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Royal Saudi Family 2017. King Salman. Mohammad bin Salman. Who are the Saudis?. a Despotic Monarchy (hereditary). Exclusive political system Sudairi 7 (full brothers) House of Saud. a One world's most densely armed nations. a Saudi “extractive economy” is least diversified in GCC.
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Royal Saudi Family 2017 King Salman Mohammad bin Salman
Who are the Saudis? aDespotic Monarchy (hereditary) Exclusive political system Sudairi 7 (full brothers) House of Saud aOne world's most densely armed nations aSaudi “extractive economy” is least diversified in GCC A Welfare State 70% population under age 30 25% are unemployed aWahhabi form of Islam
So… who are the Wahhabis? How are they different from other Muslims?
ISLAM Sunni Shia Schools of Jurisprudence Schools of Jurisprudence Sufi Twelver Zaidi Ismaili Hanafi Hanbali Maliki Shafii Alawite Druze Jafri Nizani others… Orders Salafi Wahhabi Mevlevi Bektashi Naqshbandi Bukhari Qadiri many others… Quietists Activists Jihadists Leo Gher 2017 Indonesia, etc. Western, etc.
Wahhabi Basics All Wahhabis have a puritanical approach to the religion. … and believe that by strictly following the Quran and Sunnah human subjectivity and self-interest is eliminated. Wahhabi Muslims From this perspective, there is only one religious interpretation – pluralism does not exist. Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab They are Quietists focusing on educational methods (madrassas) for propagating the Islamic faith.
Wahhabism • Established early 1900s by the House of Saud • revolt against the Ottoman empire • 40,000 executions | 350,000 amputations • mid-century oil boom meant riches • Only TRUE ISLAM = Wahhabism
Wahhabi Proselytize Hubs Salafi Muslims
Critics of Wahhabism • The majority of Sunni and Shia Muslims worldwide strongly disagree with the interpretation of Wahhabism • Islamic scholars from the Al-Azhar University, regularly condemn Wahhabism with terms such as "Satanic faith”. • Wahhabism has been accused of being: • a source of global terrorism • inspiring the ideology of ISIS • causing disunity in Muslim communities • a fanatical and innovative movement within the tradition of Sunni Islam
Islam/West – 10 Comparisons Saudi ArabiaUnited States • Wahhabism • Despotic Monarchy Hereditary • Quran | Sharia Law • Extractive Economy • Military dependent • Tribal Society Clan Supremacy • Remnant fate Toward Religion • Islamic Empire • Oral Tradition • Nomadic Heritage Christianity Democracy Constitution | Statutory Law Diverse Economy World military power Pluralistic Society Individualism Manifest destiny From Religion Holy Roman Empire Written tradition Farming heritage
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship • Despite the differences... • A “marriage” of convenience • We buy your oil • You buy our weapons
A Profusion of Baffling Events USA–Saudi Arabia $100b arms deal Saudi Arabia war in Yemen Saudi Arabia blockades Yemen World’s largest Cholera outbreak Yemen to date: 913,741 victims
A Profusion of Baffling Events Saudi Arabia blockades Qatar SA arranges Lebanon PM resignation Kingdom orders citizens out of Lebanon France’s President Macron meets with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
A Profusion of Baffling Events Saudi Arabia Charges Iran in ‘Act of War’ Salman arrests 200 princes, government ministers, and wealthy businessmen. SA government warnings of Hezbollah Kingdom seeks Israel rapprochement
A Profusion of Baffling Events MbS announces sale of Aramco IPO worth $2 trillion with it will... develop domestic arms manufacturing sector, becoming arms supplier to the Islamic world sponsor 50,000 new madrassas worldwide
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship Many explanations: Reengineering the welfare state Post-petroleum future Develop a vibrant private sector Smaller bureaucracy Curb Wahhabi religious establishment Restore “moderate Islam.” Thomas Friedman called it “Saudi Arabia’s Arab Spring, at last.”
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship • Now kingdom under stress • US shale oil development • Saudi oil to USA falls 55% • Oil prices drop below $50 • $150b annual deficit budget • USA treaty with Iran • Al Qaeda uprisings • Egypt overthrown • Yemen war going nowhere
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship Leo’s explanation for Saudi actions... Ockham’s Razor:There are many reasons for what is happening, but the simplest is... DESPOTS WILL BE DESPOTS
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship King Salman (aka Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman) has chosen to employ the traditional... DICTATOR’S PLAYBOOK
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship • A DICTATOR’S PLAYBOOK: • Silence the Press – MBC, ART, Rotana • Marginalize the Opposition – • former Crown Prince Neyef • Begin anticorruption campaign – • arrest princes, ministers & businessmen • 4. Blame a Foreign Bogeyman– Iran • 5. Find a Scapegoat – Hezbollah, Houthis • 6. The Big Lie–Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia – USA Relationship Why should WE (USA) care? The danger of being dragged (yet again) into a Middle Eastern conflagration between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Let’s take a look at the current status...
Middle East Conflict Sites/Status Shia affiliate Islamist Turkey Iraq Shia Iran Wahhabi Saudi Arabia Militarized Egypt U.S. Air Bases U.S. Naval Bases U.S. Army Bases Wahhabi training site