1 / 18

Technological progress and capacity estimations

Technological progress and capacity estimations - Management implications for the Danish cod trawl fishery Erik Lindebo, SJFI Copenhagen, Denmark. Capacity management Baltic cod fishery Baltic cod fleet Investment & tech. progress Analysis: Dataset

vega
Download Presentation

Technological progress and capacity estimations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Technological progress and capacity estimations - Management implications for the Danish cod trawl fishery • Erik Lindebo, SJFI • Copenhagen, Denmark

  2. Capacity management • Baltic cod fishery • Baltic cod fleet • Investment & tech. progress • Analysis: Dataset • Analysis: Technological progress • Analysis: DEA capacity estimates • Limitations • Management implications

  3. Capacity management • MAGPs 1983 to present • 1990’s – Danish fleet reduced by over ¼ (GT, kW) • Strict policy and limited fleet renewal • 2000-01 expansion allowed under current MAGP targets •  23% (GT) and 26% (kW) •  19% (GT) and 29% (kW) for trawl segment

  4. Impact of technological progress • Tech. progress allows: •  Increase production level given effort or •  Maintain production level whilst reducing effort • International estimates of 2-3% per annum • Paper partly based on EU study (UK, France, Holland and DK) “The impact of technological progress on fishing effort” • Danish cod trawl fishery in the Baltic Sea

  5. Finland Norway Sweden Estonia Russia Denmark Latvia Baltic Sea Lithuania Bornholm Germany Poland

  6. Baltic cod fishery • Cod fishery is the most valuable in Denmark • Fine balance between human and environmental factors • Winter months – high season • Eastern and Western cod stocks • ICES recommends reduction in fishing mortality • 1980-90’s has seen a boom-and-bust period • Problems expect to intensify due to stock problems in North Sea

  7. Volume/value of cod landings, 1987-99

  8. Baltic cod fleet • Trawling vessels dominate • Mobile fleet with variable strategies • Influx of larger vessels from North Sea during boom period • Later years – smaller, flexible vessels have dominated • Managed by quota rations, mesh sizes, closed seasons etc.

  9. Investments & tech. progress • Tightening of capacity-enhancing project investments • Renovations, electronics, fish handling, engines, safety equip. • Limited incentives since cod decline in 1992-93 • Qualitatively analysed through industry interviews and literature

  10. Progress of cod trawling fleet, 1987-99

  11. Analysis: Dataset • 23 trawlers actively fishing Baltic cod (sub-fleet) • February, 1987-99 • Made specific to enable the use of cod stock (SSB) information • Directorate of Fisheries data variables such as: • Landing data (cod/other), days at sea, landing declarations, GT, kW, length, age, insurance value, homeport, fishing gear, SSB (two stocks), tech. progress dummy

  12. Analysis: Technological progress • Undertaken by Jim Kirkley and Cathy Morrison • Standard economic analytical procedure (technical change) • Sub-fleet production was –3% per annum • Sub-fleet CPUE declined over the period • Insurance value is representative of progress • Vessels varied in extent of contribution to overall tech. progress • Sub-fleet tech. progress of 1.8% per annum

  13. Technological change for trawling sub-fleet, 1987-99 Year to Year Mean 87-93 Mean 94-99 Cumulative 10 25 8 20 6 15 Year to Year/Mean Cumulative 4 10 2 5 0 -2 0 1990-91 1991-92 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96

  14. Analysis: DEA capacity estimates • Mathematical linear programming technique, estimating the relative efficiency of vessels • Potential capacity output given inputs • Capacity utilisation (CU)……see Table 5 on page 17 • Vessel CU range 0.52-0.92 (1987-99 average) • Sub-fleet CU 0.73 (1987-99 average) • CU scores are worse in later years • Bornholm have fewer problems with capacity • Vessels with lowest CU show greater tech. progress

  15. Limitations • Results for 23 vessels cannot be aggregated to fleet level • No annual data to take account of flexible fishing strategies and objectives of investments • No distinction between cod and other fish landings • Impact of management regulations (quota rations) will determine investment incentives and capacity utilisation • DEA analysis • Revenue-based approach • Larger vessel sample with annual data • Tentative results due to vessel-specific and seasonal data

  16. Management implications • Vessels with high tech. progress have low CU  increased potential has not been realised due to restricted quota rations • Better CU for Bornholm vessels • Technological progress – not uniform over time and driven by fisher incentives (stock status) • Capacity problems in analysed fleet • Fishing industry acknowledges that there is overcapacity •  possible capacity expansion under MAGPs (trawl segment)? •  Question validity and objectives of MAGP targets

  17. Grazie

More Related