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Hurricanes Last Season and Next

Hurricanes Last Season and Next. Jerry D. Jarrell Director National Hurricane Center. Outline. Brief Review of 1998 Season Major issues for 1999 1999 Season. 1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS.

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Hurricanes Last Season and Next

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  1. Hurricanes Last Season and Next Jerry D. Jarrell Director National Hurricane Center

  2. Outline Brief Review of 1998 Season Major issues for 1999 1999 Season

  3. 1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

  4. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS • 14 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES • 3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CAT. 3, CAT. 4, & CAT. 5) • 10 U.S. LANDFALLS (4 BY GEORGES) • $ 7.3 BILLION U.S. DAMAGE • 23 DEATHS IN THE U.S. • 9684 TOTAL DEATHS (9,000+ IN MITCH)

  5. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS • MITCH WAS THE FOURTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, AND THE STRONGEST EVER OBSERVED IN OCTOBER • ON 25 SEP. FOUR HURRICANES WERE IN PROGRESS AT ONCE-- THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1893

  6. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS • IN A REMARKABLE SPAN OF 35 DAYS…FROM 8/19 TO 9/23…TEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED • THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD OF 1995-1998 FEATURED A RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES (33)

  7. Issues for 1999 (and beyond) Winds at Elevations Inland Flooding A US Catastrophe? 2 Scenarios Memory of History Disaster Resistant Homes Human Impact Scale Warning Lead Times Climate & Season Forecasts

  8. Winds are Stronger Just above the Surface Implications for High Rise Buildings High Terrain

  9. Is the new big Hurricane Killing Agent Inland Flooding? Can We Forget about Storm Surge?

  10. US TC Deaths by Cause Deadliest TCs Since Camille ‘69 Deaths

  11. Can the USA still have a Catastrophic Hurricane Event? Most likely Scenario(s)

  12. Catastrophe Scenario 1. U.S. Coastline Phase 1: Traffic jam Phase 2: Accident or other incident Phase 3: The Hurricane

  13. Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys

  14. Catastrophe Scenario 2. The Key West Problem Phase 1. Adequacy of Escape Routes Questioned Phase 2. No Action to Fix Escape Routes Phase 3. Fear Diminishes Evacuation Phase 4. The Hurricane Storm Surge

  15. People Confuse Memory and History We Act not on History, but on Our Perception of History

  16. Saffir-Simpson Categories of Hurricane Strikes

  17. Chatham County, Georgia, 20 Years into Last Century

  18. Disaster Resistant Homes What is it? Information? Are We Moving in the Right Direction?

  19. Disaster Resistant Demonstration Home off I-95, Deerfield Beach, Florida

  20. The Human Impact Model Saffir- Simpson Scale: A Success Story

  21. Meteorology Demographics Geology Preparedness Infrastructure Building Codes Zoning Communications etc. Casualties Displaced Homeless Destroyed/ Damaged: Buildings Bridges Hospitals Human Impact Model

  22. The Emergency Management Community needs Longer Lead Times for Preparation:We are Trying to Issue Hurricane Warnings Earlier

  23. Hurricane Warnings

  24. Is Climate Changing?What about 1999?

  25. 1999 Forecast:Hurricane Season1 June to 30 NovemberBe Prepared!

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