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EU-Belarus Relations: Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks

EU-Belarus Relations: Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks. Mitchell A Orenstein Johns Hopkins University SAIS. Dictatorship in the Heart of Europe. How does Europe deal with a dictatorship in the heart of Europe? Belarus has not progressed towards democracy, market reform, membership in EU

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EU-Belarus Relations: Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks

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  1. EU-Belarus Relations:Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks Mitchell A Orenstein Johns Hopkins University SAIS

  2. Dictatorship in the Heart of Europe • How does Europe deal with a dictatorship in the heart of Europe? • Belarus has not progressed towards democracy, market reform, membership in EU • Challenges vision of Europe whole and free • Especially when the EU will not use the carrot of conditionality? • EU policy defined by what it is not able to do

  3. Argument • Short on Carrots • Carrot of membership is off the table • EU tries to come up with other carrots • Short on Sticks • EU has imposed sanctions • Has few other tools • Problem Remains

  4. The Carrot of Membership • Membership conditionality has been EU’s number one tool • Influenced Central and Eastern Europe • Influenced the Balkans • No agreement on offering membership to non-Baltic former Soviet states • Europe beset by enlargement fatigue • Membership conditionality is out

  5. Let’s Find Some New Carrots?

  6. Berlusconi Visit to Belarus

  7. Lukashenko at Vatican

  8. New Carrots? • Recognition • Lukashenko Visits Vatican, April 2009 • Berlusconi Visits Belarus, December 2009 • Grybauskaite Visits Belarus, October 2010 • Money • IMF Loan to Belarus, $3.6bn, January 2009 • EBRD Strategy for Belarus, December 2009 • EU promises $4bn, November 2010 • With Political Conditionality

  9. Charm Offensive Ends

  10. After December 19th, 2010 • EU and US impose travel bans on top officials • Belarus currency collapses, May 2011 • Needs infusion of cash • Negotiates with Russians, Chinese, Iranians, IMF • Voices in EU urge new carrots • Bulgarian Foreign Minister Mladenov letter • Polish Prime Minister Tusk • Belarus cancels participation in European Partnership Summit, supports Eurasian Union

  11. Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks • EU cannot foster political change in Belarus • Without carrot of EU membership, relationship with Russia is more important • Sticks are symbolic, but not effective • More effective stick might be a ban on oil and gas imports from Belarus • EU continue to sway between engagement and isolation

  12. Policy Options • Strengthen Sanctions • Engagement • Bail Out Economy • Watch and Wait

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