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Changes in Operating Duty & Impact on RAM

Changes in Operating Duty & Impact on RAM. Bob Steele. March 7, 2007. Industry Changes. Significant Changes in Market over past 10 to 15 Years Changes in Anticipated Demand Environmental Concerns Fuel Prices Others…

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Changes in Operating Duty & Impact on RAM

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  1. Changes in Operating Duty & Impact on RAM Bob Steele March 7, 2007

  2. Industry Changes • Significant Changes in Market over past 10 to 15 Years • Changes in Anticipated Demand • Environmental Concerns • Fuel Prices • Others… • Review How These Changes Have Impacted… Operating Profile and RAM (Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability) • Based Upon Data From ORAP • Review Generic Aero-derivative Market Data (Not Specific to GE Engines)

  3. Base ORAP® • ORAP - Operational Reliability Analysis Program • Service provided to • Owner/Operators • Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) • Monitors Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) • Adheres to Industry Standards: IEEE Std. 762 and ISO 3977 • Gas Turbine, Steam Turbine and All Related Plant Equipment

  4. Base ORAP® • Proprietary Database • Contains 20,000 Unit Years of Operating Information from 2,000 Units Around the World • Operating, Maintenance, and Failure Information on Total Plant Equipment • Proprietary Equipment Breakdown Structure (EBS) • Common Coding Structure for Equipment and Components Across Different Fleets and OEMs • Equipment Hierarchy • Major System Down to Individual Components

  5. P&W Power Systems Steam Turbine OEMs ALSTOM General Electric Rolls-Royce Siemens Base ORAP® Participation Includes FT8 FT4 501 AVON TRENT RB211 LM6000 /DLE LM5000 LM2500 /DLE LM1600 LM500 MS5001 MS6001B-FA MS7001B-FA MS9001B-FA W251 W501AA-FD V84.2 V84.3A V94.2 Size: 2 MW to >700 MW GT11D GT11N-N2 GT13-E2 GT8B-C GT9 GT24 GT26 FOSSIL ST Covers Simple & Combined Cycle Arrangements, Including Steam Cycle

  6. Change In Operating Profile Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • Over 40% Reduction in Annual Service Hours from 1995 to 2006 • On Average Aero-derivative Market Operating More in Cycling Duty During the Last 5 years

  7. Gas Price Influence • Change in Duty/Operating Profile – Follows Increasing Costs of Natural Gas

  8. Availability & Reliability Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • Decrease in Availability and Reliability During Period of Transition to Cycling Duty Occurs (~1998 – 2001) • Fairly Consistent Reliability and Availability in Last 5 Years

  9. Duty Cycle Impact – Service Factor Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • All Duty Cycles Have Experienced a Decrease in Annual Service Hours in Most Recent 5 Year Period • Cycling Duty Units Decreased ~30% - Approximately 950 Service Hours per Year

  10. Duty Cycle Impact – Service Hours/Start Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • Annual Service Hours per Start Also Decreases Across All Duty Cycles in Most Recent 5 Year Period • Cycling Duty Units Decreased to ~12.9 Hours per Start – Indicative of Daily Start/Stop Operation

  11. Duty Cycle Impact – Output Factor Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • Output Factor Representative of Average Unit Load During Operation • Decreased Output Factor – Not Only are Units Operating Less, Also Operating At Lower Load Levels

  12. Duty Cycle Impact - Availability Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • On Average, Availability Higher Across all Duty Cycles for Most Recent 5 Year Period • As Cycling Duty Has Become More Prevalent, RAM Performance has Improved Significantly – Still Lower Than Any Other Duty Cycle

  13. Duty Cycle Impact – Unplanned Events Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • Slight Reduction in Frequency of Unplanned Events Over Last 5 years (Increased Time Between Events). • Unplanned Events Still Occur Over Twice as Frequently on a Service Hours Basis on Cycling Duty Units than Baseload Units. • Significant Decrease in Average Duration for Cycling Duty Units as Number of Units Operating in this Manner Increased

  14. Duty Cycle Impact – Engine Removals Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS® • Engine Removals Occur More Frequently on Cycling Duty Units • Planned Removals Occur Over 50% More Frequently on Cycling Duty than Baseload Duty • Unplanned Removals Occur ~37% More Frequently on Cycling Duty than Baseload Duty

  15. Summary of RAM Performance • Number of Units Operating in Cycling Duty Increasing • RAM Performance has Improved in Most Recent 5 Years • Cycling Duty More Severe than Other Operating Modes • Significant Growth in Availability Performance in Last 5 Years • Function of Reduced Downtime per Event • Change In Operating Profile to Cycling Duty Highlights the Need for CPLM/Cycles Tracking • Daily Start/Stop Operation Increasing – Service Hours per Start Averaging 12 Hours per Start for Cycling Duty Units • Reduction of Output Factor – Indicative of Increased Load Following Across All Duty Cycles – Partial Cycles

  16. ORAP Automated Cycles Tracking™ • Last Year Presented SPS Solution for Automated Cycles Tracking… • Automatically detects and logs every Full, Partial and Trip Cycle as it occurs • Transfers the cycles data (via Internet connection) to the SPS Data Center • Accumulated cycles calculations performed and applied to the appropriate parts • Through ORAP Interactive™ detailed reports can be run and parts age/accumulated cycles tracked

  17. ORAP Automated Cycles Tracking – Status • Initial Remote Data Collection Module Installed • Control System Connectivity Verified • Network Security and Data Transfer Challenges Resolved • Algorithms Validated • Several Bugs Identified and Addressed • Calculates Full, Trip and Partial Cycles in ‘Real Time’ • Enhancements Identified • ‘Heart beat’ being implemented to ensure Communications Link During Periods when Unit Not Operating • Second System Currently Being Readied for Installation

  18. ORAP Cycles Tracking - Cont Cycles Tracking Summary – Web Based Report

  19. ORAP Cycles Tracking - Cont Cycles Tracking Details – Web Based Report

  20. Thank You

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