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AdcircLite -NC Rapid computation of storm surge and waves for NC coastal waters

AdcircLite -NC Rapid computation of storm surge and waves for NC coastal waters. Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute/UNC Chapel Hill Jesse Bikman , MS Candidate Department of Marine Sciences, UNC Chapel Hill Alexander Taflanidis , Andrew Kennedy University of Notre Dame

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AdcircLite -NC Rapid computation of storm surge and waves for NC coastal waters

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  1. AdcircLite-NCRapid computation of storm surge and waves for NC coastal waters Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute/UNC Chapel Hill Jesse Bikman, MS Candidate Department of Marine Sciences, UNC Chapel Hill Alexander Taflanidis, Andrew Kennedy University of Notre Dame Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences

  2. Why rapid computation? • Urgent forecasting needed before disaster strikes • Forecast simulations are resource intensive, requiring 2.5 - 3 hours computation time on 192 processor systems • Planners/emergency managers need forecast information as quickly as possible • AdcircLite-NC provides storm surge and wave forecasts at response nodes by implementing UND surface response method

  3. Project goals and expected results Task 1. Preliminary data and testing/calibration of UNDInterpolator • Establish response node evaluation dataset • Hindcasthurricanes such as Franand Isabel Task 2. Expand to include wave characteristics • Expand UNDInterpolator to include significant wave height, period, direction Task 3. Integrate into North Carolina Forecast System • Post-process UNDInterpolator output into NC-CERA/OPeNDAP formats Task 4. Calibration and Skill Assessment • Cross validate to improve accuracy • Optimize for storm surge and wave heights

  4. What does AdcircLite-NC do? • Response Surface Method(RSM) — Given an set of input parameters, predict a response influenced by several variables • Input parameters for AdcircLite-NC: hurricane parameters • RSM for AdcircLite-NC: UNDInterpolator

  5. What does ADCIRC-Lite do? AdcircLite-NC uses NHC best track and pre-computed dataset as inputs

  6. What does AdcircLite-NC do? UNDInterpolator evaluates track response using pre-computed dataset

  7. What does AdcircLite-NC’s RSM look like? Where x = vector containing hurricane track parameters Ẑi(x) = response at x b(x) = basis functions ai(x) = basis coefficients NB = number of basis functions

  8. What parameters are used? • Central Pressure Deficit (CPD) • Radius to Maximum Winds (RMW) • Holland B Shape Parameter (HB) • Translation Speed(TS) • Approach Angle (θ) • Distance Between (DB)

  9. Visual description of RMW

  10. Visual description of θ

  11. Relationship between Holland B, RMW, and VG

  12. Progress to date: Task 1. Preliminary datasets and testing of the UNDInterpolator • Established testbed of response nodes • Compared UNDInterpolator output from response nodes to validated ADCIRC runs for hurricanes Franand Isabel

  13. Next steps, near-term Improve hindcasting weights optimization by removing tidal forcing from validated ADCIRC model run

  14. Comparison of Ẑ to max ele from validated run

  15. Next steps, long-term Incorporation of AdcircLite-NC into NC-CERA

  16. Works cited • Blanton, Brian, Peter Vickery, Rick Luettich, Jeff Hanson, and Kevin Slover. North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program Coastal Flood Insurance Study Submittal Number 3 - Production Simulations and Statistical Synthesis. 2011. • Taflandis, Alexandros A., Andrew B. Kennedy, Joannes J. Westerink, Jane Smith, Kwok Fai Cheung, Mark Hope, and Seizo Tanaka. "Rapid Assessment of Wave and Surge Risk during Landfalling Hurricanes; a Probabilistic Approach." Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering. (2012) • Toro, G.R., A.W. Niedoroda, C.W. Reed, and D. Divoky. "Quadrature-based Approach for the Efficient Evaluation of Surge Hazard." Ocean Engineering (2009) • Vickery, Peter J., and Brian O. Blanton. North Carolina Coastal Flood Analysis System Hurricane Parameter Development Submittal Number 1, Section 5 A Draft Report for the State of North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Project. 2008. • Vickery, Peter J., and DhirajWadhera. "Statistical Models of Holland Pressure Profile Parameter and Radius to Maximum Winds of Hurricanes from Flight-Level Pressure and H*Wind Data." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47.10 (2008): 2497. • Walton, Todd L., Jr. "Distributions for Storm Surge Extremes." Ocean Engineering 27 (2000): 1279-293.

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