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Economic Update for Upstate New York

Economic Update for Upstate New York. Richard Deitz Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch richard.deitz@ny.frb.org March 12, 2003. Upstate Job Growth: On Par with Weak US Performance. Employment Index: 2000 = 100. US. Upstate.

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Economic Update for Upstate New York

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  1. Economic Update for Upstate New York Richard Deitz Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch richard.deitz@ny.frb.org March 12, 2003

  2. Upstate Job Growth: On Par with Weak US Performance Employment Index: 2000 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Department of Labor

  3. Upstate Job Growth By Sector in 2002 Compared to the US; bubble size indicates relative size of industry in the region Upstate Growth Rate Finance Construction Gov’t Utilities/Comm US Growth Rate Services Trade Manufacturing Source: US Dept of Labor

  4. Total Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment net percent Buffalo -6,358 -1.1% -1.9% Rochester -10,525 Albany +5,500 +1.2% Syracuse -1,325 -0.4% Utica -1,850 -1.4% Binghamton -2,533 -2.1% US -0.7% Job Growth in Upstate Metros: 2000-2002

  5. Average Job Loss in Postwar RecessionsLocal area Peak through Trough Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  6. Job Loss in This RecessionLocal area Peak through Local Trough The least diverse economies suffering the biggest losses Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  7. Rochester & Binghamton: Least Diverse Industry Mix Industrial Diversity Index: 1997 Index Source: Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, author’s calculations

  8. Job Growth: 1990s Expansion vs Recessionrankings of the largest 100 metro areas Las Vegas 1 8 Austin 2 61 Phoenix 3 69 Orlando 4 57 Atlanta 5 93 West Palm Beach 6 15 Tampa 7 36 Dallas 8 72 Salt Lake City 9 85 Sarasota 10 16 1990-2001 3/01 - 12/02 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  9. Key Local IndustriesNational employment declines • Buffalo: rank #48 • Autos - 7% • Fabricated metal products - 8% • Rochester: rank #77 • Instruments - 7% • Seattle: rank #98 • Aircraft - 16% • San Jose: rank #100 • Communications equipment - 9% • Electronic components - 25% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  10. Manufacturing current recession compared to the last recession

  11. Manufacturing Job Losses Index US Loss: 1990 Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  12. Manufacturing Job Losses Index US Loss: Current US Loss: 1990 Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

  13. Upstate Losing its Share of Manufacturing Jobs Percent of U.S. Manufacturing Employment 15% Drop Source: US Department of Labor

  14. Percent of Employment in Manufacturing Index US Average: 1990 Source: Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, author’s calculations

  15. Percent of Employment in Manufacturing Index US Average: current Source: US Department of Labor

  16. Net Manufacturing Employment Impact weighted contribution to recessionary job loss Net Job Loss Attributable to Manufacturing Source: US Department of Labor Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02

  17. Net Manufacturing Employment Impact weighted contribution to recessionary job loss Net Job Loss Attributable to Manufacturing Source: US Department of Labor Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak to employment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02

  18. Long Term Sluggishness

  19. Long-Term Job Growth is Sluggish Employment Index: 1991 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Department of Labor

  20. The Labor Force is Shrinking Index: 1990 = 100 US Upstate Source: US Department of Labor

  21. As is the Population population growth 1990 to 2000 Rochester Albany Syracuse Buffalo Binghamton Utica Source: Bureau of the Census

  22. Average Wage Growth per Worker: 1997-2001 private sector, in core MSA county US Average Source: ES202

  23. Conclusions • This recession has not been particularly severe for the majority of upstate • except for Rochester and Binghamton • The manufacturing impact has been somewhat worse than the last recession • and upstate is losing its share of manufacturing jobs • Long term stagnation and low wage growth are more concerning

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