. MISSION.

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Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2006 Year In Review

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  1. Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2006 Year In Review Edward Fukada Technical Adviser, JTWC

  2. OVERVIEW • Mission / JTWC Origin • Area of Responsibility • Satellite Recon • 2006 vs Climatology • Storm Tracks • Statistics • Coming in 2007 • Challenges • Questions

  3. MISSION Provide tropical cyclone forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

  4. ORIGIN • Established 1959 to protect DoD assets • USPACOM Instruction 3140.1 defines requirements to monitor and warn • Jointly manned with 20 military and civilian positions • Air Force provides reconnaissance and forecasters • Navy provides facility, equipment, and forecasters

  5. JTWC AOR Tokyo CPHC NHC New Delhi 33% 17% 8% Reunion Australia Fiji 13% 11% 7%

  6. SHEM Multiple Cyclones

  7. Dept of Navy Installations Yokosuka Sasebo Guam Pearl Harbor Diego Garcia Ships at sea Dept of Air Force Installations Kadena Andersen Yokota/Misawa Osan/Kunsan Hickam Enroute aircraft Dept of Army Installations Korea Japan Hawaii Marine Corp Installations Futenma Iwakuni Kaneohe Expeditionary forces Dept of Commerce WFO Tiyan Micronesia public forecasts WFO Honolulu American Samoa Coordinated forecasts NHC CPHC Customers

  8. 2910 279 8738 199 130 1767 95 1092 57 52 7 2006 FIXES BY AGENCY Total Satellite Fixes = 15,326

  9. 2006 Tropical Cyclones vs Climatology Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2002: 5 2003: 3 2004: 5 2005: 7 2006: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NW Pacific 2002: 31 2003: 27 2004: 32 2005: 25 2006: 26 25 Yr avg: 31 C Pacific 2002: 5 2003: 2 2004: 2 2005: 1 2006: 4 25 Yr avg: 5 NE Pacific 2002: 16 2003: 16 2004: 16 2005: 16 2006: 21 25 Yr avg: 19 CPHC NHC South Pacific 2002: 4 2003: 9 2004: 2 2005: 6 2006: 4 25 Yr avg: 6 S Indian Ocean & Australia Region 2002: 21 2003: 20 2004: 25 2005: 20 2006: 19 25 Yr avg: 23

  10. 2006 STORM TRACKS

  11. 2006 WESTPAC TRACKS

  12. WESTPAC TRACK ERRORS

  13. WESTPAC TRACK ERRORS Experimental Officially Implemented

  14. CROSS TRACK VS ALONG TRACK ERRORS CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK

  15. WESTPAC INTENSITY ERRORS

  16. NEW IN 2006 • Wind Probability Products Available • 3-hourly Updated Position Fully Operational • Advanced Dvorak Technique Evaluation • JTWC Ops Officer & Director • 5 Military TDOs • Civilianization • 1 TDO – Former AF TDO • 1 Techniques Development Specialist

  17. COMING IN 2007 • Reconnaissance • Civilianization – 1 Satellite Analyst (3FY07) • High Resolution Digital MTSAT • Increased Re-emphasis on Polar Orbiting Data • MARK IVB Termination (May) • Along Track Error Evaluation • New JTOPS • COOP -- aka: AJTWC & ASATOPS • Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) Changes • THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) planning/participation

  18. CHALLENGES • AF Manning • Mil-to-Civ Conversions • PBD-720 Cuts – Lose 2 Analysts in FY09 • Reconnaissance • AFWA/XOGM & NESDIS/SAB Changes • MARK IVB Termination May 07 • Follow-on software being evaluated

  19. QUESTIONS ??????

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