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Employment: gauging the crisis and outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist

Employment: gauging the crisis and outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Prepared for “The Jobs Deficit: The Challenge of Putting America Back to Work” New America Foundation Oct. 20, 2009. Worst recession by employment. Not the worst by GDP.

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Employment: gauging the crisis and outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist

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  1. Employment: gauging the crisis and outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Prepared for “The Jobs Deficit: The Challenge of Putting America Back to Work” New America Foundation Oct. 20, 2009

  2. Worst recession by employment

  3. Not the worst by GDP

  4. Jobless claims suggest turning point Four week moving average

  5. Signs of reviving demand for labor in construction, manufacturing Vacancy rate, % Source: BLS, JP Morgan Chase

  6. USA now a high unemployment country Unemployment rate, %

  7. Long term unemployment may lead to hysteresis Median duration of unemployment, weeks

  8. Crises leave lasting damage Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Sept 2009 p 122

  9. A smaller future GDP than we thought Source: CBO 2007 & 2009 Budget & Economic Outlooks

  10. Finance, autos & housing share of total employment Source: Citigroup, July, 2009

  11. Slower labor force growth Source: CBO Budget & Economic Outlook Aug, 2009

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