1 / 11

COST-733 WG4 The EU-WATCH project and links between WB4 and COST-733 Christel Prudhomme

COST-733 WG4 The EU-WATCH project and links between WB4 and COST-733 Christel Prudhomme. WATCH Overview. WATer and global CHange (WATCH). WATCH WB4. WP4 : extremes scales of hydrological events. WP4.1 Detection and attribution of extremes in the 20th century

veata
Download Presentation

COST-733 WG4 The EU-WATCH project and links between WB4 and COST-733 Christel Prudhomme

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. COST-733 WG4 The EU-WATCH project and links between WB4 and COST-733Christel Prudhomme

  2. WATCH Overview WATer and global CHange (WATCH)

  3. WATCH WB4 WP4 : extremes scales of hydrological events • WP4.1 Detection and attribution of extremes in the 20th century • historical droughts and large-scale floods in the 20th century • analysis and characterisation of those extremes • WP4.2 Indices and tools to detect extremes and to assess uncertainty propagation • development of indices and tools to detect hydrological extremes • assess the uncertainty in the predicted extremes. • WP4.3 Likely frequency, severity and scale of future hydrological extremes (21st century) • analysis of drought and large-scale floods based on the global and regional scenarios for the 21st century (WB3) • comparison with the simulations for the 20th century.

  4. WATCH WB4 • Task 4.1.3 ‘ Investigate processes and phenomena of major floods in 20th century’ • Task 4.1.4 ‘Spatial and temporal scales and severity of floods in 20th century • Task 4.1.6 ‘Large-scale climate drivers and drought and flood patterns • Flood catalogue • Antecedent conditions: e.g. soil moisture, rainfall; weather types • Are GCMs able to reproduce flood-generating rainfall patterns? • Are large floods in Europe linked to specific weather types • Are flood-generating weather types well reproduced by GCMs?

  5. Understanding large scale antecedent conditions • Weather Types/ Classifications from COST • A priori, all classifications • At present only for Europe: D00 • For each large flood events • Frequency of weather type : preceding day(s) • “ : preceding weeks • Frequency anomaly (i.e. is situation exceptional?) • Blocking situation – blocking catalogue? • Systematic occurrence of some WT ? • Synoptic situation (from ERA-40?) • Analysis of WT a-priory linked to large floods, but that did not trigger extreme events: How often? Why?

  6. Flood Catalogue (Polish Academy of Science)

  7. Reproduction of antecedent conditions by GCMs • Using Weather Types/ Classifications codes from COST • In priority for classifications showing good links with large floods • Generate classifications from GCM runs of 20th century • Evaluate results against classifications from re-analysis/CRU • Frequency of Weather Type (monthly/seasonal/annual) • In particular, WT linked to large floods • Frequency of Blocking situation • Feed back systematic errors to WG1 (20th century GCM simulation)

  8. After 18th month from now • Area of interest outside Europe • Application of classifications to future projections from GCM • Changes in frequency of WT • Potential implication for change of frequency in large floods

  9. Advise on … • …Best reference set: ERA-40? – but known deficiencies, e.g. rainfall • …CRU climatology, but not all atmospheric variables? • …What else?

  10. Thank you

More Related