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Thinking Critically About Psychological Science. A Questionnaire. Instructions: Below are a number of factual questions, each of which has two possible answers. We are interested in studying the perceived difficulty of these items.
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A Questionnaire • Instructions: Below are a number of factual questions, each of which has two possible answers. We are interested in studying the perceived difficulty of these items. • In each case, one answer has a blank beside it which may or may not be the correct answer. • In the blank, assign a probability that it is in fact the right answer.
A Questionnaire • Here is a sample question: Absinthe is a. a precious stone ____% b. a liqueur • Your task on this would be to indicate what probability (from 1 to 100%) you believe that absinthe is indeed a liqueur. For example, if you are pretty sure that absinthe is a liqueur, you might mark, say, 85%. If you felt equally sure that absinthe is not a liqueur, you might put 15%. If you felt it 50--50 (you have no idea), you might put 50%. In summary, your task is simply to estimate what odds you would give that the answer next to the blank is the correct answer.
Let’s Make a Deal (Old Days!) Monty Hall
Monty Hall Problem • Example of OVERCONFIDENCE • Truth of the matter is… We tend to be more confident than correct! • Another example: • WREAT WATER • ETRYN ENTRY RESAI • GRABE BARGE
Remember That Questionnaire? • Now respond to these questions. • Instructions: • Below are a number of factual questions, each of which has two possible answers. We are interested in studying the perceived difficulty of these items. The correct answer has a blank beside it. • Pretend you hadn't been told the right answer. What probability would you have assigned to the answer with the blank beside it?
Remember That Questionnaire? Absinthe is a. a precious stone ____% b. a liqueur
Hindsight Bias • “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon • The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. • Other examples: • 9/11 • Virginia Tech Massacre
Bottom Line • Hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition. • These errors show why we need rigorous psychological research.
