Climate Services in China

1. Climate Services in China Zhiqiang Gong Beijing Climate Center, CMA 2017 Beijing

2. Outline • China Framework of Climate Service • Case Study of Climate Services in BCC • Lessons and Experiences • Future Development of CFCS in China

3. 1.China Framework of climate service (CFCS) Agriculture Decision Makers Public Community Climate-sensitive Sectors Hydrology Energy Two-way Information Sharing User training & Feedback Jointly-issuing Risk Warning Tailored Services & Products User interface Plan and Partnership Climate Impact Disaster Survey Climate Security DRR Vulnerability Climate Capacity Risk Warning Climate Resource Risk Transfer Climate Proofing Climate Monitoring Climate Prediction Climate system models Database

4. Major components of CFCS—Observation ok CMA Integrated Observing Systems (CIOS) is the basis for the provision of accurate, reliable and timely weather, climate, water and related environmental observations and products in a cost-effective and sustainable manner. • Surface Observation Network ：2419 • Weather Radar Network： 216 • Upper Air Sounding Network： 120 • Meteorological Satellites：7 • Specialized Observing Systems：GAW,Agro-meteorology

5. Major components of CFCS—Prediction TCC ECMWF Multi-models Ensemble Hadley NCEP BCC-CSM Extended term prediction Climate Service Monthly prediction Atmosphere Chemistry Aerosol Seasonal, yearly prediction Decadal prediction Climate change projection Ice Coupler Land Climate assessment BCC-RegCM Ocean High Resolution Regional Model Improve physical process and model resolution

6. Major components of CFCS—CSIS • climate monitoring • climate prediction • impact assessment • Interactive product • Data & products pools • Data access interface • Distributing service CIPAS CDB Coral operational platform Climate Database SSP CTB Climate test bed Support Service Platform • Maintenance • Monitoring • Algorithm & tool library • Operational product inspection • Statistical analysis

7. Major components of CFCS—User Platform • To establish an interactive communication mechanism to facilitate information exchange and communications between users and providers to meet the requirements. • Well-developed cooperation mechanisms with user sectors • Utilizing new technology to develop information-sharing platform • User- feedback mechanism established • Education and training of key users

8. Major components of CFCS—Capacity Building • To enhance existing capabilities to provide climate services more effectively by establishing the mechanism and workflow in the areas such as improving the data sharing and collaborative products releasing, deepening the cooperation and exchange between different sectors, strengthening cooperative R&D activities and joint training, and optimizing the operational service system and distribution. • Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) • International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change (ISCS) • International Training Seminar on Methods for Short-term Climate Prediction • International training workshop for climate service • Training and International Visiting Scholar Programme

9. CFCS—PrioritiesandPilotProjects

10. Outline • China Framework of Climate Service • Case Study of Climate Services in BCC • Lessons and Experiences • Future Development of CFCS in China

11. No. 1 Disaster Risk Reduction In this circle chain different users need different climate services.

12. DRR Management • Organizing and coordinating meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation • Providing fund support for infrastructure and disaster relief • Ensuring the inter-sectors emergency response and interaction based on meteorological disaster warning signals. • Emphasizing the involving of community, NGOs and volunteers • Improving training for the public Government Leadership Inter-Sectors Coordination Community participation Working Mechanism for DRR

13. No. 2 Climate Service for Water Resource

14. N0. 3 Climate Service for Agriculture Spring and Summer of 2001 in North China Summer of 2006 in Sichuan Basin Autumn and Winter of 2010/2011 in Huanghuai Areas Winter and Spring of from 2009 to 2013 in Southwest China Spring of 2011 in Middle and Low Reaches of Yangtze River Basin Summer of 2013 in South of China Severe Drought Events Happened almost every year in China after 2000.

