Progress on “CLRP Aspirations” & “What Would it Take?” Scenarios

1. TPB SCENARIO STUDY Progress on “CLRP Aspirations” & “What Would it Take?” Scenarios Monica Bansal and Michael Eichler Department of Transportation Planning Presentation to the TPB Technical Committee December 5, 2008

2. The Two New Scenarios CLRP Aspirations What Would it Take? Draws on past studies and public outreach to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update and to eventually serve as an unconstrained long range plan. Starts with COG regional CO2 goals and assesses what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal for the transportation sector.

3. Study Timeline

4. The Two New Scenarios CLRP Aspirations What Would it Take? Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update. Starts with CO2 goals (80% below 2005 levels in 2050 and 20% reduction by 2020) and assesses what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal.

5. The Starting Point Baseline • Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecast • 2008 CLRP RMAS Land Use/Transportation Scenarios • More Households Scenario • Households In Scenario • Jobs Out Scenario • Region Undivided Scenario • Transit-Oriented Development Scenario Value Pricing Scenarios • “DC and Parkways Restrained” Public Outreach/Feedback on Previous Scenarios

6. Building the Scenario Goal: To move jobs and housing closer together to create highly accessible and developed areas, and achieve more efficient transportation systems Land Use Decisions Pricing Options Supportive Transit • Address congestion through pricing of new and/or existing lanes • Provide alternatives through enhanced transit • Use menu of transit options from past scenarios • Connect activity centers • Review by Regional Bus Subcommittee • Concentrating projected growth in activity centers and existing/planned transit stations • Consistent review and refinement by planning directors

7. Scenario Criteria “Within Reach” 1. Land use shifts should be within reach for inclusion in the COG Cooperative Forecast 2. Transportation projects should be financially within reach through tax revenues, developer contributions, or pricing.

8. CLRP Aspirations: Land Use Component

12. CLRP Aspirations: Transportation Component

13. Existing System Existing system of activity centers and high quality transit shows mis-match. Many transit stations without activity and many activity centers without high-quality transit.

14. CLRP Projects The transit projects in the CLRP work to address some of these concerns. Bi-County Transitway Corridor Cities Transitway Dulles Metrorail Columbia Pike Streetcar Anacostia Streetcar Crystal City/Potomac Yard Transitway

15. Recommended RMAS Projects Additional projects evaluated under RMAS should be carried forward, with minor modification to provide transit service to additional activity centers. Georgia Ave Transitway Extend Purple Line to New Carrollton VRE Extension to Haymarket US 1 Transitway

16. Studied Network of Variably Priced Lanes A value pricing study completed by the TPB in February of 2008 evaluated a regional network of variably priced lanes, made up of new capacity and selected existing facilities.

17. BRT Network Recommended for Scenario Study A regional network of BRT operating mostly on the priced lanes will provide high-quality transit service to nearly all activity centers in the region.

18. BRT to Provide Rail-Like Level of Service BRT stations will provide many features to decrease boarding time: • All-door, level boarding • Off-board payment • Room for 60’ articulated multi-door buses Other Operating Details: • 12 minute peak headways • 30 minute off-peak headways • 45 MPH on priced lanes • 15 MPH on priority corridor network • Circulator service in activity centers The Shirlington Transit Station in Arlington, VA.

19. Full Scenario Transit Network This network will provide another layer of high-quality transit on top of existing and proposed transit services.

20. Evaluates a regional network of priced lanes that serves as the right-of-way for a high-quality Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network. Uses previously studied transportation facilities as starting points 2008 CLRP Baseline Regional network of variably priced lanes RMAS transit Focuses accessibility improvements on regional activity centers Direct access ramps from priced lanes to activity centers BRT stations serve activity centers, Metro stations, park-and-ride lots Include RMAS projects that provide access to activity centers New activity centers proposed: Fort Detrick, Wheaton, Westphalia and Fort Belvoir Makes use of WMATA Priority Corridor Network (PCN) to provide service to the urban core. Transportation Component of the CLRP Aspirations Scenario Summary

21. The Two New Scenarios CLRP Aspirations What Would it Take? Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update. Starts with CO2 goals (80% below 2005 levels in 2050 and 20% reduction by 2020) and assesses what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal.

22. Setting up the WWIT Scenario Goal: To reduce CO2 emissions by 10% in 2012, and 20% and 80% below 2005 levels in 2012, 2020 and 2050 respectively 3 categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions USE of FLEET FLEET Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

23. Analyzing the WWIT Scenario 3 categories of analysis for each strategy • Effectiveness • Cost-effectiveness • Timeframe for Implementation

24. What can we do with the fleet? Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

25. What can we get with CAFE?

26. Characteristics of the Region’s Vehicle Fleet

27. What can we do with the fleet? Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

28. Forecast Characteristics of the Region’s Vehicle Fleet

29. How do we use thefleet? (and how can this change) Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

30. How We Use the Fleet, An Example

32. Analyzing the WWIT Scenario 3 categories of analysis for each strategy • Effectiveness • Cost-effectiveness • Timeframe for Implementation

33. Cost-effectiveness How can we begin to prioritize strategies? Initial analysis of cost-effectiveness of Transportation Emissions Reduction Measures ($ per ton of CO2 reduced)

34. Analyzing the WWIT Scenario 3 categories of analysis for each strategy • Effectiveness • Cost-effectiveness • Timeframe for Implementation

35. Timeframe for Implementation Early action is essential to meet the goals Example Reductions for Measures While all 3 example measures reduce 100 units of CO2 in 2020, the cumulative emissions reductions from 2011-2020 differ based on the time required for implementation and realization of benefits.

36. Products • “Sliders” metaphor Different combinations of interventions can be assessed for cost-effectiveness and feasibility.