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Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region

This study explores the potential impacts of climate change on various sectors in the Indian region, including water resources, agriculture, and sea level rise. It examines climate scenarios and uncertainties, climate models, and future projections of rainfall and temperature.

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Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region

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  1. Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: • Water Resources • Agriculture • Sea Level Rise and many more sectors…

  2. Interlinking of Rivers in India

  3. Proposed River Linkages

  4. Climate Scenarios:What are they ? A climate scenario is a plausible representation of future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

  5. Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios • Specifying alternative emissions futures • Uncertainties in converting emissions to concentrations • Uncertainties in converting concentrations to radiative forcing • Uncertainties in modelling the climate response to a given radiative forcing • Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact studies

  6. Climate System

  7. Climate Models • Simplified mathematical representation of the Earth’s climate system • Skill depends on the level of our understanding of the physical, geophysical, chemical and biological processes that govern the climate system • Substantial improvements over the last two decades • Sub-models : atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, biosphere • Typical Resolution of global models (atmosphere) : Horizontal - 250 km; Vertical ~ 1 km • Small-scale processes : Parameterisation • Coupled models (e.g., atmosphere-ocean) • Sensitivity studies/Future projections • Internal variability/Ensemble runs

  8. Development of Future Scenarios of Rainfall & Temperature over India • IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs) • SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs) • SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs) Simulations are generally available for about 200 years (~1870s till 2100)

  9. 5 state-of-the-art climate models run until 2100 with various emission scenarios IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies A2: A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions B1: A world of ‘dematerialization’ and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability

  10. Predicted precipitation change 2080-2000 Source: IPCC 2001 Cubasch

  11. AOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDC Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A, SRES (A2/B2) scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60; 2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are generated for the Indian region. The models used are: 1.Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model. 2. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model. 3. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model. 4. Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. 6. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3) 7. Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.

  12. Global Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Patterns simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

  13. Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

  14. Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

  15. Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models

  16. Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Temperature over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models

  17. Monsoon Precipitation Change (% of 2041-60 as compared to 1961-90 period) due to GHG Increase

  18. Monsoon Precipitation Change (% of 2061-80 as compared to 1961-90 period) due to GHG Increase

  19. Annual Surface Temperature Change (Deg. C in 2061-80 compared to 1961-90 period) due to GHG Increase

  20. Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (IS92a)

  21. Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (SRES/A2)

  22. High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios using Regional Climate Model (HadRM3)

  23. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3) • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM • Formulation identical to HadAM • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° • One-way nesting • Joint Indo-UK Collaborative research programme on climate change impacts in India • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region (the output is being currently analysed by IITM) • HadRM3 installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development in progress at IITM

  24. Model Orographiesin GCM and RCM

  25. Observed and Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (GCM vs. RCM)

  26. Observed and Simulated (GCM and RCM) Surface Air Temperature over India

  27. Indian Summer Monsoon Simulations by HadRM2

  28. Indian Annual Surface Temperature Simulations by HadRM2

  29. Simulation of Monsoon Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in HadRM2 and Likely Future Changes • Changes in Monsoon Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in GHG Scenarios. • Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones. • Intensity of Storms.

  30. Sea level Pressure (SLP) Local Minimum SLP Departure < -5hPa Max. Wind Speed > 15 m/s Duration At least 2 days Criteria adopted for the identification of cyclonic storms (this includes severe storms and monsoon depressions)

  31. A typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional model

  32. Monsoon Depression Tracks as simulated in HadRM2 control and GHG Experiments

  33. Pre and Post-Monsoon Cyclonic Storms and likely Changes in GHG Runs

  34. Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60

  35. Likely Changes in Extreme Rainfall and TMAX/TMIN Temperatures in India

  36. Location of Stations Considered in Extreme Temperature Analysis

  37. Simulation of No. of Rainy Days in the Hadley Center Regional Model and likely future changes in 2041-60

  38. Intensity (mm/day) of Rainfall per rainy day and likely future changes in 2041-2060

  39. Impact of Climate Change on the daily Extreme Rainfall (cm) amounts in India

  40. Impact of Climate Change on the daily Extreme Tmax. (Deg. C) India

  41. Impact of Climate Change on the daily Extreme Tmin. (Deg. C) India

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