15. Flow Chart of Integrated Drought Monitoring, Assessment and Forecasting Drought Impacts Assessment Drought Forecast and Impacts in the Future Drought Outlook, Early Warning Drought Monitoring Impacts on Agriculture Status of Soil Moisture Status of Crop Growth Water Content in Crop Areas of Impact on Agriculture Impacts on Water Resources Precipitation Amount Flow Rate of the Rivers Water Areas Ground Water Level Drink Water Condition Simulation results of Hydrological Models Drought Severity Strength of Drought Indices Cumulative Degree Rank in the Historical Series Drought Duration Days Dry Days by Indices Dry days by Precipitation Consecutive Dry Days Drought Coverage Areas Data from Drought Indices Data from Remote Sensing Data from Filed Survey Weather Forecast Climate Prediction Drought Severity, Drought Duration Days and Drought Coverage Areas in the Future Drought Impacts on Agriculture, Water Resources and other Sectors in the Future Multi-observation System Service for Decision Maker, Farmer and Special Users

16. No 4 Climate service for Energy Pilot project: China wind energy resources development and utilization • To establish observation network, • To assess distribution of wind energy resources, • To develop advanced numerical model, • To build up the wind power forecasting system, • To support wind power scientific scheduling and safe operation of the power grids.

17. Outline • China Framework of Climate Service • Case Study of Climate Services in BCC • Lessons and Experiences • Future Development of CFCS in China

18. 1.Why a National Framework for Climate Services? It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines, actors and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…)for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors. A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings.

19. 2.How to Transfer from Climate to Sevices Understanding the benefits of climate services Climate Monitoring Tailored Products User Engagement Product Delivery UIP Feedback, Monitoring &Evaluation CSIS Climate Prediction Capacity Development Process of developing climate services Services are developed through ongoing engagement between providers and users.

20. Engagement and Feedback Users Beijing Climate Center Government Public Tech. Department Res. Department OP Department Application and Service Department Private Partner Private Company Basis Window/Bridge ……. Feedback, monitoring and evaluation are essential for capturing the user’s experience and hence improving the service and its utility.

21. Products Delivery Mechanism Countries, International Entities/organizations National Level National Products Integrated Data System R&D Service National Consultation Domestic Regional Level Prediction Datasets Service R&D Regional Consultation Provincial Level Prediction Datasets Service Provincial Consultation Municipal Level Obs. Prediction Datasets Service County Level Obs. Forecast Service National government and Entities Provincial government and Entities Municipal and county government PPP, Companies

22. 3. What are key elements to Climate Sevices? Seamless hydrometeorological climate services Weather • Climate • Water

23. Decision-making across timescales • Begin planning and monitoring of forecasts • Update contingency plans • Sensitize communities • Enable early-warning systems • Continue monitoring • Adjust plans • Warn communities • Local preparation activities • Activate response • Instruction to communities to evacuate, if needed Mark Twain: Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get

24. 4. The Importance of Cross Collaboration Distribute daily traffic and weather information, and co-issue warnings as needed Establishment of emergency response categories (I,II or III) Based on Weather warning categories (Blue, Yellow, Orange and Red) Flood and Typhoon Prevention Traffic Ministry of Transport Ministry of Water Resources Issue drought warnings for agricultural departments Co-issue air quality status and 24hr prediction Ministry of Agriculture Drought Relief More Departments…… Air pollution Ministry of Environment Protection Co-issue geological disaster warnings Issue forecasts and warnings to all levels of government and provide weather modification services to the forestry department. Ministry of Land and Resources Geological Disaster Forestry Department Forecast fire risks Sand storm Cross collaboration is the most important elements, CMA also has Coherent Action with other Governmental Agencies. Agreements with other governmental agencies in China

25. Outline • China Framework of Climate Service • Case Study of Climate Services in BCC • Lessons and Experiences • Future Development of CFCS in China

26. 3. Future development of CFCS • Enhance Five Pillars of CFCS • Improve Climate Prediction Accuracy • Extend Climate Service Field • Strengthen the Partnership

