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INSTYTUT METEOROLOGII I GOSPODARKI WODNEJ

INSTYTUT METEOROLOGII I GOSPODARKI WODNEJ. INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION. PIOTR MAŃCZAK, MAGDALENA OŻGA. EUMETCAL NWP APPLICATIONS COURSE, HELSINKI NOV/DEC 2009.

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INSTYTUT METEOROLOGII I GOSPODARKI WODNEJ

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  1. INSTYTUT METEOROLOGII I GOSPODARKI WODNEJ INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION PIOTR MAŃCZAK, MAGDALENA OŻGA EUMETCAL NWP APPLICATIONS COURSE, HELSINKI NOV/DEC 2009

  2. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION OPERATIONAL MODELS INPLEMENTED IN IMGW

  3. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION MODEL BASIC SET-UP - domain size: 2700x2200 km - grid spacing: 14 km - number of layers: 35 - initial state: GME - initial time of model runs: 00 UTC, 12 UTC - forecast range: 78 h

  4. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION FORECAST OF TEMPERATURE AND WIND 0 m AGL Forecast of temperature and wind on different levels for general aviation 300 m AGL 600 m AGL 1000 m AGL 1500 m AGL 3000 m AGL

  5. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Forecast of temperature and wind 21-hour forecast of wind on level 1000 m AGL for TMA Kraków THE OTHERS TMA: Gdańsk Katowice Kraków Łódź Warszawa Zielona Góra, Poznań Bydgoszcz Rzeszów Szczecin Wrocław

  6. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Forecast of freezing level and icing Icing forecast was created by means of operational system LEADS on the basis of temperature, geopotential height and dew point depression from COSMO. LEADS (Leading Environmental Analysis and Display System) is a software suite that collectsmeteorological data form various sources and provides the processing and display capability to enable users to create meteorological support products automatically or manually.

  7. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Forecast of QNH A forecast of atmospheric pressure is converted into QNH by means of barometric formula in ICAO Standard Atmosphere conditions. QNH is calculated with a 1-hour step for each of 17 regions of altimeter setting and for 3 emergency sectors (18-20).

  8. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Forecast of minimum QNH In accordance with requirements of Polish Air Navigation Services Agency a minimum QNH is calculated over 3 sectors (18-20) in 3-hour periods.

  9. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Correction of forecast of minimum QNH A forecast of minimum QNH for all regions is corrected every hour by means of SYNOP data → estimation of an error in the forecast on the basis of the error from theprevioushour → the use of pressure tendency → calculation of an error in the forecast in next hour → correction

  10. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Analysis 07 thNov 2009 12 UTC Warsaw Warsaw Forecast 07 thNov 2009 12 UTC

  11. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Comparison of COSMO temperature forecast 07.11.2009 00 UTC + 12 and TEMP data The real data and temperature forecasts for surface and 300 m AGL are similar (the radiosonding measurements from Legionowo, Łeba, Wrocław are marked in red coloure) . Only 2 degrees difference is in Legionowo – the real temperature was lower than forecasted by COSMO. The small area with the forecast surface temperature ≥6°C

  12. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Comparison of COSMO forecast 07.11.2009 00 UTC + 12 and TEMP data The real temperature at 600 m and 1000 m AGL differ from the forecasts. In Łeba and Wrocław the temperature is higher than it was done in forecast. Probably the reason of these differences is a temperature inversion in boundary layer connected with air subsidence.

  13. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Comparison of COSMO forecast 07.11.2009 00 UTC + 12 and TEMP data In Legionowo temperature at 600 m is lower than forecast. This inversion is causedby the warm temperature advection connected with warm front coming from SE. A subsidence inversion still occur over western and northern part of Poland. frontal inversion subsidence inversion

  14. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Comparison of COSMO forecast 07.11.2009 00 UTC + 12 and TEMP data at 1500 m in Łeba and at 3000 m in Łeba and Wrocław forecasted temperatures were overestimated by 1-2°C. The model assumed homogeneous warm advection which is easy to recognized over SE and central part of Poland, this advection is invisible over the rest part of the country. Freezing level at 00 UTC 1400 m Freezing level at 12 UTC 1400 m Freezing level at 00 UTC SFC, 2100 m Freezing level at 12 UTC 2000 m Freezing level at 00 UTC 1700 m Freezing level at 12 UTC 2000 m

  15. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION CONCLUSIONS There are some problems with temperature forecast in boundary layer in case ofsubsidence inversion existence (maybe the reason is not enough amount of layers in the model in lower troposphere?) For aviation it could be dangerous especially when clouds are in combination with sub-zero or near zero temperature because of icing.

  16. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Analysis 07 thNov 2009 12 UTC Warsaw Warsaw Forecast 07 thNov 2009 12 UTC

  17. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Warsaw

  18. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION 07.11.2009 godz. 06 UTC Warsaw

  19. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION 07.11.2009 godz. 12 UTC Warsaw Warsaw

  20. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION 07.11.2009 godz. 12 UTC Warsaw

  21. CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Comparison of COSMO forecast for wind speed and direction 07.11.2009 00 UTC + 12and TEMP data The wind speed and direction were forecast well in that situation. Just in few cases there were some differences in wind direction, especially at small wind velocities (real data - red wind barbs)

  22. INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Magdalena Ożga e_mail: magda_ozga@wp.pl Piotr Mańczak e_mail: pmanczak@wp.pl

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