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Income distribution: flash estimates 2016 (FE ) Item 3.6 of the agenda

Timely flash estimates of income distribution for 2016, produced through microsimulation and macro-economic time series modeling. Assessment of quality and plausibility, with communication and consultation with Member States. Main messages and ways forward discussed.

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Income distribution: flash estimates 2016 (FE ) Item 3.6 of the agenda

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  1. Income distribution: flash estimates 2016 (FE)Item 3.6 of the agenda DSS Meeting3 and 4 October 2017

  2. Timeliness of social statistics • Used in Europe 2020, the European Semester and various high level policy frameworks • Income comes late • Double action: • Advance the SILC data delivery • Flash estimates

  3. Flash Estimates 2017 • Income year 2016 • AROP, QSR, D1-D9 • Produced through • Microsimulation (Euromod). Three main elements: changes in employment, uprating factors, changes in the tax benefit systems) • Macro-economic time series modelling (METS) • Assessment • Quality in the process • Quality of the output • Historical performance • Plausibility

  4. Communication • "Magnitude direction scale" • Advantages and drawbacks • - Discussed with users and producers

  5. Consultation with the Member States • Task force • SILC WG and DSS Validation in two phases • Methods: SILC WG • Results: summer bilateral consultations

  6. Publication as experimental statistics • Puts the basis for receiving feedback from users and the research community • We cannot expect to capture perfectly changes in the SILC estimates: => the accuracy of the indicators depends on differences in the input datasets, model assumptions (e.g. policies simulated under microsimulation ).

  7. Main messages • Overall increase of the disposable income • AROP and QSR often non-significant • Importance of analysing the deciles • Interest of looking at time series

  8. Temporal perspective

  9. 3 main documents are available • As experimental statistics under the responsibility of Eurostat • Experimental results • Methodological note • Temporal perspective (graphs)

  10. Ways forward • Collect feedback, including yours • Present to users • Analyse the results when the 2016 SILC data would be available • Produce the new cycle • June, if possible • Microsimulation versus macro-economic modelling • Better dissemination and narrative • Improve the models (uncertainty, alignment, plausibility)

  11. Future participation of MS • Feedback • Provision of data- streamline the process • Validation • The DSS are invited to comment • - on the methods used and the results achieved • - on the future steps

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