27. Thank you

28. BCC_ESM Phase IV 2015- … BCC_CSM2 BCC_AGCM3(T266) BCC_AVIM1.0(T266) MOM4-L40v2(1/6°~15km) SIS(1/6°~15km) Phase III 2011-2015 BCC_CSM1.1(m) BCC_AGCM2.2(T106) BCC_AVIM1.0(T106) MOM4-L40v2(1/3°~30km) SIS(1/3°~30km) 2005-2010 BCC_CSM1.1 BCC_AGCM2.1(T42) BCC_AVIM1.0(T42) MOM4-L40v1(1/3°~30km) SIS(1/3°~30km) Phase II 2005-2009 BCC_CSM1.0 BCC_AGCM2.0(T42) CLM3(T42) POP(1/3°~30km) CSIM(1/3°~30km) 2005-2008 BCC_CM1.0 1995-2004 BCC_AGCM1.0(T63) NCC/LASG OGCM(T63) Phase I • Improve Climate Prediction Model System • CMIP5 • Climate • Prediction CMIP5 • CMIP3 (AR4) • Operational Climate • prediction Climate System Model (BCC_CSM)

29. Broadening the areas of the climate services Large Engineer Water  Conservancy Project Railway Road Project Wind Farm Project Ecological Protection Project Nuclear Power Project Major Developing Region Project Energy Savingand Emission Reduction Project Agriculture Energy Sanitation Planning Ocean Building Insurance Water source Department Region Climate Monitoring Climate Impact Climate Prediction Climate Change Climate Risk Climate Adaptation Climate Effect

30. Partnerships are key for success of CFCS • As the regional level, BCC will • Encourage and support multilateral efforts to address regional needs • Improve quality of climate products and information • Tightly cooperate with other RCCs • Improve FORCAII WMO RCC Status Worldwide

31. Climate Science for Services Partnership (CSSP) between China and UK Thiscollaborative endeavor began in 2014. The programme is enhancing collaboration in underpinning climate science which will help both countries develop robust climate services to protect society against climate variability and prepare for a changing climate.

32. Concern... Strong Wind Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Heavy rainfall / Flood Heatwaves Need for > coping mechanisms Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Intensity Industry Health Urban areas Vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing Weather • Climate • Water Frequency

33. What it used to be... Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with hazards Climate variability and change increase uncertainty, can increase or decrease this coping range. Coping range Probability P (x) Drought Flooding X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) Source: Wilhite 2006

34. Meteorological Disaster Reduction Survey • Land and mud slides • Topographic and geologic parameters ,Land use ,Underlying surface coverage, Human activity and earthquake data • Mountain floods • Terrain, Soil, Valley • Small and medium river floods • Drainage system, DEM, Land use ,River course ,Reservoir and levee • Urban waterlogging • DEM, Inner-city river course, Drainage system and pipe network, Waterlog-prone environment ,Water facilities and projects CMA launched a nationwide flood risk survey in 2012 and created a risk warning dataset has been created. 8,596 mudslide and 70,858 landslide sites; 23,123 flood-prone mountain paths; 56,340 urban waterlog-prone sites in 50 cities; 5,757 small and medium rivers.

35. Drought Impact Assessment and Service Maize yield reduction rate • Assessment impact on the Agriculture (Maize yield reduction rate ) • Assessment influence population , Crop drought area and economic losses • Assessment water resources in reservoir and rivers • Provide services to local governments and public through various media.

36. Climate service for renewable energy 400 wind-measurement towers 70-meter 329 100-meter 68 120-meter 3

37. No. 2 Climate Service for Water Resource Hydrological modeling for different temporal-spatial scale VIC –National scale Monthly Water Balance Model - Four main river basin VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) HBV Model Monthly Water Balance Model HBV model-Poyang Lake SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) Floodarea Model Floodarea model-delineation of flooded areas SWAT: Key mesoscale watersheds

38. MODES1.2 in Yangtze River Basin Objective forecast methods for rainfall prediction of Yangtze River Basin • Select the circulation field suitable for Yangtze River Basin • The ensemble of 5 seasonal models and the output of 2 types of monthly dynamical model products • Optimize the graphical interface display

39. Severe Drought in the Summer of 2014 in North China • Monitor Drought day by day • Provide the drought influence areas every day • Provide more than 20 drought index, include MCI, SPI, PDSI, Soil Moisture，Satellite Remote Sensing Pictures, etc. • Issued the drought early warning in Henan, Shanxi and Liaoning provinces.

