Kevin Trenberth Chair WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel WCRP: WMO/IOC/ICSU

1. Observations and their Analysis for WCRP/COPES Kevin Trenberth Chair WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel WCRP: WMO/IOC/ICSU 1

2. WOAP: WCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel Next meeting March 2010 http://wcrp.wmo.int/AP_WOAP4.html Kevin Trenberth Chair WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel WCRP/GCOS: WMO/IOC/ICSU

3. WOAP WOAP is primarily sponsored by WCRP but is also co-sponsored by GCOS, WOAP is a coordination Panel in WCRP Preferred channel for interactions GCOS and WCRP AOPC ,OOPC , TOPC are also co-sponsored by WCRP WOAP helps to coordinate GCOS panels and issues WOAP serves to help with GEOSS workplans. Much material and background docs on WOAP website Next mtg: March 2010, Hamburg, Germany

4. TOR for WOAP:paraphrased • Identify climate observational requirements • Help optimize observations • Act as a focal point for WCRP interactions with other groups • Promote and coordinate analysis, reprocessing, reanalysis and assimilation • Promote and coordinate information and data management activities, including web sites. • Observations include those from space platforms.

5. Next meeting 29-31 March 2010: Hamburg Germany • Meeting objectives: • Progress achieved during the last two years in relation to observationsespecially: • GRUAN and interactions between GCOS and WCRP activities • Flux tower measurement exploitation; IGBP • observations from space; CEOS; NPOESS developments • reprocessing; SCOPE-CM; possible major workshop? • interactions between GCOS and WCRP activities, • Participation in GEOSS. • Transition of WCRP projects and datasets beyond 2013

6. Meeting objectives (cont): • Matters arising from JSC 31 • Matters arising from GCOS SC XVII meeting • Assess the activities and results of • Task Group on Data Management and the • Joint Working Group on Observational Data Sets for Reanalysis • Participation in WCRP conference in October 2011 • Datasets for evaluating models: CMIP5 • Reprocessing; SCOPE-CM • Organization of next International Reanalysis conference

7. Working Group on Observational Data Sets for Reanalysis • The Working Group has … • Assembled surface and upper air data set inventories • Augmented existing data sets • Developed detailed plans for improving specific data sets • Leveraged heavily off of ongoing projects • The Working Group has not … • Denoted “official” Implementing Centers (loose confederation is working reasonably well for the moment) • Held many meetings (support for one such meeting would be very helpful)

8. WOAP: Key climate issues • Climate data records • Continuity, continuity, continuity; • The need for reprocessing and reanalysis of past data and coordination of these activities among agencies and variables; • Includes evaluation and assessment or results • Importance of calibration, accuracy, benchmarks, • Space and in situ observations; • Reanalysisto produce global gridded fields GRUAN, GPS RO, CLARREO

9. Data Management Task Group • Led WCRP policy statement • Has made preliminary list of WCRP datasets • Post on web: who to maintain, update? • Points of contact for each , and also each project? • Documentation? Version control? Naming? • Issues: what is future support? Finite life of projects but data go on forever (hopefully). • WCRP assistance in finding homes for data? • Future of this activity?

10. Reanalysis Following the last reanalysis conference in January 2008 where we issued a conference statement, WOAP/WCRP sent out a mailing to many (including program managers) and all involved in reanalysis designed to gather support. A summary of reanalyses in the atmosphere was compiled for Oceanobs'09, and the paper is available. There is not a problem with lack of reanalyses, indeed there is a proliferation.  The problems are: lack of an end to end program with adequate vetting and evaluation of products (and the funding for that), and Reanalysis is all done in a research domain and not sustained, so that key personnel can be lost.  Lack of adequate vetting and diagnosis Reanalysis is an essential part of climate services, especially in monitoring, attribution and prediction

11. Summary of the main atmosphericreanalyses that are current or underway, with the horizontal resolution (latitude; T159 is equivalent to about 0.8 ), the starting and ending dates, the approximate vintage of the model and analysis system, and current status.

