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Estimation of MSS subscriber numbers and traffic profiles

Estimation of MSS subscriber numbers and traffic profiles. Paul Britten ESYS plc. CONSULTING. Task Summary. Refine MSS subscriber numbers using inputs from: Previous ESYS market assessment ASMS-TF members; ESA, subject to availability and ability to release material;

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Estimation of MSS subscriber numbers and traffic profiles

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  1. ASMS-TF Meeting 7/8 November 2002, ERO, Copenhagen Estimation of MSS subscriber numbersand traffic profiles Paul Britten ESYS plc CONSULTING

  2. ASMS-TF Meeting 7/8 November 2002, ERO, Copenhagen Task Summary • Refine MSS subscriber numbers using inputs from: • Previous ESYS market assessment • ASMS-TF members; • ESA, subject to availability and ability to release material; • Reports and articles in the public domain • Predict traffic profiles • Estimate total MSS traffic volumes on an annual basis until 2010 which will then be used by Inmarsat to estimate spectrum requirements

  3. ASMS-TF Meeting 7/8 November 2002, ERO, Copenhagen Usage profiles Market segmentation data Review material used in earlier assessment Find new MSS subscriber and traffic data Calibration data Define market segments Identify subscriber data to be used Identify services required in each segment Identify number of subscribers per segment Define individual user traffic by service type Define traffic volumes Spectrum requirement assessment

  4. ASMS-TF Meeting 7/8 November 2002, ERO, Copenhagen Issue • The previous assessment looked at the available forecasts which showed wide variations in subscriber numbers; • Over the period until about 2005 the numbers are constrained by the systems which will be in operation and the systems which will come into operation because of the long lead times of satellite systems; • beyond 2005 various scenarios can be considered but this will result in the same wide variation in the forecast; • forecasts for beyond 2005 need to be capable of justification. e.g. number of systems, services provided, etc.

  5. ASMS-TF Meeting 7/8 November 2002, ERO, Copenhagen Proposed approach • Choose a baseline scenario for the period 2005 and 2010 and examine different growth patterns for that scenario; • the proposed baseline scenario is: • Inmarsat, Euteltracs/Omnitracs, ACeS, Thuriya, Globalstar, Iridium and Orbcomm continue operation until 2010; • one new global mobile satellite system providing broadband services in addition to Inmarsat is introduced over the period 2005 to 2010; • one new regional mobile satellite system is introduced over the period 2005 to 2010.

  6. ASMS-TF Meeting 7/8 November 2002, ERO, Copenhagen Inputs from ASMS-TF • Data on subscriber numbers or traffic levels for individual market segments - needed within the next week; • comments on proposed approach and baseline scenario - needed at this meeting

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