40. Motivation To adjust China Climate Reference Observation Networks, which will include about 241 Reference Climate Observation sites in the future. To achieve high-precision automatic weather observations for temperature, precipitation, radiation. Climate Reference Network Re-design 40

41. Multi-Model Downscaling Ensemble System (MODES) EC NCEP JMA BCC …… … BCC ECMWF NCEP Monthly Prediction BP-CCA EOF-ITE OSR CPPM …… Down Scaling 2014-2015 Summer prediction EM MLR …… Multi-model and multi-method ensemble 2014 2015

42. DERF Downscaling Prediction ADAS RegCM System Nested AGCM Global/ Coupling Regional Products Downscaling System Monthly/ OGCM Seasonal GODAS Predictions ENSO BCC Dynamical Climate Models Prediction System(DCMPS) ADAS: Atmospheric Data Assimilation System GODAS: Global Oceanic Data Assimilation System DERF: Monthly Dynamical Extended Range Forecast AGCM: Atmospheric General Circulation Model OGCM: Oceanic General Circulation Model ENSO: simplified ENSO prediction models

43. Cases of Extreme EventsImpact Massive mudslides induced by mountain floods in 2010, Zhouqu, Gansu • An unexpected heavy rainfall triggered severe land mudslides.As a result, the downtown area was submerged. 1471 people were killed with 294 people missing. • Catastrophic heavy rainfall and floods in Beijing, July 21, 2012 • Heavy rainfall induced the occurrence of floods and waterlog in urban areas and landslides in the suburbs, and left a death toll of 66 people. The maximum rainfall reached 460mm (Beijing’s annualized rainfall: 500mm) Extreme rainstorm in Beijing in 2012 Destroyed Downtown in Zhouqu in 2010

44. Our Vision • To provide timely, accurate and tailored climate services for the safety and well-being of the people • To deliver much more accurate predictions based on seamless forecasting system • To develop user partnership and help users better understand our services as well as get benefits • To extend climate service area to help society plan for and adapt to climate variability and climate change, keep climate security • To make more contribution to GFCS by different ways.

45. User engagement This stage refers to the understanding of user needs, decision-making cycles, dependencies. This stage in the process is essential to establish trust in climate information by users to enhance uptake and usefulness of the climate information.

46. Cooperation with Users CMA and Ministry of Water Resources: climate prediction consulting meeting for summer season; CMA and Ministry of Agriculture: early frost prediction for autumn season and its impacting assessment ; CMA and National Forestry Bureau: dust storm climate prediction,seasonal climate rank of forest fire risk prediction ; CMA and Ministry of Land and Resources: geological disasters outlook …...

47. Delivery of products Hubei Provincial Climate Centre/CMA climate services activities: calendar for delivery of products for the Yangtze Basin For a successful climate service, this component involves both a mechanism for delivery of information (for example: via web portal, e-mail, phone call, mobile app, television) but also opportunities for interaction, assistance with interpretation, troubleshooting or a collaborative decision-making process.

48. Regional Collaboration on Climate Prediction Emerged Climate Prediction Methods and Systems, in terms of statistic-dynamic combined prediction, multi-model ensemble, are sharing with regional and international partners through GFCS training courses.

49. Mission • To monitor and diagnose global atmospheric and oceanic conditions, as well as extreme climate events , especially in East Asia • To issue global climate predictions and impact assessments at monthly, seasonal and inter-annual time scales, particularly in East Asia • To implement GFCS in China • To do research on climate and climate change issues

50. The CMA S2S Archive Center has built in National Meteorological Information Center, CMA With the Fully-coupled Climate System Model, BCC also participates the S2S project and provide model prediction data. The CMA’s S2S data portal was officially launched on November 16, 2015 and is accessible at http://s2s.cma.cn freely.