12. Climate Observations • Process studies: atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and their interactions • Sustained observations: the climate record • Enhanced monitoring • Analysis, assimilation and data products • Data stewardship, data access, QC • For JSC 2010: • Observations white paper

13. Observations for WCRPKevin TrenberthJSC Feb 2010

14. Climate Observations • Process studies: atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and their interactions • Sustained observations: the climate record • Enhanced monitoring • Analysis, assimilation and data products • Data stewardship, data access, QC

15. Whitepaper on: “Capabilities of Existing and Future Observing Systems” 3rd World Climate Conference (WCC-3) Geneva, Switzerland -- 1-September-2009 Thomas R. Karl,

16. Reanalysis • Integrated datasets, free of time-dependent biases, from various observing systems are required to meet the needs for model development and verification. • Atmospheric analyses provide a synthesis of the available observations in the context of a physical model. • More continuity and infrastructure required. • Atmospheric reanalyses are among the most valuable and widely used datasets in the history of climate science. • Essential for climate services and predictions Status • Significant advances in reanalysis (or synthesis) of ocean data; sea ice, Arctic, and land surface reanalysis; coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation. • International cooperation is vital

17. Reprocessing • Much more work is needed to take advantage of observations already made • To improve knowledge of what has happened and why • To make climate predictions. • The broad scientific community should be engaged in assessing derived data products and refining the algorithms for the generation of these products. • Parallel efforts on the collection, management and homogenisation of in-situ data records must be robust. • Reanalysis of comprehensive, multivariate sets of observations is becoming increasingly valuable for climate monitoring, research, and applications. Status • Some reprocessing efforts underway; emphasis on the construction of climate data records. • More algorithm development and increased computing power required. • Some variables from space platforms are lacking in this effort.

18. Reference Observations • Increasing emphasis has been placed on reference-quality networks for detecting climate trends. • They provide anchor points for existing networks, for calibrating satellite data, and for validating data products. • Reference quality in-situ networks are critical to fill in the inevitable gaps in the climate record caused by lack of overlapping satellite missions • Must be able to answer the question 50 years from now on how global climate has changed and for this reference observations are key Status • GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) is making some progress in spinning up but resources still inadequate for full implementation • Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate-focused mission that will become a key element of the climate observing system, but the launch is not scheduled until 2017.

19. Conclusions and Recommendations • Long-term, high-quality, calibrated, and un-interrupted in-situ and satellite observations of atmosphere, land and ocean are vital for all countries, especially as their economies and societies become increasingly affected by climate variability and change • Since the 1990s, some of the decline in observing networks has been halted and new observing systems have been established, but a number of past concerns remain, and new requirements have emerged • Established in-situ networks and space-based components must be sustained and operated with ongoing attention to data quality and application of the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles (often these are not be followed) • Enhancements must be made to observing systems, filling gaps in coverage, improving measurement accuracy where needed, and establishing key networks of reference observations using absolute calibration and high standard operations. • Failure to fully observe climate ECVs seriously compromises the capabilities of governments to assess and adjust their policies for mitigating and adapting to climate variability and change.

20. Role of WCRP • Advocate improved observations and analysis suitable for climate (satisfying the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles to ensure continuity of record). This especially includes those from space. • Data set development: evaluating observations and promoting global reprocessing and reanalysis. Develop new products and datasets, analytical and diagnostic techniques, high level derived products: for use in understanding and analyzing climate variability and change, and for evaluating models. • Mechanisms and modes of variability in climate anomalies; operational attribution, numerical experimentation in near real time to allow reliable statements to be made not only about what the state of the climate is, but also why it is the way it is and the mechanisms involved.

21. Role of WCRP • Data assimilation and analysis: initializing of coupled models for prediction. • Provide advice on best datasets for various purposes (climatologies and time series) and their merits and limitations. (Error bars are greatly needed.) • High priority needs are to have assessments of datasets for use in evaluating climate models, and specifically those used in the AR5 IPCC report that will participate in the CMIP5 activity

22. Role of WCRP • Help improve and promote sound data stewardship, including data archiving, management, and access. This includes making sure that climate-related data variables are reaching data archives, and that standards are set for archiving new types of data. • Help make data accessible and available e.g., through the internet. Promote shared efforts for data quality control.

23. Future needs: Observations and Analysis • Observations: in situ and from space (that satisfy the climate observing principles); • A performance tracking system; • Climate Data Records (CDRs) • The ingest, archival, stewardship of data, data management; • Access to data • Data processing and analysis • The analysis and reanalysis of the observations and derivation of products, • Data assimilation and model initialization

24. Imperative:A climate information system • Observations: forcings,atmosphere, ocean, land • Analysis: comprehensive, integrated, products • Assimilation: model based, initialization • Attribution: understanding, causes • Assessment: global, regions, impacts, planning • Predictions: multiple time scales • Decision Making: impacts, adaptation An Integrated Earth System Information System

25. WCRP Climate Information System Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull Nature 6 December 2007