Scenarios for ADDRESS at the 2020 horizon

1. Scenarios for ADDRESS at the 2020 horizon ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOPACTIVE DEMAND: THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY François Bouffard, The University of Manchester Paris, June 9th 2010 vision

2. Why scenarios for ADDRESS? • The ADDRESS conceptualarchitecture is generic • Template for developing active demand • However, doesn’t account for different realities • Geography & electricity uses • Underlying national generation mixes • Regulatory & institutional frameworks • Need to pre-validate adaptability of the architecture to different EU contexts • How could ADDRESS futures emerge? • Generate hypotheses about pathways for its emergence • Creation of new institutions, incentives, influence of exogenous factors, etc. ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

3. Underlying factors affecting ADDRESS • Which factors matter most in scenarios for ADDRESS? • Geography • Climate • Human settlements: rural, inner city, suburbs… • Characteristics & density of consumers • kVA or number of consumers per km2 • Socioeconomic fabric of underlying communities • Electricity industry infrastructure • Generation mix • Regulatory context • Technology • End uses • Network technologies ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

4. Scenario methodology - I • Scenario building methodology is not based on the traditional drivers-extremes paradigm • Scenarios gauge potential global success for ADDRESS implementations in representative European contexts • Scenarios elaborate possible transition pathways for ADDRESS implementations in the 2010-2020 horizon • Transition pathways describe • Changes exogenous to the implementation of ADDRESS • i.e. changes in the underlying scenario factors • Changes directly related to the implementation of ADDRESS • i.e. creation of new businesses, new institutions, roll-out of enabling technology ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

5. Scenario methodology - II • 4-step approach for each scenario… • Establish the set of underlying factors at the 2010 boundary • An experts’ panel judges how an emerging ADDRESS in 2010 could be globally successful in helping industry actors meet their stakes • Step 2 again for 2020 hypothesising about evolution of factors and roll-out of ADDRESS conceptual architecture • Elaborate scenario narrative describing chain of events leading to 2020 • Full details in deliverable D1.2 now available off the project website… ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

6. Southern City Southern urban location with significantly increasing air conditioning demand Lots of large-scale transmission-connected wind within a thermally-dominated system High consumer density Mixed socioeconomic consumer background Northern Suburban Village Northern suburban location with heat demand met by district heating or fossil fuels Large-scale hydro capacity with strong international interconnections Medium consumer density Uniform socioeconomic consumer background Comparing two scenarios: The context ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

7. Southern City Needs for new sources of flexibility Balancing Ancillary services Congestion management Large potential supply of active demand High consumer density Important flexible demand Even greater as PEVs start appearing Northern Suburban Village No great demand for flexibility Hydro & interconnections provide plenty of cheap flexibility Some needs for DSO once PEVs appear Small potential supply of active demand Low consumer density Few flexible electricity uses Comparing two scenarios: The success ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

8. Comparing two scenarios: The success • Southern City ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

9. Comparing two scenarios: The success • Northern Suburban Village ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

10. Southern City Early roll-out of smart meters Aggregators make their appearance early on Initially, ad hoc markets for flexibilities focusing on needs at transmission level Formal markets, rules & institutions for trading on distribution grids appear around 2015 Northern Suburban Village Aggregators only make their appearance once PEVs appear en masse Local scope for the use and trade of active demand only Comparing two scenarios: The evolution ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

11. What makes ADDRESS successful? • The global success indicator is closely correlated with the potential success of the aggregator • Global success and the aggregation business are driven by • High demand for flexibility • Several and/or significant system actors would benefit from an increased supply of flexibility • High small consumer flexibility potential • Large numbers of small consumers have significant flexible electricity uses • Many small consumers are willing to join an aggregator and can derive value in flexing their consumption ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

12. Conclusions • Scenarios will play an important role in the continuation of the project • Form the basis for • The elaboration of ADDRESS business cases for aggregators, DSOs and consumers • The evaluation of ADDRESS’ effectiveness in promoting large-scale penetration of distributed energy resources • Focusing necessary adaptations of ADDRESS concepts in light of the field test results ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

13. Read all about it on www.addressfp7.org! ADDRESS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

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